引入乘客博弈的民航收益管理决策优化

基于航班收益最大化目的,研究机票浮动定价与座位存量分配控制相结合,给出两者实时动态调整的优化方法,提出一种改进的遗传算法.首次在收益管理系统中融人乘客与航空公司的博弈性,提出收益管理K线图研究思想,以直观反映价格波动和市场变化情况.提出虚拟舱位容量概念,以减少旅客市场的季节性影响.仿真运算结果显示,该方法通过直接获取潜在需求数据,能够提高航班座位利用率,并使航空公司不同航班在原有收益管理系统基础上分别提高2%至10%甚至更高的收益.     

基于蒙特卡洛模拟的贷款组合优化决策方法

通常项目的收益与风险成正比,银行贷款不仅要考虑总体收益最大,同时尽量降低贷款的总体风险,而目前的贷款组合方法不能做到收益和风险的同步优化.通过蒙特卡洛模拟,以贷款项目的财务内部收益率及其波动反映其收益和风险,建立组合收益最大、组合风险最小的贷款组合多目标规划决策模型.分步求解得到满足约束条件的若干贷款有效组合和有效前沿曲线,有效前沿曲线与银行的无差异曲线的交点是满足银行风险偏好的最优贷款组合.该方法直接应用组合收益和组合风险进行贷款组合优化,提高了决策分析精度,银行可以根据自身的需要灵活方便地调整贷款组合中各贷款的权重,降低风险,提高收益,并且通过最优贷款组合达到收益和风险的同步最优化.     

基于一般失望模型的证券组合投资分析

基于Jia&Dyer(2001)[7]的一般失望模型,给出了一种新的非对称风险度量方法,它利用"上偏矩(upper partial mement)"来修正下方风险,不仅只考虑收益低于期望收益率时所带来的损失,而且利用了超过期望收益率时可能带来可观利润的收益.进一步给出了基于该非对称风险度量的组合投资计算方法,并通过上海证券市场的实际数据验证了该方法的有效性和实用性.     

基于VaR收益率约束的贷款组合优化决策模型

本文以贷款的收益率为金融资产的收益,以贷款收益率的波动为标准反映贷款风险,在VaR约束下,以拉格朗日乘子法为工具求二次规划,建立了在既定组合收益范围内,组合风险最小的贷款组合优化决策模型。该模型的特点一是以收益率最大损失的形式、而不是收益额的形式来反应VaR,使组合决策分析更为方便。二是考虑了风险之间的相关性,用组合VaR的收益率最大损失来控制贷款收益率的风险限额;使贷款的分配直接反映了商业银行的风险承受能力。三是在合理的目标收益范围内,给定任意一个决策者期望的收益率,总能找到对应的风险最小的贷款组合,由此模型求出的有效边界,为组合贷款的优化决策提供了科学的方法。     

基于风险偏好的银行贷款组合优化研究

通过蒙特卡洛模拟，以贷款项目的财务内部收益率及其波动反映收益和风险，建立了组合收益最大、组合风险最小的贷款组合多目标规划决策模型。求解模型得到贷款组合有效前沿曲线，有效前沿曲线与无差异曲线的交点为满足银行特定风险偏好的最优贷款组合。该方法直接应用组合收益和组合风险进行贷款组合优化，实现了收益和风险共同最优化，提高了决策分析精度。     

基于利率非平行移动风险控制的资产负债组合优化模型

引入现金流离散度对收益率曲线非平行移动带来的利率风险进行免疫,以银行各项资产和负债的现金流离散度零缺口为约束条件,以银行各项贷款组合收益最大为目标函数,建立了基于利率非平行移动风险控制的资产负债组合优化模型.该模型通过现金流离散度的零缺口免疫匹配银行的资产与负债,控制了利率期限结构非平行移动带来的利率风险.该利率期限结构非平行移动的风险免疫更具有普遍性.通过不同时段的远期收益率来贴现资产和负债的现金流,使现金流离散度的计算更加准确.反映了不同时期收益率变化对各期现金流的影响,提高了现金流离散度的计算精度,改变了现有研究的久期免疫用恒定的名义利率贴现现金流的做法.     

基于非零超额收益假设的基金优选研究

在Kosowski等提出的Bootstrap方法的基础上，以非零的超额收益为假设前提，评价中国市场上基金的业绩表现并进行基金优选.基于2009年3月—2020年6月偏股混合型基金的数据，本文发现中国基金市场整体表现为负的超额收益率.在此基础上，以非零的超额收益为前提，发现Kosowski等提出的Bootstrap方法能够优化基金筛选.最后，在样本外区间、不同市场状态、与晨星基金评级比较以及考虑动态市场超额收益情况下，均发现在非零假设前提下能够挑选出更多显著具有能力的基金经理管理的基金，并且这些基金组合的表现更佳.该结果表明：对于掌握Bootstrap技术的机构投资者，可利用本文提供的方法实现基金优选并以此构建FOF组合为投资者带来更高的收益；对于不具备Bootstrap技术能力的散户投资者，通过聚焦普通回归方法下的超额收益的t值，并选取排序前5%的基金可以较为稳妥地实现基金优选并获得超额收益.     

基于顾客心理期望等待时间的服务策略研究

顾客在排队系统获取服务时，会存在心理上的期望等待时间，该期望会影响顾客在排队系统中的行为变化和流动，从而影响企业收益。本文以传统的M/M/1排队系统为背景，基于顾客存在期望等待时间的前提下，以企业收益最大化为优化目标进行研究。首先，对相应基础理论和模型假设进行介绍；其次，对顾客存在心理期望等待时间情形提出三种新的策略：重新定价、通过折扣对顾客期望值进行调整、提高服务率；然后，分别对上述三种策略进行优化分析，并同现有结果进行比较；研究表明：三种策略都比维持原有定价带来更大收益；当折扣力度较小时或顾客对费用感知强于时间感知时，折扣策略优于重新定价策略；当折扣力度较大或顾客对时间感知强于费用感知时，重新定价策略优于折扣策略；最后，通过对最优结果分析提出相应管理启示。本文的研究对于顾客存在心理期望等待时间的服务定价具有重要的指导意义和实际应用价值。     

虚拟顾客服务系统排队模型

通过对虚拟企业售后服务部门的顾客排队网络的分析 ,确定了一种顾客具有优先权的多级顾客服务排队模型 .以顾客满意度为条件计算出了稳定平衡状态下排队系统的主要指标 ,并从收益、成本和效率等方面建立了排队系统的优化问题 ,从而可得到服务部门最优基准服务能力 .基准服务能力的确定 ,对服务能力的有效安排和组织具有重要的指导意义     

服务设计中确定服务要素组合方案的方法

服务设计通常是指通过确定服务要素组合方案以尽可能满足顾客服务需求的过程,在这一过程中不仅要考虑尽可能地满足顾客的服务需求,而且还要考虑顾客满意度和成本预算.针对服务设计中如何确定服务要素组合方案的问题,提出一种决策分析方法;采用问卷调查方式获取顾客的评价信息,即服务要素对服务需求的满足程度和服务需求满意度的分值信息;依据Kano模型的思想,通过对评价信息进行处理和拟合来确定每个服务需求的满意度函数;基于确定的满意度函数并考虑成本预算,建立以顾客满意度最大化为目标的确定服务要素组合方案的优化模型,通过求解优化模型确定服务要素组合方案.最后,以某航空公司头等舱服务设计为例,说明所提出方法的可行性和有效性.     

Power,authority and legitimacy

Management, human resources, organization, control, leadership, etc., all seem to be just so many euphemisms for power, and this suggests a discourse of management and organization that calls things by their proper name. This paper on the contrary stresses the need to resolve the concept of ‘power’ itself into more differentiated notions, and proposes that clarification may be derived from distinctions once explicit in the vocabulary of Classical antiquity, but lost in modern European languages. It argues that nothing but confusion in thinking about organizations, management and legitimation can result from the failure to recognize that the phenomena this vocabulary identifies and distinguishes are irreducibly different.     

Criteria for selecting a production control philosophy

Logistic objectives constitute a compromise between having short leadtimes and a low volume of work in progress on the one hand and a high resource loading and due date obligation on the other. Miscellaneous production planning approaches offered today provide different combinations of logistic objectives for satisfying a manufacturing strategy. To combine the strength of the various approaches into a unified system, a new approach based on a dynamic and distributed production planning methodology is proposed. To customize the approach, various analyses and specifications have to be made and for that reason some important characteristics and criteria for analysing production control philosophies will be given.     

The social construction of the meaning of acute stressors: a qualitative study of the personal accounts of police officers using a stress counselling service

The police profession is one in which acute stressors are encountered more frequently than in other occupations. Using the personal accounts of 35 police officers attending an in-house stress counselling clinic, the aim of the present study was to provide a qualitative examination of how the institutional context of policing influenced the ways in which acute stressors signified to individual police officers experiencing felt distress. Using the framework of Rational Emotive Behaviour Therapy as an analytical tool, it is argued that beliefs contributing to the experience of felt distress are related to the way in which policing as both an identity and an activity is constructed through the police organizational culture. Not only do these constructions influence the ways in which officers perceive themselves and their environments, but they also operate at the collective level to 'normalize' some emotional responses and to 'pathologize' others which, it is argued, could impact upon the outcomes of interventions such as stress counselling.     

The moderating role of social support in Karasek's job strain model

This paper examines whether social support is a boundary-determining criterion in the job strain model of Karasek (1979). The particular focus is the extent to which different sources of social support, work overload and task control influence job satisfaction, depersonalization and supervisor assessments of work performance. Hypotheses are tested using prospective survey data from 80 clerical staff in a university setting. Results revealed 3-way interactions among levels of support (supervisor, co-worker, non-work), perceived task control and work overload on levels of work performance and employee adjustment (self-report). After controlling for levels of negative affect in all analyses, there was evidence that high levels of supervisor support mitigated against the negative effects of high strain jobs on levels of job satisfaction and reduced reported levels of depersonalization. Moreover, high levels of non-work support and co-worker support also mitigated against the negative effects of high strain jobs on levels of work performance. The results are discussed in terms of the importance of social support networks both at, and beyond, the work context.     

Job insecurity, coping resources and personality dispositions in occupational strain

This paper presents research on the relationships between the work-related stressor of perceived job insecurity and various indicators of occupational strain, taking into account employees' personality dispositions (trait negative and positive affectivity) and coping resources. Respondents were 222 Australian public servants surveyed during organizational restructuring that involved downsizing and threat to job certainty. The research was formulated within an adaptation of Osipow, Doty, and Spokane's (1985) framework of stress-strain-coping that included the possible direct as well as moderating effects of personality dispositions in reporting occupational strain (Parkes, 1990). Findings from hierarchical regression analyses indicate consistent significant independent effects of personality dispositions, coping resources and perceived job insecurity on various indicators of strain. There was also support for the moderating roles of negative affectivity and self-care in the relation between perceived job insecurity and physical strain. Implications for the role of dispositional factors, especially negative affectivity, and the utility of various coping resources in accounting for occupational strain in times of threatened job security are discussed.     

Job stress, job strain, and psychological withdrawal among Dutch university staff: towards a dualprocess model for the effects of occupational stress

This study examined the antecedents of job strain (emotional exhaustion, health complaints) and withdrawal behaviour (e.g. lowered organizational commitment) among a cross-sectional sample of 131 academic staff members of the law department of a large Dutch university. Conservation of resources theory (Hobfoll, 1989) provided the theoretical background for this study. Strains and withdrawal behaviours were expected to be most prominent among those who reported having few resources and/or who reported high job demands. Structural equation modelling revealed that this was indeed the case. As predicted, differential patterns of effects emerged for job demands and job resources. Analysis of the effects of four job-specific stressors revealed that especially the structural aspects of a staff member's teaching task (e.g. the number of students in their classes) contributed strongly to perceived job demands. Theoretical and practical implications of the study are discussed.     

Dermal Uptake of 18 Dilute Aqueous Chemicals: In Vivo Disappearance‐Method Measures Greatly Exceed In Vitro‐Based Predictions

Average rates of total dermal uptake (K_up) from short‐term (e.g., bathing) contact with dilute aqueous organic chemicals (DAOCs) are typically estimated from steady‐state in vitro diffusion‐cell measures of chemical permeability (K_p) through skin into receptor solution. Widely used (“PCR‐vitro”) methods estimate K_up by applying diffusion theory to increase K_p predictions made by a physico‐chemical regression (PCR) model that was fit to a large set of K_p measures. Here, K_up predictions for 18 DAOCs made by three PCR‐vitro models (EPA, NIOSH, and MH) were compared to previous in vivo measures obtained by methods unlikely to underestimate K_up. A new PCR model fit to all 18 measures is accurate to within approximately threefold (r = 0.91, p < 10^?5), but the PCR‐vitro predictions (r > 0.63) all tend to underestimate the K_up measures by mean factors (UF, and p value for testing UF = 1) of 10 (EPA, p < 10^?6), 11 (NIOSH, p < 10^?8), and 6.2 (MH, p = 0.018). For all three PCR‐vitro models, log(UF) correlates negatively with molecular weight (r² = 0.31 to 0.84, p = 0.017 to < 10^?6) but not with log(vapor pressure) as an additional predictor (p > 0.05), so vapor pressure appears not to explain the significant in vivo/PCR‐vitro discrepancy. Until this discrepancy is explained, careful in vivo measures of K_up should be obtained for more chemicals, the expanded in vivo database should be compared to in vitro‐based predictions, and in vivo data should be considered in assessing aqueous dermal exposure and its uncertainty.     

Systems Resilience for Multihazard Environments: Definition,Metrics, and Valuation for Decision Making

The United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction reported that the 2011 natural disasters, including the earthquake and tsunami that struck Japan, resulted in $366 billion in direct damages and 29,782 fatalities worldwide. Storms and floods accounted for up to 70% of the 302 natural disasters worldwide in 2011, with earthquakes producing the greatest number of fatalities. Average annual losses in the United States amount to about $55 billion. Enhancing community and system resilience could lead to massive savings through risk reduction and expeditious recovery. The rational management of such reduction and recovery is facilitated by an appropriate definition of resilience and associated metrics. In this article, a resilience definition is provided that meets a set of requirements with clear relationships to the metrics of the relevant abstract notions of reliability and risk. Those metrics also meet logically consistent requirements drawn from measure theory, and provide a sound basis for the development of effective decision‐making tools for multihazard environments. Improving the resiliency of a system to meet target levels requires the examination of system enhancement alternatives in economic terms, within a decision‐making framework. Relevant decision analysis methods would typically require the examination of resilience based on its valuation by society at large. The article provides methods for valuation and benefit‐cost analysis based on concepts from risk analysis and management.     

UNIX系统性能监控简述及shell系统资源统计程序

本文简要阐述了unix系统中(主要以IBM的AIX为例)进行系统性能管理的几种命令行工具,并通过编写shell实例程序,运用其中提到的工具实现系统资源利用率的统计程序,为做好unix系统管理和调优提供参考.