基金竞赛还是职业生涯关注?——对基金经理风险选择的实证研究

本文选取我国2004年-2009年开放式股票型基金,从基金经理职业生涯关注的角度,研究前期基金业绩相对排名对后期基金经理投资组合风险选择的影响,得出与基金竞赛理论不同的结论:前期业绩排名居前与靠后的基金,后期都会选择高风险.由于基金业绩相对排名与基金经理的从业经历决定了基金经理的职业生涯状况,由此引发职业生涯关注,导致前期业绩相对排名与风险选择之间存在正U型关系,并且基金经理从业经历越欠缺,U型关系越明显.     

市场情绪与基金投资策略：迎合还是修正?

基金投资策略选择是学术界、监管者和市场参与者共同关注的焦点.本文根据行为资产定价理论将基金投资策略量化为组合收益的市场情绪敏感度,首次在微观层面对其按照市场状态分类界定为迎合情绪策略与修正情绪策略,通过理论模型和实证检验探究基金的投资策略选择对其流量、风险和经理努力程度产生的系统影响,从行为委托代理视角剖析基金业绩的影响机制.研究发现：基金采取迎合策略时,对投资者特别是个体投资者更有吸引力,但会对投资者利益造成隐性侵害,表现为基金未来的风险增大、收益降低,且基金经理在无需付出更多努力的情况下可获得更高报酬.进一步分析表明,基金经理为取悦投资者的消极放任行为是其业绩表现不佳的重要原因;基金采取修正策略时,产生的系列影响则完全相反.本研究为中小投资者的投资实践、基金治理与监管,及解释基金市场异象提供了新的思路与启示.     

基金业绩与资金流量: 明星效应与垫底效应

利用 2005 ― 2010 季度基金数据,用部分线性半参数回归方法估计了基金业绩与资金流量的关系曲线,并在此基础上模拟计算并检验了基金经理投资的风险偏好．与之前的研究［1,2］不同,文章结果不支持“赎回异象”假说,并发现中国市场存在明显的“明星效应”和“垫底效应”,即 PFR 曲线随业绩的提高呈上升趋势,并在形态上表现为两头陡峭中间平缓．在委托代理框架下,这意味着基金经理在中期业绩较好时会倾向于承担风险以成为“明星基金”,而在中期业绩较差时则会通过规避风险以避免“垫底”．由于基金投资的风险偏好对于基金业绩有重要影响,该文的结论对于中国公募基金行业的发展和建设有一定借鉴意义．     

我国基金经理投资口碑效应研究

本文考察了四大城市(上海、深圳、北京和广州)各基金系基金经理投资之间的关系。结果发现,同城基金经理投资相互影响显著大于其他城市基金经理的影响。这种现象可由口碑效应解释,同城投资者之间更易通过口头交流传递关于股票的信息和看法,进而影响投资行为。同时发现各城市基金经理倾向于采取相同投资决策,优质上市公司资源有限、基金公司股票池雷同、基金经理生存压力等原因可能导致基金持股趋同,该结果也一定程度上反映出基金管理公司的治理水平存在不足。     

网络传染是“真羊群”还是“伪羊群”?——网络传染程度对资本市场定价效率的影响

基金经理在选股时是否具有独立性以及是否能发挥其专业职能发掘更多企业特质信息对基金经理能力评估以及稳定我国资本市场具有重要意义。为研究基金经理在重仓股配置上的网络传染现象是否能向市场传递企业特质信息进而提高定价效率，本文以我国2006年至2018年开放式基金季度数据为样本，构建了一种新型的投资关系网络—"基金持仓变动相似性多值符号网络"，研究了残差网络聚类系数与股价同步性的关系。研究结果表明，当前我国基金经理在重仓股的选择和资金配置上具有较强的模仿关系和稳定的相似性网络结构，基金持仓变动相似性网络中不存在私有信息和行业信息传递，网络传染现象降低了市场的定价效率。本文研究结论对有效识别基金经理的羊群行为以及防范相关风险等具有重要的理论和现实意义。     

投资组合的行业集中度与基金业绩研究

本文探讨了投资组合的行业集中度与基金业绩之间的关系。采用Kacperczyk等的方法测量各基金的投资组合在13个行业中的资产配置情况,我们发现基金投资组合的行业集中度与基金业绩之间存在显著的负向关系,这说明行业集中度更高的基金业绩落后于那些实行分散化投资的基金。最后,不同子样本期间的考察表明结论是稳健的。因此,我们建议基金经理人在执行更为集中的行业投资策略时,应该保持谨慎的态度。     

主动型基金异常持仓、公司价值与未来股票收益

本文从主动型基金持仓行为的角度来研究公募基金持仓与被持股公司未来股票收益之间的关系。基于目标公司的基本面特征和动量信息,本文将主动型公募基金对目标公司的总持仓分解为正常持仓和异常持仓。本文研究发现,异常持仓可以预测公司未来股票收益：根据异常持仓构造的等权（市值加权）投资组合能获得年化8.60%(11.22%)的超额收益;异常持仓对套利成本高和投资者注意力有限公司的股票有更强的预测能力;另外,异常持仓还可以预测公司未来基本面。本文研究证明基金经理的主动管理是有信息含量的,同时也提出了如何利用该信息的方法。     

行业配置、聚类程度与基金业绩

基金市场是过去20多年市场经济国家发展最迅速、规模最大的大众金融投资工具,基金的筛选难度已经不亚于股票。然而,关于基金的研究多数是基金业绩的归因分析,鲜有从基金经理、基金市场和投资者综合的角度研究基金风险,基金筛选策略的研究更是少之又少。本文首先以Feldman等^[8]构建的美国主动型管理基金市场模型为基础,结合复杂网络方法,提出了适合度量中国基金市场发展程度的行业配置聚类程度指标,并运用基金经理行业配置聚类程度量化了基金经理努力程度。在此基础上,提出基金经理和投资者的优化问题,并推导出均衡策略下基金市场行业配置聚类程度和基金经理努力程度与基金收益的数量关系。然后运用递归估计方法进行实证分析。最后,在理论推导和实证分析的基础上,提出了一个基于基金经理努力程度的基金筛选策略,完善了“理论+实证+策略”的投资组合分析框架。本文的研究结果亦可为FOF投资策略的选择提供参考。     

引导基金模式下协同创新利益分配机制研究

本文构建了创新引导基金模式下的协同创新博弈模型,研究了创新投资基金如何通过协同创新利益分配机制及基金投资策略的设计,激励企业和创新承包方提高协同创新投入,提升协同创新投资规模和绩效;得出了引导基金模式下协同创新最优分配机制和基金投资策略。研究表明:基金应将市场收益所有分配份额交给企业,基金和承包方向企业索取固定收益,从而使企业成为协同创新剩余价值的唯一索取者,激励企业按契约规定进行投资;基金应在满足承包方创新投入资金需求的情况下,尽可能在创新后期阶段才向承包方投资,以激励承包方提高创新投入,最大化基金期望净利润。     

风险投资基金管理者背景特征对基金表现的影响研究

本文以2007—2011年期间成立的风险投资基金为研究对象，实证检验了基金管理机构的执行事务合伙人工作背景对基金表现的影响。本文发现基金管理者的政府工作经历、金融行业相关工作经历及其他VC或资产管理类公司的从业经历会对项目退出比例产生正向影响，但只有政府工作经历才能显著提升项目的IPO比例；在进一步区分上市地点后发现，金融领域的工作经验会对投资项目海外上市提供帮助，这综合说明了风险投资基金管理人不同工作背景对项目退出可能发挥的帮助作用。此外，本文还将风险投资基金按照是否有政府引导资金参与进行分类，发现政府工作背景对普通民营基金业绩表现的影响更大，而金融从业经历对两类基金的退出表现均有显著正向影响。     

利益关联、评级资格管制与基金评级公正性

具有基金评级资格的证券公司与证券投资基金之间存在着紧密而有趣的经济关系,一方面,具有基金评级资格的证券公司可以对基金进行评级,另一方面,基金与证券公司之间可能存在利益关联,具体体现在:1)基金要通过证券公司的交易席位进行交易并相应地给予证券公司交易佣金;2)证券公司可能是投资基金的大股东.那么这两种利益关联会损害证券公司作为基金评级机构的公正性吗？研究发现:1)如果证券公司与投资基金之间存在交易佣金关系或股权关系,那么证券公司会显著提高基金的评级等级;2)通过利益关联获得的基金评级对基金未来业绩解释力明显较低;3)2010年实施基金评价资格管制之后,上述两种现象更为明显.综合研究结果表明,利益关联会损害证券公司作为基金评级机构的公正性,且基金评级资格管制可能进一步加剧了利益关联对评级公正性的损害.     

The efficiency of mutual fund companies: Evidence from an innovative network SBM approach

This paper is the first DEA (Data Envelopment Analysis) evaluation of the efficiency of a sample of mutual fund companies in a large Euro fund industry, i.e. Spain. Our novel network model links the efficiency of the core activities (portfolio management and marketing/distribution) of a mutual fund company to the efficiency of its operational management function. Our results highlight the important networking effects at the marketing stage and question the prime role of portfolio management skills in the overall efficiency of a mutual fund company. The evaluation of robust efficiency clusters indicates that the efficiency rankings obtained with our network model persist significantly along our sample period. Finally, the application of the SBM (Slacks-Based Measure) Variation III to our network model allows us to identify a large number of globally inefficient but locally efficient companies with reference to competitors with similar management resources.     

基金公司竞争策略研究——基于产品创新和机制创新视角

本文以2004-2012年提供开放式基金的基金公司为研究对象,以基金公司市场份额为切入点,利用动态面板模型,检验了基金公司历史业绩、产品创新策略和机制创新策略在基金公司竞争中的有效性。实证结果显示历史业绩是影响基金公司市场竞争力的重要因素,基金投资者偏好具有产品创新能力和机制创新精神的基金公司,并不热衷于投资成立时间久、旗下基金数量众多的老牌金公司,对基金公司股东背景也没有显著偏好。进一步细分市场发现,在股票型基金市场上,实施创造明星策略有利于获得更高市场份额。在债券型基金市场上,提高新基金供给量和相对供给强度是最优策略。与股票型基金市场相同,在混合型基金市场上提供具有实质性创新特征的新基金、增加基金从业者持基的基金数量,有助于获得更大市场份额。因此,基金公司决策层在制定竞争战略时,应当考虑基金投资者对产品创新认知能力的提高和对利益绑定机制的诉求,依据基金类型的不同,设计具有针对性的竞争策略。     

A review of hedge funds and their investor activism: do they help or hurt other equity investors?

Hedge funds tend to be highly activist investors who exercise their ??principal power?? over their portfolio firms. We observe that, compared to other investor types, hedge funds appear to be even more activist than is predicted by a comprehensive Investor Activism Model, due to the unexpectedly large role of several antecedent variables. This conclusion suggests that the relatively lightly regulated environment of hedge funds affects the weighting of conventional activism-antecedent variables. We explore how their access to several investing and trading strategies is allowing hedge funds to redefine investor activism. In the process, we find that, while hedge funds and their activism tend to benefit fellow investors, the potential exists for some specific hedge fund types to expropriate value from minority shareholders, creating ??principal?Cprincipal?? conflict. The potentially detrimental impact of hedge fund activism on other equity investors is demonstrated, illuminating several current policy concerns.     

A Rational Theory of Mutual Funds' Attention Allocation

The question of whether and how mutual fund managers provide valuable services for their clients motivates one of the largest literatures in finance. One candidate explanation is that funds process information about future asset values and use that information to invest in high‐valued assets. But formal theories are scarce because information choice models with many assets are difficult to solve as well as difficult to test. This paper tackles both problems by developing a new attention allocation model that uses the state of the business cycle to predict information choices, which in turn, predict observable patterns of portfolio investments and returns. The predictions about fund portfolios' covariance with payoff shocks, cross‐fund portfolio and return dispersion, and their excess returns are all supported by the data. These findings offer new evidence that some investment managers have skill and that attention is allocated rationally.     

基金系内部交叉补贴行为研究

从基金基本特征—费用、业绩和年龄入手,利用面板数据固定效应模型对基金系内部交叉补贴行为进行考察.发现基金系内部老基金对新基金、高业绩基金对低业绩基金交叉补贴行为最显著,对费用途径考察结果不明显.文章还对基金系特征与基金系内部交叉补贴途径进行研究,发现大规模基金系与小规模基金系相比,内部交叉补贴现象更为明显.     

Multi-horizon Markowitz portfolio performance appraisals: A general approach

This article extends the analysis of multi-horizon mean-variance portfolio analysis in the Morey and Morey [Mutual fund performance appraisals: a multi-horizon perspective with endogenous benchmarking. Omega 1999;27:241–58] article in several ways. First, instead of either proportionally contracting risk dimensions or proportionally expanding return dimensions, a more general efficiency measure simultaneously attempts to reduce risk and to expand return over all time periods. Second, a duality relation is established between this generalized multi-horizon efficiency measure and an indirect mean-variance utility function, underscoring the natural interpretation of this generalized efficiency measure in terms of investor's preferences. Furthermore, the need to properly apply time discounting in multi-horizon mean-variance portfolio problems is argued for. An empirical illustration based on the original mutual fund data set in Morey and Morey [Mutual fund performance appraisals: a multi-horizon perspective with endogenous benchmarking. Omega 1999;27:241–58] is added to contrast the new and the original approaches.     

Inadvertent Systemic Risk in Financial Networks: Venture Capital and Institutional Funds

This paper set out to explore if the observed structure of VC syndication is conducive to pseudo-diversification in the portfolios of the VCs' sources of funds; the institutional fund managers. One hypothesis is tested that states that the observed investment network is significantly riskier than we would expect in a random allocation of risk.Data are employed on the syndication of 20 UK-based VCs, in the 11 years from 1993–2003, along with their interactions within that period with 73 different institutional funds. The hypothesis is tried by means of a z-test developed from the comparison of observed risk scores and the mean of a population of risk-proxies. This population is derived with randomised models.The findings are consistent with the observed structure of VC syndication and institutional fund-VC interactions being conducive to less diversification than expected, particularly where institutional funds invest in just two VCs. This result extends prior research. Chiefly, the study explores a gap in portfolio theory; with mutual dependency between financial agents, risk can be pseudo-diversified, affecting all parties. The data examined in this study relates VC syndication to ineffectiveness in reducing portfolio risk, in contrast with its established association to risk mitigation. Also, it is suggestive of social structure within the VC community that is replicated in interactions with both ventures and institutional fund managers. A full understanding of VC syndication and investment risk should extend beyond its prior focus on VC firms and investee ventures, and also encompass the source of funds.This paper uses case studies and a statistical model to explore the limitations of portfolio theory in the presence of investment networks with interacting agents. The research highlights that such investment networks create a kind of systemic risk that is neither particularly rare nor without disastrous precedent.     

Casting a Wide Net for Innovation: Mediating Effect of R&D Human and Social Capital to Unlock the Value from Alliance Portfolio Diversity

This paper examines the performance effects associated with different alliance portfolio configurations in terms of geographical location and partner type. Based on these distinctions, the authors hypothesize that more diverse alliance portfolios enable firms to gain and exploit innovation opportunities. Additionally, the mediating effects of R&D human and social capital on the R&D alliance portfolio diversity–innovation performance relationship are explored. The authors reason that the absorptive capacity of R&D intellectual capital determines a firm's potential gains from highly diverse alliance portfolios. From panel data of manufacturing firms in Spain for the period 2008–2013, the results confirm the inverted U‐shaped relationship between alliance portfolio diversity and firm innovation performance, implying that both insufficient and excessive alliance portfolio diversity may be detrimental to firm innovativeness. Additionally, R&D human and social capital partially mediates the R&D alliance diversity–innovation performance relationship, emphasizing the importance of internal capabilities to leverage the benefits of highly diverse alliance portfolios. These findings add a dynamic dimension to the conceptualization of alliance portfolios and how firms create value by balancing explorative and exploitative alliances.     

Entrepreneurial Firms and Downstream Alliance Partnerships: Impact of Portfolio Depth and Scope on Technology Innovation and Commercialization Success

To achieve technology innovation and commercialization (TIC) success under complex, protracted, and uncertain product development cycles, entrepreneurial firms engage in downstream alliance partnerships with mainstream industry players. In this study, we examine two specific characteristics of the entrepreneurial firm's downstream alliance portfolio (depth and scope) and their impact on TIC success. Employing a sample of 728 biotech firms and their partnerships with pharmaceutical companies, we find that while portfolio depth and scope separately have positive impact on success, the relationship between portfolio scope and success is additionally moderated by portfolio depth. Further, insights from post hoc interviews also suggest that though it is challenging for entrepreneurial firms to incorporate both depth and scope in alliance partnerships, those that optimally combine both can achieve higher TIC success.