常住人口迁移与上海城市发展研究

文章定量说明“移民城市”是上海大都市的重要特征,人口迁移是城市发展的巨大引擎。近5年来,上海市常住人口迁移数量大约为户籍人口迁移的6.3倍,常住人口迁移比户籍人口迁移对城市经济增长的贡献率更高。作者指出,传统的建立在户籍制度上的人口迁移统计和人口管理体制已经不适应,并将越来越不能适应人口研究、分区域人口预测和城市动态管理的需要;提出完善常住人口迁移统计,需要积极引导人口迁移促进城市发展,需要大力推动城市户籍体制等人口管理制度的改革。     

书讯

彭勋等编著的《人口迁移与社会发展——人口迁移学》,最近由山东大学出版社出版,该书第一次把人口迁移的知识理论系统化,并对人口迁移的一些新领域进行大胆探索,从而形成了一个新学科:人口迁移学。该书分15章35节.计34万余字.人口迁移变动随着社会经济的发展越来越频繁,它对社会各个方面的影响越来越重要,加强对人口迁移变动的研究是时代的需要,也是我们社会主义建设的需要,人口迁移学的创建将推动人们对人口迁移的研究,注意发挥人口迁移在社会各个方面的积极作用.为社会进步服务.     

陕西省际人口迁移状况及其特点

人口迁移是重要的人口社会现象,并随着经济的发展特别是工业化现代化的发展而逐渐增强。80年代以来,在改革开放、搞活经济的新形势下,社会主义商品经济有了很大发展,人口迁移和流动也随之呈逐年增强趋势。     

中国经济体制改革以来省际人口迁移区域模式及其变化

本文主要根据人口迁移选择指数 ,系统考察了中国经济体制改革以来省际人口迁移的区域模式及其变化趋势。发现经济体制改革以来 ,中国省际人口迁移的“单向梯度东移”模式 ,已开始出现东强西弱非对称“双向”迁移的变化 ;在人口迁移流向继续主要向东部地带“集中”的同时 ,迁移吸引中心也正发生着量的不断扩大的“多极化”和质的持续提高的“强势化” ;已逐步形成对塑造中国省际人口迁移区域模式具有重要影响的北京、上海两大全国级强势吸引中心和广东、新疆两大地区级强势吸引中心     

《人口迁移与发展——中国改革开放以来的实证》评介

人类从产生之日始,就不断地移动。人类社会发展的历史,也是人口不断迁移的历史。没有人口迁移,就没有社会的发展,没有人类的现代化。进入21世纪以来,人口迁移更趋活跃。国际移民成为当今全球化进程中一个充满活力的组成部分;在各国内部,人口迁移也异常地活跃。在我国,自20世纪8     

加强人口迁移流动和城市化研究促进城乡协调发展--在"中国现代化进程中的人口迁移流动和城市化"学术讨论会上的讲话

由中国人口学会和中国人民大学人口与发展研究中心主办的“中国现代化进程中的人口迁移流动和城市化”学术讨论会今天开幕了。我代表中国人口学会对研讨会的召开表示热烈的祝贺 !这次研讨会讨论的主题直接关系到我国社会主义现代化的进程 ,十分重要。在我国城市化已经进入快速发展的时期 ,许多相关问题亟待深入研究。在这个时候 ,这么多有专门研究的专家学者聚集在一起进行研讨 ,也是及时的。我相信 ,通过深入的研讨一定能为解决这些问题提出有效的对策建议。最近 2 0年来 ,我国人口迁移和人口流动很活跃。全国流动人口规模已经达到 1亿多人…     

中国“乡-城”人口迁移规模的测算与分析（1979-2003）

改革开放以后,中国每年到底有多少农村人口迁移城镇成为城镇常住人口,一直是个未知的谜。本文借助现有的统计资料对历年中国“乡-城”人口迁移的具体规模进行了测算,总结了改革开放以来中国“乡-城”人口迁移的变动规律。     

人口迁移理论研究的拓新之作——评《人口迁移与社会发展——人口迁移学》

由山东大学出版社出版,彭勋教授等编著的《人口迁移与社会发展——人口迁移学》(以下简称“彭著”)一书问世了,这是国家教委博士点基金资助的科研项目.     

1985～2000年我国人口迁移对区域经济差异的均衡作用研究

经济体制改革后的区域经济差异持续扩大是促动我国人口迁移空前活跃的主要因素 ,而日趋活跃的人口迁移亦对经济社会的发展及区域差异变动产生了深刻的影响。本文的研究将人口迁移与区域经济结合起来 ,通过测算我国 1 985～ 1 990、 1 990～ 1 995和 1 995～ 2 0 0 0年各省区在人口迁移前后“人口-GDP”的基尼系数变化趋势 ,验证人口迁移对区域经济发展不均衡的减缓作用。在此基础上 ,测算相应时段区域经济均衡发展情况下的各区域理论人口规模和人口迁移潜力 ,并分析了我国迁移人口的释放速度。     

影响我国省际人口迁移的个人特征分析──兼论“时间”因素在人口迁移研究中的重要性

利用１９８８年全国生育节育抽样调查资料，本文以ｌｏｇｉｓｔｉｃ回归模型分析了影响我国省际人口迁移的个人特征。研究结果表明：年龄、性别、受教育水平和婚姻状况等个人特征在决定个人是否进行省际人口迁移方面有着显著影响作用。 利用该次调查提供的省际人口迁移“时间”信息，本文对“时间”因素在人口迁移研究中的重要性进行了分析。结果表明：利用人口迁移发生时点上的个人特征来分析个人进行省际人口迁移的概率，比利用调查时点上的个人特征来分析个人进行省际人口迁移的概率，有明显的改善作用。“时间”因素在人口迁移研究中有着十分重要的影响作用。     

人口现代化"和"生育现代化":人口发展与计划生育工作的根本目标

人口现代化和生育现代化是人口发展与计划生育工作的根本目标。计划生育就是为了实现生育的现代化,进而来推进人口的现代化。如果说人口现代化是人口发展的战略目标,那么生育现代化就是计划生育事业的战略目标。从政策的角度探讨两大命题的现实意义,在此基础上提出了稳定低生育水平的"三合一"工程。     

Demographic Responses And Population Change

Most Western societies have gone through a process of population change during the past 100-150 years. One important aspect is the socalled demographic transition: the shift from high to low birth and death rates, and accelerated growth resulting from the lag between falling mortality and falling fertility, in national populations. Equally important has been the "rural-to-urban" transition, which involved the migration of millions of people from rural areas. It is hypothesized, following the suggestion of Davis (Theory of the Multi-Phasic Demographic Response), that the adjustment in reproductive behavior made by a community in response to a rising "strain," such as that resulting from higher natural increase, is likely to differ depending upon the ease with which the community can relieve the strain through out migration. Relationships among such characteristics of modernization as intensity of industrialization, speed of urbanization, structural changes in the agricultural system, and declining fertility are implied. Case studies of England and Sweden lend support to the hypothesis: more rapid urban-industrial development, larger-scale movement from rural areas, and a delayed decline in the rural birth rate distinguish the English transition.     

关于广州市对外来人口实行IC智能卡管理的个案调查

广州市对外来人口实行IC智能卡管理 ,跟原来的纸质暂住证管理制度相比 ,IC卡管理是一次重大的制度创新 ,具有积极的进步意义 ,它实现了管理功能和管理形式上的创新。不可否认 ,广州市IC卡管理施行过程中也存在一些问题 :如便民功能欠缺、适用范围有限、权益内容片面 ,需要在实践中不断完善     

对济南市由生育现代化向人口现代化迈进的分析和认识

人口现代化是生育现代化的更高层次，也是实现社会主义现代化的基础、前提和条件。济南市已基本实现了生育现代化，具备了向人口现代化迈进的基本条件，但也存在一些弱点和难点。要实现人口现代化还必须从人口数量、质量、结构、分布、就业等多方面努力，促其实现。     

人口现代化的测度指标体系构建问题研究

研究人口现代化,必须很好解决的一个问题就是要确定并建立一套可供参照的人口现代化指标体系。通过对人口现代化理论的基本把握,在确定数据样本及基本构建方法的基础上,以人口再生产类型现代化、人口素质现代化、人口结构现代化和逆人口现代化作为基本测度内容,以最能反映基本测度内容的指标群来构成考量人口现代化水平的通用指标体系。构建具有国际可比性或区域可比性、相对完善而更具指标体系特征和应用价值的人口现代化测度指标,为制定相应的人口发展战略、政策、规划等提供科学依据。     

Internal Migration of the Foreign-Born: Population Concentration or Dispersion?

Recent analyses of the 1990 census migration data have pointed to the different demographic effects of internal migration and immigration. States and metropolitan areas either have large population gains through immigration or internal migration, but rarely both, leading to what has been labeled as an increasing demographic balkanization of the U.S. population. This paper explores the proposition that the internal migration of the foreign-born (pre-1985 arrivals) is likely to reinforce the demographic effects of immigration. Analysis is based on the five-percent Public Use Microdata file of the U.S. Census, with the demographic effects evaluated at both the state and metropolitan area levels. Distinctions were also made between nineteen separate national origin groups, increasing the detail of the analysis. Despite high internal migration rates and large net migration, there was little change in the overall distribution and concentration of the foreign-born population between 1985 and 1990. More important, however, distinctions were found across the national origin groups. While secondary migration leads to dispersion among some groups, other groups were becoming increasingly concentrated, suggesting that demographic balkanization of the American population is more variable than the literature would suggest.     

全面建设小康社会阶段的人口现代化

全面建设小康社会是现代化发展的新阶段,人口现代化是社会现代化的应有之义,更是全面建设小康社会的重要目标之一。新时期,我国人口现代化的形势十分严峻,要实现小康社会的目标和基本实现现代化,就必须加快人口现代化进程,实现人口与社会、经济、资源、环境的可持续发展。     

Southern Negro Migration: Social And Economic Components Of An Ecological Model

This paper considers social and economic correlates of age-specific 1950-1960 net migration of Negro males from a sample of 150 southern counties. A model is developed with five components: (1) economic activity and urbanization, (2) white traditionalism, (3) demographic and ecological pressure, (4) nonwhite poverty, and (5) nonwhite home ownership. The dominant migration forces, as evidenced by correlations with component indicator variables, are the "pull" factor of change in nonprimary industrial employment, the "push" factor of population pressure in the nonwhite rural-farm sector, and the "push" of white traditionalism. However, the significance of model components varied when analyzed along age and industrial development continua. In the younger age groupings, industrial employment growth, population pressure, and white traditionalism were dominant migratory forces while in the older age groupings, industrial employment growth and non-home ownership were most significant. For Negro males in agricultural counties, the major migration propellents appeared to be the "push" of population pressure in the rural farm sector and non-ownership of homes. On the other hand the statistical explanation for Negro migration in more industrialized southern counties rests primarily with the "pull" of increased employment in non-primary industries along with population pressure. The importance of the findings for migration theory is discussed.     

Migration - a mixed blessing

Regarding migration, the current thinking is that certain aspects of migration have important implications for population planning. Focus here is on the role of migration and its influence on integrated development programs. Although individuals who migrate to cities are generally from the more privileged socioeconomic groups within the rural area, it is not accurate to identify them as the "cream of the rural population." Present population policies do consider the fact that 70 to 80% of the people live in rural areas, yet population policies give only lip service to migration policies. In response to a question as to whether urbanization is conducive to pro- to anti-natal tendencies in migrating families the responses varied. 1 opinion was that there is no evidence that urbanization and the natality behavior of migrating families is significantly related, while other opinions identified a relationship between anti-natal behavior and migration. Rural development and rural growth centers do seem to help alleviate population problems of rural and urban areas, but their success is very dependent on the kind of rural development programs and the extent of services provided through the growth center. The following are among the advantages to "planned migration" that can be used to strengthen population policies: 1) effective utilization of manpower; 2) balanced regional development; 3) further exploitation of natural resources; and 4) reducing the various problems in urban regions. Many do believe that international migration is a feasible solution to population problems in the global context.     

Temporal and spatial variation in age-specific net migration in the United States

As fertility differences in the United States diminish, population redistribution trends are increasingly dependent on migration. This research used newly developed county-level age-specific net migration estimates for the 1990s, supplemented with longitudinal age-specific migration data spanning the prior 40 years, to ascertain whether there are clear longitudinal trends in age-specific net migration and to determine if there is spatial clustering in the migration patterns. The analysis confirmed the continuation into the 1990s of distinct net migration "signature patterns" for most types of counties, although there was temporal variation in the overall volume of migration across the five decades. A spatial autocorrelation analysis revealed large, geographically contiguous regions of net in-migration (in particular, Florida and the Southwest) and geographically contiguous regions of net out-migration (the Great Plains, in particular) that persisted over time. Yet the patterns of spatial concentration and fragmentation over time in these migration data demonstrate the relevance of this "neighborhood" approach to understanding spatiotemporal change in migration.