Strategic HR Management with an Aging Workforce: Using Demographic Models to Determine Optimal Employment Policies

A key component of the strategic plan for any company is the determination of the optimal number of workers needed to produce the desired level of output. Unless workers of different ages have the same skills and productivity, managers must also decide on the best age structure of their workforce and adopt compensation and employment policies to achieve these objectives. Employer responses to the shifts in the demand for their output impact the age distribution of the workforce while employment and compensation policies influence age specific hiring, retention, and retirement rates. This paper examines how demographic models can be used to project the future age structure of a labor force. In addition, we describe how compensation policies can be used to alter trends in the age distribution of employees. Thus, employers can develop strategic plans for achieving the desired labor force.     

Macro and micro contexts of dependency rates: An illustration with peruvian data

This research contributes to the academic dialogue about the socioeconomic significance of rapid population growth by examining changes in age composition and household structure during a transitional period of demographic change. Two propositions relating changes in the size and age composition of households to the demographic transition are formulated and tested using Peruvian census and survey data. Results show a systematic pattern of change wherein the average annual percent increase in the number of households offsets the rate of population growth when the disequilibrium between mortality and fertility rates is greatest. The translation of aggregate increase into households is mediated by shifts in the distribution of households by size. It is inappropriate to conclude that larger families necessarily have higher dependency burdens or that they are worse off in an economic sense compared to smaller households because increments in size are not automatically translated into equivalent increases in age or economic dependency. In part, this is due to the influence of extension patterns on the age and labor force composition of households. Policy implications and a research agenda are discussed in the concluding section.An earlier version was presented at the 7th National Meeting of the Latin American Studies Association, Houston, Texas, November 2–5, 1977. I gratefully acknowledge critical comments from Michael E. Conroy, Harley L. Browning, A. Eugene Havens, Halliman Winsborough, and two anonymous reviewers. Research support for this paper was provided by the College of Agricultural and Life Sciences.     

Replacement Migration Revisited: Simulations of the Effects of Selected Population and Labor Market Strategies for the Aging Europe, 2002–2052

This paper contains the selected results of research concerning the impact of international migration on population dynamics and labor force resources in 27 European countries over the 2002–2052 period. The study presents a set of simulations prepared under various assumptions on target population size and selected proxy indicators of population and labor force structures. The concept of “replacement migration’’ is used to illustrate the magnitude of the expected deficit and structural imbalance of the population and labor force in the first half of the 21st century. The results are the basis for making general recommendations for future population, migration, and labor market policy strategies in Europe, taking into account the long-term plausibility of the proposed solutions. It is argued that only a combination of policies aimed at increasing fertility and labor force participation, together with reasonable-level immigration, can help meet socioeconomic challenges posed by population aging.     

新农保对中国农村老年人劳动时间供给的影响

随着农村青壮年劳动力大规模转移，我国农村劳动力老龄化趋势不断加剧，我国农业生产可持续发展面临挑战，在这一背景下对农村老年人劳动时间供给状况进行研究显得十分必要。从2009年开始我国实施了“新农保”政策，而这一政策的实施是否会对老年人农业劳动时间供给产生影响，如有则影响程度又如何呢？基于此本文运用倾向值匹配方法以控制老年人参与“新农保”的自选择所引起的内生性问题，利用农业部全国抽样调查数据分析了我国现行的“新农保”制度对于农村老年人劳动时间供给的影响。研究表明：农村老年人参与“新农保”后不会完全停止劳动供给，但会显著减少劳动时间；参与“新农保”的老年人劳动时间减少的幅度有限，老年人总劳动时间、农业劳动时间、外出从事非农劳动时间仅分别减少了7.06天、5.58天、3.53天；在相同的养老保障水平下老年人劳动时间减少程度在地区间呈现出“西部＞中部＞东部”的特点。     

中国劳动力的从业状态及其差异分析

随着人口老龄化程度的不断加深，学界对劳动力状况的研究呈现数量、结构、质量并重的局面。本文利用2012年CLDS数据，对中国劳动力群体进行了基于雇员、雇主、自雇、务农四种从业状态的人口学描述，并分析了四种从业状态的劳动力群体在人力资本、工作时间与场所、收入与社会保障、工作评价、工作价值观及社会阶层认同等方面的差异。这些差异对相关劳动政策的制定具有一定的启发意义。     

Japanese response to an aging labor force

Slowing population growth in Japan has led to concern about aging of the labor force in the context of the seniority wage and lifetime employment systems. There is no question that the labor force will age rapidly in the future. However, Japanese labor force institutions are more flexible than most Western observers have thought, and appropriate response to the changing demographic situation has already begun. The Japanese government and private enterprises are devising innovative policies for accommodating an older labor force.The author thanks the staff of the East-West Population Institute for assistance in the production of this article. In addition, the support of the Nihon University Population Research Institute is gratefully acknowledged.     

改革开放以来我国对外劳务输出发展研究

中国正在努力完成从人口大国到人力资源大国的转变,并实施"走出去"战略。在这一背景之下,积极参与国际劳务市场,促进我国的人力资源开发,将具有重要的现实意义。积极开展对外劳务合作,将会促使我国劳动力资源更加有效地参与国际劳务市场。为了更好地开展对外劳务输出,需要认真研究相关各国劳动力资源的未来变化趋势,及时掌握各国劳动力市场供需情况、有关劳务政策新动向以及市场变化情况等。这样才能更好地制定劳务输出计划,扩大劳务输出规模。在增加劳务输出数量的同时,还需要不断提高劳务人员的综合素质。     

Economic development and labor force participation of older persons

The effect of economic development on labor force participation rates of older men and women is examined using national data for 134 countries. The analysis provides new insights into the evolution of retirement patterns with rising personal income, slowing population growth, the aging of the population, and shifts in the composition of employment. The analysis indicates a negative relationship between per capita income and labor force participation rates. This relationship is stronger for older men than for older women and is most apparent among middle income countries. An older population is associated with lower participation rates for older men and higher widow rates produce higher participation rates among older women. Industrial changes such as a decline in the proportion of the labor force employed in agriculture lower the proportion of older persons in the labor force. Finally, national social security policies are shown to impact the proportion of older persons that remains in the labor force.     

我国人口年龄结构与出口商品结构变动的灰色关联分析

在对人口年龄结构变动及劳动密集型产品出口比重变动进行分析的基础上,运用灰色关联分析实证研究了人口年龄结构与出口商品结构之间的关系,得出以下结论：第一,人口年龄结构与出口商品结构之间具有很高的相关关系,人口年龄结构变化势必影响我国未来出口商品结构。第二,我国未来的劳动年龄人口比重会处于下降的趋势,而老年人口比重将会上升。第三,我国劳动密集型产品的出口比重虽在不断下降,但仍处于较高水平,这势必影响我国在国际分工中的地位。第四,汇率与出口商品结构之间的相关度并不高,这需要引起政府在制定相关外汇政策时的注意。     

我国未来城镇人口规模及人口结构变动预测

对城镇人口规模和结构变动给予合理预测，有助于政府预估社会的劳动力供给和养老压力，进而制定合理高效的社会保障政策和进行相应政策调整。本文从规范的人口学角度，采用队列要素法通过年龄移算，在考虑城镇人口基数、出生率、死亡率、性别比以及城市化背景下乡城人口的净迁移率等多个参数的情况下，通过编制我国城镇人口生命表．对从现在起至未来2030年的时间内我国城镇人口的规模和结构进行动态预测，从而为我国制定合理而有针对性的城镇人口政策和经济政策提供参考。     

我国制造业结构与劳动力素质结构吻合度分析——兼论“民工荒”、“技工荒”与大学生就业难问题

基于要素密集度与受教育程度分别给出了考查制造业结构与劳动力素质结构的方法,测算并分析了2006～2010年全国、东部、中部和西部地区制造业结构与劳动力素质结构变动状况。在合理选择测度方法的基础上,对上述地区制造业结构与劳动力素质结构的吻合度进行了测算。结果表明,全国范围东部和西部地区制造业结构与劳动力素质结构的吻合度是逐步提高的。从制造业结构与劳动力素质结构是否吻合的视角,分析讨论了"民工荒"、"技工荒"与大学生就业难问题产生的原因,提出了促进制造业转型升级和推动职业教育与高等教育改革发展的相关对策建议。     

Local labor markets,children and labor force participation of wives

Most research on married women’s labor force participation relates characteristics of individual women to their probability of labor force participation. Some studies relate characteristics of geographic areas to average labor force participation rates in those areas, although these aggregate level analyses are usually gross tests of ideas about individuallevel processes. Here we take a quintessentially sociological perspective and seek to understand how characteristics of geographic areas structure the relationship between properties of individual women and their probabilities oflabor force participation. Our analysis has two steps. In step one, we fit individual-level probit models of married women’s probability of labor force participation. A separate model is fitted in each of 409 areas using 1970 Census data, and the relationship between individual characteristics and labor force participation is found to vary substantially across areas. In step two, we attempt to explain areal variation in the effects of women’s children on their labor force participation. We hypothesize that the effect of children on their mothers’ labor force participation is a function ofthe cost and availability of childcare, and of the “convenience” of jobs for working mothers in the places where the mothers live. Measures of childcare cost, childcare availability and job convenience are developed. Weighted least squares analyses of probit coefficients from the first stage are, in general, very consistent with our findings, and suggest that the approach taken in this paper is likely to be a fruitful one for future studies.     

东北三省劳动力供给现状及趋势分析

目前,东北三省正处在劳动年龄人口占人口比重最高的人口转变时期,关注劳动力供给发展趋势及其内在变化对经济社会的发展十分必要。未来几十年内,东北三省劳动力供给总量表现为先上升,2010年将到达峰值,以后呈现逐年下降的趋势。劳动技能人口分布不均衡,劳动年龄人口将面临老化等问题。     

当代劳动力参与水平和模式变动研究

文章以世界劳工组织和联合国发布的劳动力参与相关数据为基础,应用STATA面板数据模型和AMOS结构方程模型,对当代分性别劳动力参与水平和模式变动趋势及其影响因素进行分析。研究发现,当代男性劳动力参与率持续降低,女性劳动力参与率先升后降。转变的基本规律是向劳动力参与时间不断缩短,学习和自由发展时间不断延长的方向发展。经济、教育、低龄组的劳动力参与率和人口年龄结构对这一转变有重要影响。加强学习型社会建设,普遍提高受教育年限,降低低龄组、次低龄组的劳动力参与率,在增加劳动力数量、质量供给方面具有根本性作用。     

American education: the challenge of change

The American education system is being challenged to raise the academic achievement of students to prepare them for the jobs of the future. Yet many demographic, as well as economic and social factors, are making the task more difficult. Low birth rates, especially among non-Hispanic whites, along with high immigration rates, have increased the share of minority and non-English students in public schools. The rise in single-parent families has increased the number of poor students and migration from the cities to the suburbs has concentrated poor and minority students in inner city schools. These same children will make up a greater share of the future labor force. At the same time, the aging of the general population may lessen the commitment of homeowners- -whose taxes pay between 1/3 and 1/2 of education costs. The aging labor force may bring a shortage of qualified teachers, particularly in specialized subject areas. Poor and minority students generally have below average academic skills and are more likely to drop out of high school than non-minority students. However, the skills of American students rank below those of most other industrialized nations, calling into question the ability of Americans to succeed in an increasingly international economic system. How can schools be improved and minority student achievement be enhanced? Reforms of education finance systems, court-ordered integration, and stiffer requirements for teachers and for graduation from high school are among many attempts to meet the immense challenges faced by American schools.     

中国城市居民劳动供给行为特征

经过40多年的改革开放和计划生育政策实施,我国城市居民家庭规模、家庭财富、受教育程度等影响劳动供给行为的因素均发生了巨大变化。这种变化对就业政策的制定和相关福利政策的实施都有较大影响。运用来自29个省市6675个城市家庭、8771个居民的调查数据对我国城市居民劳动供给行为进行了研究。结果表明:我国城市居民劳动供给曲线整体上呈现向右上方倾斜的特征,随着工资上涨,劳动者工作时间随之增长,但是工资弹性仅有0.52,处于缺乏弹性的区间;分类型看,女性、户主、受教育程度较低者工资弹性较大,对工资变动更加敏感;女性、户主、受教育程度较高者收入弹性更大,对收入变动更加敏感;分年龄阶段看,18—30岁的新生代劳动力工作时间受工资和非工资收入影响均不显著,31—45岁的劳动力比45岁以上劳动力工资弹性和收入弹性更高,对工资和非工资收入更加敏感。本文的研究结果对细化实施就业政策和制定相关福利政策具有一定启示作用。     

关于我国农村剩余劳动力数量测算方法的研究述评

本文对关于我国农村剩余劳动力数量测算方法的研究进行了综述,根据各种方法的测算基础、测算思路及其特征,笔者将其分为六类：简单计算法、国际比较法、生产函数法、总量分解法、两部门（地区）法和其他方法（统计指标比对法、数理与计量经济模型法、综合法）等。在对各类方法进行了详细阐述及评价的基础上,笔者提出了自己的观点,即应当根据其特点,综合使用各类方法从不同角度测算我国农村剩余劳动力的数量。另外,笔者还认为国家统计部门应当适当考虑学术界的研究需要,我国农村剩余劳动力的年龄、教育等结构问题应当成为进一步研究的重点。     

Testing local level labor force and unemployment projections

The labor force projections perform well, even for small areas, which suggests that changes in local labor force participation rates can be approximated by national changes. In fact, the mean absolute percent errors are low even when the previously calculated population projections are used. The unemployment projections do not do as well, and using 1980 census labor force data instead of previously calculated labor force projections offers no improvement in the results. A two-step study is needed to determine why the errors are so large. First, the state level changes from 1970 to 1980 should be compared with national changes to determine the difference in unemployment rate changes by race and sex. Second, state level data on the occupational mix should be examined for the relationship between this and the changes in state level unemployment rates by race and sex. It is hypothesized that the first step will show that even state level changes in unemployment rates by race and sex cannot be well approximated by the national changes and the second step will show that some of the variation can be explained by state differences in occupational mix. Further studies should be made to determine how the calculation of national changes affects the results. Changes in labor force participation rates seem to follow trends, and therefore extrapolation may not have much effect on the results. Although using the actual changes in unemployment from 1970 to the latest year available as a proxy for the changes from 1970 to the target year may have a serious detrimental effect on the unemployment projections, if some of the variation in the national changes in race and sex can be explained and some adjustments made, the actual changes may be the best proxy to use.     

人口学视角下的产业集聚综述

20世纪70年代开始,世界范围内掀起了产业集聚研究热潮。随着研究的深入,相关研究也不再囿于区域经济学和经济地理学的藩篱。从人口学视角考察产业集聚也是一种新的学术探索,通过对国内外学者相关文献的梳理,发现产业集聚要求有一定规模的人口(劳动力)作为基础,但是人口质量的作用更显著,且通过两种途径影响产业集聚:一是不同专业技术知识和特长的劳动力或技术人才组成的专业化人才市场,为产业集聚提供必要的优质人力资本;二是教育机构、科研机构和高素质人才对高科技产业集聚的影响。与此同时,制造业向某一区域集聚的同时伴随着较大规模的人口流动,这点在国外经验性文献和中国的现实数据中都得到佐证。     

Present and forecasted demographic problems in Poland to the year 2010

The author describes potential future demographic trends in Poland, with attention to economic conditions, the labor force, demographic aging, family allowances, excess mortality, population size, and age distribution.