运营滞后与信用担保互换下的项目投资决策模型

在项目投资面临运营滞后以及债务融资约束的情形下，基于实物期权框架构建了企业家签订信用担保互换契约的两阶段投资决策模型。运用动态规划以及均衡定价方法，给出了企业家股权及期权价值的显示表达，得到了两个阶段担保成本满足的代数方程，并进一步分析了运营滞后和信用担保下企业家的最优投资决策问题。数值结果表明：外部运营时滞会提高杠杆率，导致企业家提前投资，同时会提高企业家第一阶段债务融资的担保成本，但会降低第二阶段债务融资的担保成本；随第一阶段投资额度逐渐增大，企业家的最优投资水平呈U型变化，第一阶段债务融资时的担保成本单调递减，而第二段债务融资时的担保成本呈现倒U型；企业家两个阶段的融资缺口对项目最优投资水平、最优破产水平以及担保成本有显著影响。     

创新生态系统主体技术策略研究——基于领先企业与跟随企业的演化博弈与仿真

创新生态系统内主体基于知识的博弈不仅关乎个体的生存和发展，也影响创新生态系统的演进.文章从群体演化博弈视角，研究了差异性环境下创新生态系统主体创新保护策略及跟随策略选择问题.先后构建非对称演化博弈模型和多智能体仿真模型，分析了制度、生态、技术等因素对创新生态系统演化均衡稳定性及演化稳定策略的影响.研究发现：专利运营及维权成本、救济力度、政府补贴、技术替代与模仿相对难度是影响系统演化均衡的关键因素；基于上述因素形成的不同情境，系统涌现四种均衡状态：(专利，模仿)、(专利，替代)、(技术秘密，模仿)、主体策略规律性持续波动；仿真模型呈现随机波动，在趋势上符合演化稳定分析结果；合作网络密集度高、学习搜索范围广时，由于主体交互性增强，决策不确定性下降、有效性提高，各群体长期演化趋向于平均收益期望大的策略.信息模糊度高时，决策不确定性及系统波动幅度增加，群体间策略交互制约作用减弱，系统长期演化偏离演化稳定分析结果.     

集成博弈和多智能体的人群工作互动行为研究

基于进化博弈视角,对人群工作互动行为进行多智能体模拟研究.建立了收益和惩罚共享的群体工作收益博弈模型,考虑工作个体的个性决策特征,设计基于历史信息和个体决策特性的混合学习规则,并用多智能体方法对群体工作场景进行描述.在Repast类库基础上,用Ja-va实现该多智能体模拟系统.模拟结果表明:1)群体规模对宏观工作趋势影...     

非对称企业合作创新的进化博弈模型分析

转型深化期,合作创新愈来愈多的在不同产业或规模、实力不同的非对称企业间开展。但实践表明,非对称企业间的合作创新关系却大多难以长久维持,合作关系常因合作一方单方面违约而瓦解,近年来不乏研发联盟在合作一段时间后"突然"解散的例证。论文针对这一现实问题,运用进化博弈理论,在前人相关研究基础上,引入合作创新超额收益、违约额外收益、超额收益分配系数和违约成本等影响因素,构造不同产业或规模、实力不同的两家非对称企业合作创新的进化博弈模型,对合作创新策略做进化博弈分析,判断策略的进化稳定性,分析非对称企业间进行合作创新的策略选择。研究表明:如企业违约而获得的额外净收益大于继续合作创新所获得的超额收益,则企业策略选择将视对方策略选择概率而定,但合作创新终将因一方企业违约而终止;如企业违约而获得的额外净收益小于继续合作创新所获得的超额收益,则企业策略选择将不受对方策略选择影响,合作创新终会因双方企业遵守合作契约而得到维持。     

企业家道德发展阶段模型多案例探索研究

通过理论和实践研究提出了企业家道德发展四阶段理论,把企业家道德发展划分为道德失范性阶段、道德遵从性阶段、道德资本性阶段和道德皈依性阶段,并构建了企业家道德发展阶段模型。基于此探讨了企业家道德进化的方略问题。这有助于用动态发展的眼光看待企业家道德,从而指导企业家审视其道德状态,明确其道德修炼方向。     

协调型制度的进化博弈分析

运用进化博弈论方法来研究协调型制度,将其定义为协调博弈的进化稳定策略均衡.指出协调博弈的多重均衡导致了制度的多样性,于是不同制度间的效率差异产生了制度变迁的压力,但是制度变迁能否实现还取决于与制度所对应的均衡是否具有随机稳定性.     

研发项目投资决策与最优政府补贴研究

补贴是政府支持企业创新的重要方式之一。在政府采取研发项目资金补贴策略的基础上，构建政府和企业家双方博弈的不确定性投资与融资模型，并给出博弈均衡下最优投资时机、投资成本、融资策略以及最优政府补贴的显式表达式。研究发现企业家的债务协商能力会影响到政府对企业的补贴策略，只有当企业家在债务市场拥有一定议价能力的时候，政府补贴才能有效缓解研发项目的投资不足问题。另外，随着企业收益流的不确定性的增加，均衡下政府补贴出现先增后减的趋势，政府应尽可能根据不同风险的研发项目来采取补贴策略。本文的结论从理论上丰富了已有研发补贴政策的研究，为政府更有针对性实施补贴政策提供有益参考。     

家族企业组织演进的进化博弈模型

运用进化博弈理论对家族企业的组织演进进行研究,从动态机制、博弈框架和支付函数3个方面构建了家族企业组织演进的一般进化博弈模型,据此得到了家族企业组织演化的进化稳定均衡策略。拓展了家族企业研究的理论基础,并为实证分析创造了相应的技术条件。     

上市公司违规问题的进化博弈分析

对上市公司之间的策略选择进行了进化博弈分析,根据各种参数赋值的差异判断演化博弈均衡的稳定性,再由博弈的稳定性剖析上市公司违规与守规的策略选择状况.对上市公司与监管部门的策略选择进行了演化博弈分析,根据监督方与被监督方的参数赋值差别判断其博弈的稳定性,再由博弈的稳定性剖析上市公司与监督方的策略选择状况.根据博弈分析的结论对预防上市公司违规给出了政策建议.     

基于企业家群体产品垂直创新的内生增长模型

本文建立了一个基于企业家群体产品垂直创新的内生经济增长模型,通过企业家群体的产品垂直创新将企业家精神引入了经济增长理论。通过模型分析得出了竞争均衡时的经济增长速度和创新成功的概率,并就解的含义进行了讨论。模型的基本结论是:企业家群体的产品垂直创新活动是经济增长的一种动力,企业家精神越强,经济增长速度越快。由于产品垂直创新的特点,政府应采取灵活的政策,在保持经济增长的同时避免过分竞争和资源浪费。     

组织环境的不确定性研究综述

不确定性作为组织理论研究中的一个重要概念一直在解释组织与环境的关系上占有重要的地位。本文首先探讨了环境不确定性概念的演化过程,然后对环境不确定性的来源和度量进行了总结,并在此基础对环境不确定性对组织的影响进行了归纳和分析,最后提出一些有待继续研究的方向和建议。     

Imitate Others? Not if We Have the Chance: Competitive Differentiation in Medical Malpractice Insurers' Pricing Decisions under Uncertainty

Several perspectives assert that organizations facing uncertainty tend to imitate other organizations' actions. While one might therefore expect to see great homogeneity across fields characterized by uncertainty, it is surprising that this homogeneity has not been observed more frequently in practice. Research investigating this puzzle has typically focused on the role played by organizational characteristics or the information organizations possess about their environments. Instead, this study turns attention to the information others possess about the organization. To that end, I disaggregate organizational uncertainty into the uncertainty facing decision makers and the uncertainty faced by others about what those decision makers might ultimately do, providing a more fine grained analysis of uncertainty and its impact on competitive action than typically offered in this literature. I suggest that uncertainty in competitors' evaluations of the organization provides an opportunity for the organization to differentiate itself rather than imitate others. I also suggest that this effect is stronger than the effects of the uncertainty facing the decision makers themselves. Related hypotheses are tested on a panel of medical malpractice insurance providers. The study's perspective generates unique predictions regarding imitation and differentiation in this industry and across other contexts featuring both uncertainty and competition.     

Distributed sensemaking in network risk analysis

This article responds to the call advancing risk science as an independent research field, by introducing a conceptual model for risk analysis based on distributed sensemaking. Significant advances in recent decades have expanded the use of risk analysis to almost every organization globally. Continued improvements have been made to our understanding of risk, placing a wide range of contexts under organizational control. This article argues that four dimensions are central in how organizations make sense of uncertainty in their context and hence do risk analysis: the activities the organization engages in, their sensory systems, the role and competence of individuals, and the ability to coordinate information through organizational structures. The structure enables insight into the decision-making process and the dimensions contributing to how organizations perceive risks and uncertainty in a given context. Three examples from the Arctic context illustrate the network risk analysis model's practical application and how it will expose weaknesses in these organizations’ risk analysis and decision-making processes. Finally, the article discusses sensemaking in network risk analysis and how such an approach supports organizations’ ability to perceive, collect, process, and decide on changes in context.     

网络组织的效率 ———泊松流市场的模型分析

对不确定情况下的服务业网络组织进行研究. 售后服务行业在我国东部大城市已经悄 然出现了一种网络式组织形式,然而其业务量是不确定的,就其面对的市场特点建立了泊松流 模型,用模型对网络组织进行分析,得出网络组织的效率改进主要体现在资产和管理的规模经 济及不确定条件下人员的互补效应.     

网络组织的效率 ———泊松流市场的模型分析

对不确定情况下的服务业网络组织进行研究.售后服务行业在我国东部大城市已经悄然出现了一种网络式组织形式,然而其业务量是不确定的,就其面对的市场特点建立了泊松流模型,用模型对网络组织进行分析,得出网络组织的效率改进主要体现在资产和管理的规模经济及不确定条件下人员的互补效应.     

Flexibility, Hierarchy, Markets

The conclusion that organizations need to become more strategically flexible as a response to increasing environmental dynamism and uncertainty has been an important feature of recent contingency theories of organization design. In this literature organizations have been analysed from the perspective of the development of networks of organizations concentrating on their core competencies and contracting among themselves on a stable long-term basis. This model of inter-firm relationships provides an alternative mode of organizational structuring to that arising from vertical integration, which, by contrast, is seen as fostering strategic inflexibility. In the literature on corporate restructuring and changes in ownership form arising from the markets and hierarchies perspective, we see a similar emphasis on the dysfunctional consequences of large-scale bureaucratic organization. Changes in ownership form are seen as a major means of providing more effective managerial control. In this paper we argue that linking the literature on flexibility emanating from contingency theories of organizational design and the markets and hierarchies perspective provides important new insights into current and emerging forms of organization.     

动态能力演化的知识模型与一个中国企业的案例分析

本文提出了一个基于组织知识的动态能力演化模型。在建立了基于知识的企业能力模型,并提出企业能力改变的18种纬度的基础上,本文认为动态能力的演化主要是围绕变异、内部选择、传播和保持4个阶段循环进行。在这个过程中,组织的经营性惯例和学习性惯例都发挥了重要作用,并交织着企业的认知性努力与行为性努力。随后,本文结合湖北京山轻工机械股份有限公司进行了案例分析,并得出了有益的启示。     

The Limits of Flexibility: the Case of UK Television

The organization of the UK television industry has undergone radical change in the last ten years in response to a concerted programme of regulatory change and rapid technological development. It has been seen by some commentators as an exemplar of flexible specialization and of further evidence that mass production methods have become increasingly obsolescent. Vertically disintegrated, flexibly specialized forms of organization are, on this view, best placed to cope with increasing product diversity, competition and uncertainty. This paper argues that the experience of television in the UK bears little resemblance to the model of flexible specialization. Indeed, the response of firms to changing product market conditions has not been to embrace vertical disintegration but to re-establish traditional organizational structures. Transaction-costs analysis, while providing a number of useful insights into the development of organizational structures within television, also fails to take account of the complex web of forces determining the degree of horizontal and vertical integration in the sector.     

Forecasting in conditions of uncertainty

Has the business environment grown in uncertainty? In this paper the authors suggest that the root problem is not uncertainty but the malevolence of events these past few years. In turn, this has made uncertainty and the techniques developed to cope with its consequences all the more important to the firm. But while improved forecasting may take the difference between a potentially profitable project and corporate disaster, good forecasting by itself is not enough. Most firms would benefit from examining their forecasting performance in relation to strategic decisionmaking and the various options available. The authors conclude that only in an organization where integration between expert forecaster and forecast user has been achieved can the full benefits of improved forecasting be realized.     

走向21世纪的管理学

旨在研究即将迈入21世纪的管理学的发展问题．出于对管理学内涵的不同理解,诸多管理学家对管理学的规定性及其混琅和构成也各持已见．本文则通过比较分析．得出管理学是研究和探讨组织及组织内资源配置的构造、方式及方法的学科,是一门应用性理论学科的结论;提出了自己对于管理学构成的看法,即认为管理学由组织、管理方式方法以及经营三大部分内容组成,并以此为标准对以往管理学的演进历程重新分类界定;在此基础上,分析预测21世纪的管理学发展方向将主要表现在以下3方面：夯实管理学理论体系,形成管理学的方法论以及深化管理学研究内容