子网络视角下项目群合同项目工期延误诊断模型研究

项目群工期延误诊断是项目群进度目标控制的一项重要任务。总时差可用于判断项目群中某项工作延误对项目群总工期的延误程度，但没有解决某项工作延误对其自身合同项目和后续合同项目工期延误程度的判断问题。本文根据多项目管理和项目群管理理论，通过引入项目群子网络，研究并构建了基于子网络的项目群结构。在此基础上，运用关键路径法（CPM），系统地研究了因子网络中合同项目某工作工期延误对自身子网络以及项目群中后续子网络工期的影响，提出了子网络后主链定理以及前主链总时差定理，从而实现子网络视角下项目群合同项目工期延误的诊断分析。结合算例进行了具体阐述与应用。最后就如何应用人工智能算法实现项目群进度及其影响因素进行实时监控提出研究思路。本文研究成果为子网络承包商的工期延误责任划分以及索赔提供依据。     

Assessment of delay factors in construction of sport facilities through multi criteria decision making

Abstract

The construction of sports facilities widened drastically as the number of sport events gradually increased during the last two decades in the global environment. The requirements of International Federations to host these sports events impact the construction of these facilities. Construction complexity, budget and time constraints and pressure from the project stakeholders play an important role on delivery time of such facilities. The aim of this paper is to identify and evaluate the most significant delay factors that affecting the delivery of sport projects worldwide. From previous literatures and one-to-one meetings with technical experts, a list of 37 delays attributes were identified. These factors were categorised in 8 groups and distributed through an online questionnaire portal to sport facility professionals. 101 completed responses were collected and analysed through different ranking approaches and multi criteria decision making methods (Relative Importance Index (RII), Spearman’s Rank Correlation, T-Test and Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP). The analysis of AHP concluded that “low level of consultant experience”, “low level of contractor experience”, “shortage of construction materials” and “difficulties in financing the project by contractor” were the most critical delay factors, while “delays related to contractor capabilities” was the most critical delay group. The value of this paper is to provide the industry professionals with the most significant delay factors in construction of sports facilities to take proper managerial actions to reduce delays.     

一种基于时差的工期索赔分析方法

工期索赔问题是目前项目管理中的一类重要问题，针对这一问题出现了多种分析方法，但都不能被普遍接受，一个关键的难点在于多个工序发生延误时工序间相互作用的原理及其对总工期造成的影响尚未研究清楚，导致时差所有权不合理、延误责任分担不公平、索赔分析结果与实际情况不一致等问题。针对这些问题，本文基于时差理论提出了一种分析工期索赔的新方法。本文首先提出了工期延误中的"组合效应"，指多个工序延误时总工期实际延误总量经常不等于每个延误工序单独推迟总工期的分量之和的现象，以组合效应研究为入手点，本文利用CPM网络的时差特性分析了延误工序间相互影响的原理，进而揭示了多工序延误时"组合效应"的规律；然后在此基础上根据组合效应的影响因素确定组合效应在各延误工序中的分摊比例，进一步得出各工序在工期索赔中应承担的责任，由此提出了基于时差的工期索赔分析方法；最后通过一个项目算例将这种方法与目前常用方法进行了比较。由于组合效应清晰地反映了延误工序之间的相互影响及其对总工期影响的内在规律，因此本文提出的方法责任分摊更加公平合理，更加符合实际情况，且借助时差参数实现程序化使其免于频繁的网络更新更便于应用，能够有效弥补目前工期索赔分析方法的不足，为项目管理人员提供一种工期索赔分析的有力工具。     

Developing strategic thinking

This paper looks at the problem of getting managers to contribute effectively to strategic planning, and focuses on the role of management development approaches in ensuring that this happens. A number of formal, and less formal, management development techniques are discussed in the light of their relevance for developing strategic awareness. The importance of providing exposure to strategic issues at an early stage in managers' careers is stressed, and also the need to encourage managers to take initiatives in obtaining their own development. Some of the most fruitful techniques involve taking full advantage of the ‘natural learning’ that takes place on the job, and those which provide a close integration between management development and the planning process—such as projects and ‘task forces’. Finally the role of senior managers in helping to create and maintain a climate in which strategic abilities can develop is discussed.     

Critical Realism,Managers and Information

Many accounts of contemporary management raise the issue of the effective use of information, but little is said about how this is to be achieved. This paper sets notions of ‘information literacy’, drawn from higher education, against the reflections of a small group of managers. This indicates that there are a number of dimensions, notably the relationship of information use to organizational power, that are not adequately catered for in current conceptions of information literacy. It is argued that existing accounts focus excessively on the construction of meaning without taking into account the constraints on such construction. Drawing on resources from critical realism, these constraints are taken to relate both to the individual's embodied nature and to the structural dimensions of their practice. Exploration of these constraints is felt to require attention to the temporal dimension of social analysis and to an examination of the interrelationships between structure and agency.     

基于元网络分析的重大基础设施建设项目风险评估框架与实证

重大基础设施项目具有战略性、集成性、复杂性等特征，项目容易受到多种风险因素的综合影响，导致项目目标的偏离。现有风险评估与风险决策的方法缺乏对于风险因素、风险事件之间关联的分析。为了实现重大基础设施建设项目综合系统的风险评估，本文采用元网络分析方法，构建项目目标、风险事件和风险因素的交互模型，揭示重大基础设施风险事件发生机制的黑箱过程。风险评估过程中，通过多个网络叠加运算分析每个风险因素对于各种风险事件以及项目各目标的影响情况，改进了以往仅对风险因素单一影响程度的风险评估方法。同时，本研究选择我国某河流水电站过坝运输项目方案比选的风险评估过程验证方法的适用性。     

Globalization and its impact on global managers' decision processes

Globalization of business can have a profound impact on the decision-making processes of managers responsible for making these complex interrelated decisions. This paper explores the global decision-making processes of global managers. The first element examined is the multiple intelligences that global managers need to be able to address the issues associated with global decisions. These eight IQs are considered critical elements in the decision-making capabilities of global managers. Following this discussion, the composition of global groups and their impact on the decision-making process is explored to determine how the composition of the group inhibits/supports the global manager. The next step in the decision-making process discussed in the paper is that of the nature of the task(s). The type of task can have a direct impact on the effectiveness as well as the efficiency of global manager's decision-making. The crux of the issue is that a global orientation to decision-making is poised as being significantly different from decision processes use by managers in a multinational context.     

Defining Problems Fast and Slow: The U‐shaped Effect of Problem Definition Time on Project Duration

This study examines how time spent in problem definition affects problem solving in projects such as Six Sigma projects. Our hypotheses are tested using data collected from 1558 Six Sigma projects in a company. The results show evidence of a U‐shaped relationship between the amount of time spent in the Define phase and project duration. This finding suggests that spending too little time on problem definition potentially causes poor problem formulation, which leads to deficient problem solving and lengthens overall project time. On the other hand, too much time spent on problem definition can lead to unneeded delays in project completion due to diminishing returns on problem definition efforts. Furthermore, the optimal balance between spending too little and too much time depends on prior project experience and project complexity. Prior project experience reduced project completion time and weakened the U‐shaped effect. Conversely, complex projects took longer and appeared to show some evidence of a stronger U‐shaped effect; this suggests balancing the time spent in the Define phase was more challenging for complex projects. Our study also underscores the importance of managing project duration, as projects that were completed faster tended to be associated with higher project savings.     

Work Design and Integration Glitches in Globally Distributed Technology Projects

In a technology project, project integration represents the pooling together of complete, interdependent task modules to form a physical product or software delivering a desired functionality. This study develops and tests a conceptual framework that examines the interrelationships between the elements of work design, project integration challenges, and project performance. We identify two distinct elements of work design in technology projects: (i) the type of project organization based on whether a technology project spans a firm boundary (Domestic‐Outsourcing) or a country boundary (Offshore‐Insourcing) or both boundaries (Offshore‐Outsourcing) or no boundaries (Domestic‐Insourcing), and (ii) the joint coordination practices among key stakeholders in a technology project—namely, Onsite Ratio and Joint‐Task Ownership. Next, we measure the effectiveness of project integration using integration glitches that capture the incompatibility among interdependent task modules during project integration. Based on analysis of data from 830 technology projects, the results highlight the differential effects of distributed project organizations on integration glitches. Specifically, we find that project organizations that span both firm and country boundaries (Offshore‐Outsourcing) experience significantly higher levels of integration glitches compared to domestic project organizations (Domestic‐Outsourcing and Domestic‐Insourcing). The results further indicate that the relationship between project organization type and integration glitches is moderated by the extent of joint coordination practices in a project. That is, managers can actively lower integration glitches by increasing the levels of onsite ratio and by promoting higher levels of joint‐task ownership, particularly in project organization types that span both firm and country boundaries (Offshore‐Outsourcing). Finally, the results demonstrate the practical significance of studying integration glitches by highlighting its significant negative effect on project performance.     

企业隐性知识导航方法研究

在对企业隐性知识特性及其研究现状分析的基础上,提出了企业隐性知识导航方法。该方法包括2个方面内容:基于平衡计分卡的专家导航方法,充分考虑了专家之间的能力差别;基于多关系专家网络的专家导航路径查询方法和相关专家查询方法,充分考虑了专家之间的多重关系,该方法为管理者发现及考核专家提供了依据。在此基础上,利用社会网络分析工具Sociom etryP ro对专家网络进行评价,得到了专家个人特征结果,并指出了改善企业隐性知识共享的具体措施。     

A Cautionary Note on Data Inputs and Visual Outputs in Social Network Analysis

Innovations in network visualization software over the last decade or so have been important to the popularization of social network analysis (SNA) among academics, consultants and managers. Indeed, there is a growing literature that seeks to demonstrate how ‘invisible social networks’ might be revealed and leveraged for ‘visible results’ through management interventions. However, the seductive power of the network graphic has distracted attention away from a variety of emerging and long recognized concerns in SNA. For example, weaknesses exist in data collection techniques that often rely on nominal boundary‐setting and respondent recall. Non‐response can also be highly problematic. Increasingly, email data are being employed, yet this represents a poor proxy for relationships and raises issues of privacy. In displaying relational data, visualizations typically reify and ossify the network. Yet, individual perceptions of a network can vary greatly from unified visualizations, and their structure is typically fleeting. The aim of this paper is to draw together the diffuse literature concerning data input and visual output issues in SNA, in order to raise awareness among management researchers and practitioners. In doing so, the nature and impact of such weaknesses are discussed, as are ways in which these might be resolved or mitigated.     

Probabilistic dominance criteria for comparing uncertain alternatives: A tutorial

This paper is a tutorial which demonstrates the current state-of-the-art methods for incorporating risk into project selection decision making. The projects under consideration might be R&D, IT, or other capital expenditure programs. We will show six decision making methods: 1. mean-variance (MV), 2. mean-semivariance, 3. mean-critical probability, 4. stochastic dominance, 5. almost stochastic dominance (ASD), and 6. mean-Gini. We will also describe the assumptions about the risk attitudes of the decision maker which are associated with each of the techniques. While all these methods have been previously applied elsewhere, this is the first paper which shows all of their applications in the project selection context, together with their interrelationships, strengths and weaknesses. We have applied all six techniques to the same group of five hypothetical projects and evaluated the resulting nondominated sets. Among the methods reviewed here, stochastic dominance is recommended because it requires the least restrictive assumptions. ASD and mean-Gini are recommended when stochastic dominance is not practical or when it does not yield definitive choices. MV, mean-semivariance, and mean-critical probability are shown to be flawed.     

Reconstruction of decision-making behavior in shareholder and stakeholder theory: implications for management accounting systems

This paper focuses on two interrelated research questions. First, an analysis of managerial decision-making is incorporated into shareholder and stakeholder theory. Secondly, the paper investigates what consequences result for management accounting from inherent conceptions of managerial decision-making behavior. These research questions are based on assumptions of complex interrelationships among decision-making managers, management accountants, and techniques they employ. The findings of this research support that tenets of management accounting systems correspond best with shareholder theory. In doing so they apply financial measures, pursue the goal of profit maximization, and focus on decision-making behavior resulting from the agency relationship between shareholder and manager. Stakeholder theory, however, is fundamentally different from shareholder theory in terms of goals, management philosophy, relationships, behavioral assumptions etc. For these reasons differences with respect to managerial decision-making behavior are reasonable and different requirements related to management accounting systems appear appropriate.     

Understanding Construction Supply Chain Management

The purpose of this study was to understand some of the many perplexing questions eluding managers of overwhelmingly complex construction supply chain management (CSCM) based on review of some important research issues pertaining to construction supply chains. This study has illustrated understanding on CSCM using qualitative approach of triangulation applying foundational research methodology and soft system methodology in a coal-based thermal power plant project to validate its complex CSCM systems. The study highlights that a typical CSCM eco-system for the coal-based thermal power plant construction as unit can be considered to operate as a system with sub-systems as concept phase, procurement phase, production phase, installation phase and winding up phase. This study suffers from methodological limitations associated with qualitative research. Finally, this study provides practical insights for research opportunities in the area of interdisciplinary construction projects.     

It's Only Temporary: Time Frame and the Dynamics of Creative Project Teams

The success of many knowledge‐intensive industries depends on creative projects that lie at the heart of their logic of production. The temporality of such projects, however, is an issue that is insufficiently understood. To address this, we study the perceived time frame of teams that work on creative projects and its effects on project dynamics. An experiment with 267 managers assigned to creative project teams with varying time frames demonstrates that, compared to creative project teams with a relatively longer time frame, project teams with a shorter time frame focus more on the immediate present, are less immersed in their task and utilize a more heuristic mode of information processing. Furthermore, we find that time frame moderates the negative effect of team conflict on team cohesion. These results are consistent with our theory that the temporary nature of creative projects shapes different time frames among project participants, and that it is this time frame that is an important predictor of task and team processes.     

Local government service systems improvement: exposing the social networks

Using a local government (LG) case study, this paper describes and qualitatively explores the value and use of social network analysis (SNA) in creating a rich environment for service network innovation and development. The case study analysed manages regional planning development applications and involves a complex social network. The study underpins the view that in LG service environments, mechanistic models for systems improvement are on their own inadequate. SNA constitutes an essential complementary development framework underpinning continuous innovation through human and social capital development. Findings presented are profound for local government and multiple service contexts and argue for a greater emphasis on understanding and developing the human and social aspects of service systems as opposed to a predominant technical systems bias.     

A dynamic ERP critical failure factors modelling with FCM throughout project lifecycle phases

Implementation of enterprise resource planning systems (ERPs) is a complex and costly task which usually results in serious failures. Numerous factors affect these projects implementation due to their size, complexity and high chance of failure. Therefore, identifying these factors in ERP projects is a critical issue. The majority of previous publications have been conducted in identifying ERP critical success factors (CSFs) rather than critical failure factors (CFFs). In order to help practitioners, this article studies the CFFs in ERP implementation projects. The implications of interdependency among failure factors are also usually overlooked by project managers due to perceived complexity in modelling and analysing influential factors. With this in mind, we have proposed a fuzzy cognitive map (FCM)-based dynamic model of ERP failure factors through project lifecycle phases. The main advantage of FCM lies in them being capable of modelling complex phenomena based on the experts’ perceptions. This tool models uncertainty and related events, imitating human reasoning. Moreover, FCMs enable the developing of forecasting exercises through simulations. Practitioners would thus assess the joint influence of ERP implementation failure factors on project outcomes. The results make known to practitioners which problems will arise if the failure factors are not treated, and how these will impact on the outcomes of projects. Therefore, the proposed approach would help them to manage ERP implementation projects in a more effective and proactive way.     

Water resources management under multi-parameter interactions: A factorial multi-stage stochastic programming approach

The paper proposes a factorial multi-stage stochastic programming (FMSP) approach to support water resources management under uncertainty. This approach was developed based on the conventional inexact multi-stage stochastic programming method. Five alternative inexact multi-stage stochastic programming algorithms in addition to the conventional algorithm were introduced and bundled to offer multiple decision options that reflect decision makers' perspectives and the complexities in system uncertainties. More importantly, factorial analysis, a multivariate inference method, was introduced into the modeling framework to analyze the potential interrelationships among a variety of uncertain parameters and their impacts on system performance. The proposed approach was applied to a water resources management case. The desired water-allocation schemes were obtained to assist in maximizing the total net benefit of the system. Multiple uncertain parameters and their interactions were examined, and those that had significant influences on system performance were identified. For example, the medium flow in the third planning period was the system objective's most influential factor. Any variation of this factor would significantly influence the acquisition of the total net benefit in the community. The significant interactions were also identified, such as the interaction between the agricultural sector's penalty and the medium flow in the third planning period. Through the analysis of multi-parameter interactions, the interrelationships among the uncertain parameters could be further revealed.     

Can a team have too much cohesion? The dark side to network density

The goal of most work teams is high performance. Prior studies suggest that performance within work groups is influenced by that group’s social network topology. Research has generally revealed to date that group cohesion (i.e., network density) is positively related to team performance under certain conditions. However, more recent research has indicated that this is not the full story. Recent research suggests that an inverse curvilinear relationship exists between social network measures (of which group cohesion is one) and team performance. In response to the need for understanding this relationship more fully, and leveraging the promising new insights that can be garnered with the use of social network analysis (SNA), this study employs SNA as a tool to explore the structural cohesiveness of teams of travel agents. This research extends our understanding of the relationship between intragroup social network relations and team performance by confirming an inverse curvilinear relationship exists between group cohesion and team performance. This paper leverages email communication to determine the social networks of each team, and then examines such in light of team performance. In total, an analysis of more than 7 million emails was undertaken. This study was conducted with work teams within a service organization. Each team in the study carries out the same tasks, i.e., identical task contingency, yet represents a distinct unit of analysis. The study confirms that social network topology is a valuable predictor of team performance and confirms that, like so many other social network measures, group cohesion and team performance share an inverse ‘U’ shaped relationship, not strictly a positive one as previously posited.