新技术商业化过程中的不确定性、学习与投资决策

本文从学习视角分析新技术商业化投资过程中面临的三种不同类型不确定性及其解决方式,阐述各类不确定性及分布影响新技术商业化投资决策背后的内在机制与路径.在此基础上运用实物期权方法构建新技术商业化投资评估与决策模型并导出最优投资规则,进而利用数值模拟进行比较静态分析,详细讨论各种参数变化对新技术商业化投资价值与投资门槛的影响,阐述结果的经济与管理涵义.     

基于序列投资的汽车项目投资决策模型

汽车项目投资具有投资大和较高的不确定性特点,一般分阶段进行,可以视为一个序列投资.多个投资阶段之间存在着相互影响,前一阶段的投资应考虑到后续各阶段投资的可能性.以汽车项目投资为背景,运用二叉树决策方法建立了多阶段的序列投资评价模型,并应用实物期权理论对序列投资中各阶段可能创造的价值进行了分析.通过构建基于序列投资评价的汽车项目投资决策模型,可以对汽车企业投资进行评价,有助于做出有效的决策.     

基于实物期权的新技术投资决策实证研究

本文基于对我国高新技术企业的实际调研,从实物期权视角检验不同类型不确定性对企业新技术投资决策的影响。研究结果表明,市场与政策不确定性对投资的延迟作用与技术不确定性对投资的促进作用得到不同程度验证,而竞争强度与投资不可逆程度对不确定性与投资关系的调节作用则不完全符合实物期权的理论预期。论文结果揭示了我国高新技术企业进行投资决策的一般规律,可为企业应用实物期权方法提供参考。     

序列投资下的石油勘探投资最优时机选择

综合考虑石油勘探投资的不可逆性、序列性和不确定性，结合市场需求和勘探储量的不确定性刻画勘探储量转让价格的随机动态变化，运用实物期权思想下的序列投资决策方法探究了石油勘探项目的最优投资时机选择问题，得出各阶段最优投资时机临界值的解析表达式，并与一次性完成投资的决策结果进行对比，进而剖析了不确定性参数对各阶段最优投资时机的影响。结果表明，序列投资决策模型能够弥补一次性投资决策模型容易错失投资机会的局限性；各阶段最优投资时机临界值同市场需求波动率、勘探主体价格控制能力呈同向变动，同市场需求漂移率呈反向变动；随勘探进程的不断深入，最优勘探投资时机临界值对以上参数的敏感性程度不断增强。     

参数不确定性下资产配置的动态均值-方差模型

现有关于资产配置的动态均值-方差模型的研究均假设投资者准确知道与资产收益率相关的参数,从而忽略了参数不确定性对投资决策的影响.本文研究引入参数不确定性和贝叶斯学习时的动态均值-方差模型,使用鞅方法求解得出最优投资策略的解析表达式,并导出了均值-方差有效边界.在此基础上,利用中国证券市场的实际数据进行了实证分析,结果表明参数不确定性对最优投资策略以及投资效果有较大的影响.     

产品定价及质量投资决策序列对两级装配系统的影响研究

为研究供应链结构对供应链绩效的影响,构建了两级装配系统中质量投资与价格决策模型。分析了3种不同决策序列的纳什均衡,并从各参与方的角度讨论了其最优决策序列,即供应商先同时进行质量决策后再同时进行批发价格决策、供应商同时进行质量决策和批发价格决策以及供应商1先进行质量和批发价格决策。研究发现,集中决策优于独立决策,且价格敏感系数越低、质量敏感系数越高集中决策的优势越显著;第1种决策序列下供应链总利润最高;第2种决策序列是制造商的占优策略,但是供应商1的最差策略;第3种决策序列下供应商2的利润最低。     

蒙特卡罗模拟技术在投资风险决策中的应用

本文以净现值为目标风险分析变量,通过构建合适的经济模型,借助计算机蒙特卡罗模拟手段,对投资风险决策中存在的随机性和不确定性问题进行有效处理和分析,弥补了常用决策手段的不足,为投资风险决策提供了一个很好的解决思路。     

经济政策不确定性与企业现金持有策略——基于中国经济政策不确定指数的实证研究

研究经济政策不确定性对企业现金持有策略的影响,发现企业在经济政策不确定性上升时会增持现金,这种现金增持行为在融资约束较为严重、股权集中度较低以及学习能力较差的企业中更加明显.此外,本文还采用中介效应分析方法,发现企业在经济政策不确定性上升时增持的现金,有一部分是以放弃当前投资机会为代价的,被放弃的投资机会构成了企业在经济政策不确定性上升时增持现金的机会成本.     

基于小波分析的多期夏普比率及实证研究

用风险价值代替标准差作为夏普比率中投资组合风险的度量,并应用修正的VaR计算方法解决收益率序列非正态分布时的风险度量问题.进一步地将小波分析引入夏普比率,利用小波函数的尺度变化与不同的投资期限相时应,建立了基于小波分析的多期夏普比率评价模型,并以我国经济背景为依托,选择上证八只封闭式基金进行研究.结果表明,把小波分析引入夏普比率可以解决投资组合业绩的多期评价问题.     

分布式供应链节点企业物流能力柔性价值研究

节点企业物流能力柔性是影响分布式供应链能否快速响应客户的关键因素之一.首先对物流能力的研究进行回顾,分析分布式供应链中节点企业物流能力、特点和运作流程.界定了节点企业物流能力柔性及其价值,通过对物流能力投资过程的分析,在相关合理假设的基础上,分析物流能力投资环节中如何计算不确定性的投资收益,并最终建立基于多段随机规划和实物期权的物流能力柔性价值决策模型.模型中存在的需求的不确定性和决策点的可选择性使求解复杂,因而采用Latin超立方分层采样技术和蒙特卡洛模拟技术对模型进行求解,模型解决了传统财务方法忽视物流能力投资后无形价值计算的问题.最后用案例分析说明该模型在计算节点企业物流能力柔性价值上是有效的.     

参数不确定性和效用最大化下的动态投资组合选择

标准投资组合选择理论假设投资者准确地知道与资产收益率相关的各种参数(例如均值和方差),忽视了参数不确定性引致的估计风险给投资决策带来的影响.本文研究引入参数不确定和学习时的连续时间动态投资组合选择问题,使用鞅方法求导出了具有CRRA型效用函数的投资者的最优投资策略的显式表达式.在此基础上,我们结合中国证券市场中的实际数据深入分析了参数不确定性以及投资者初始信念对最优投资策略的影响.     

Learning in and from projects: the learning modes and a learning capability model

Abstract

The notion of ‘project delivery’ is well embedded in and across the management and organizational sciences literature – generating a narrative that reflects and recognizes the instrumental nature of projects and programmes in strategy execution. Project management, as a distinct and well-established body of research enquiry, has increasingly sought to focus our attention on the impacts of complexity, risk and uncertainty in projects; the corollary being a desideratum to strengthen our theoretical understanding of how insight and learning from projects may influence improvements to organizational efficiency. The wider literature suggests that organizational learning remains a challenging proposition, particularly in the context of organizations operating in environments of high complexity. In this paper, we enhance the conversation on organizational learning through a series of case studies, generating evidence of thirteen ‘learning modes’. The paper proposes that mature organizations tend to exhibit a greater number of learning modes and that there is a tendency to capture and socialize knowledge with a greater emphasis on the context of the learning situation rather than the learning artefact in isolation. The empirical evidence gathered in this paper forms the basis of a capability model, characterized by the thirteen modes of learning. The model intimates that learning occurs, and is more effective, when knowledge and information are enacted in practice through the learning modes which form a nucleus of the organizational learning capability. The research concludes with a 'call to action' that emphasizes the strategic importance of learning practices and routines in project oriented-organizations.     

The Alliance Experience Transfer Effect: The Case of Industry Convergence in the Telecommunications Equipment Industry

A central premise of the industry change literature is that firms change their strategic actions when an industry changes. Industry convergence (IC), the blending of boundaries between industries creating competition among firms that previously did not compete, is increasingly impacting many industries and is a salient case of industry change. Acquisitions are an important action shaping the course of IC because they trigger imitation and bandwagon effects further accelerating IC. This paper focuses on why and when learning from alliances reduces uncertainty resulting in acquisitions during IC: an ‘alliance experience transfer effect’. We demonstrate the utility of this mechanism for the substitution‐based form of IC that occurred between the telecommunications equipment and computer networking industries. Our key insight is that when the extent of IC is low there are significant transfer effects but, as the extent of IC increases, firms have access to an expanding volume and diversity of information sources that reduce uncertainty, thus weakening the transfer effect mechanism. We contribute to the alliance–acquisition relationship and learning literatures by demonstrating that the alliance experience transfer effect mechanism explains changes in firm strategic action (alliancing and acquiring) as the extent of IC changes. We also introduce a semi‐convergence perspective by directly measuring the extent of IC.     

Multinational enterprises' Entry Mode Strategies and Uncertainty: A Review and Extension

The issue of uncertainty has been one of the most important topics in the research on multinational enterprises' foreign market entry modes. This paper provides a conceptual review of the literature on the role of uncertainty in entry‐mode strategies. It is found that transaction cost theory has focused primarily on entry modes as a way of minimizing behavioural uncertainty, while research using the more recent real options approach has distinguished between endogenous and exogenous types of uncertainty and provided evidence that managing uncertainty through appropriate entry modes may lead to competitive advantage. By synthesizing the relevant literature, this paper provides some new perspectives and avenues for future research on uncertainty and entry‐mode choices by considering the impact of firm learning, prior experience and host market attractiveness.     

The dependence upon context of project critical success factors: test of the contingency hypothesis and effects of technological uncertainty and collectivism culture

Abstract

Although the relationship between critical success factors (CSFs) and project performance is established, evidence regarding the dependence on the context of CSFs is patchy. To advance this field, we conduct two complementary studies. Study 1 examines contingency theory regarding managerial CSFs using survey responses (N?=?211) of project management professionals from the United Kingdom. Using survey data from projects (N?=?336) in the United Kingdom, Study 2 examines the contextual dependence of managerial CSFs in a moderated-moderation, theoretical framework whereby project technological uncertainty moderates the relationship between managerial CSFs and project execution and efficiency, and in-group collectivism culture of the executing organisation moderates the effect of technological uncertainty. Results confirm that external and internal contexts influence managerial CSFs. Managerial CSFs have a greater than expected influence on project execution and efficiency. The positive effect of managerial CSFs is weaker when technological uncertainty is high. When technological uncertainty is high, the effect of managerial CSFs strengthens as levels of in-group collectivism culture increase. However, when technological uncertainty is low, the effect of managerial CSFs weakens as levels of in-group collectivism culture increase. We discuss the managerial and theoretical implications.     

企业数字化转型的同群效应及其影响因素研究

以2008~2019年中国A股制造业上市公司数据为基础,通过分析师跟踪网络识别同群群体,并利用面板固定效应模型等方法,考察企业数字化转型中的同群效应以及这种企业间行为互动的影响因素。研究发现:企业数字化转型过程中存在显著的同群效应;受模仿学习的主观动机与现实条件两方面因素共同影响,数字化转型的同群效应在资源基础和动态能力处于中间水平的企业中更为显著;网络嵌入、市场竞争以及环境不确定性均会强化企业数字化转型的同群效应;同群效应引发了群体成员数字化转型水平的向上趋同。     

银行对中小企业的最优随机监督强度研究

以最优监督框架为基础,引入随机监督机制,并构建理论模型,研究了银行对中小企业的最优随机监督强度问题。研究结果表明:对于银行方来说,较高强度的监督,看似可以减少评估中的不确定性行为,但实际上会影响对企业进行甄别和筛选的有效性;引入随机监督机制可使企业显露出其本来类型,有利于银行对企业的甄别与筛选;引入随机监督机制,并采取最优随机监督策略,有利于银行更好地维护自身利益。最后,对以上结论进行了数值模拟和理论解释,并提出相应的建议。     

基于质量努力和管理努力的风险投资金融契约设计与学习机制

在风险投资中,企业家付出的努力对企业的内在价值起决定性作用,为了研究如何更好地激励企业家提升企业的内在价值,本文将企业家付出的努力分为：质量努力和管理努力。首先,本文在单期静态模型下设计最优金融契约,并研究了两种努力的效率对激励效果的影响,研究表明：在单期模型中,激励企业家付出质量努力比激励其付出管理努力更加复杂,且与企业的内在价值波动有关。进一步,在多期动态模型中引入风险投资家对企业信息的学习过程,研究表明随着企业内在价值波动率单调减小,契约的激励效果越来越显著,且学习机制的加入会激励企业家降低努力的成本系数,同时更多地提升质量努力的效率。     

学习型联盟中知识资产开放水平的模型分析

竞争环境的变化使得学习型联盟成为企业间合作的一种重要形式,但学习型联盟中开放和保护的两难选择一直是困扰联盟管理的一项难题。本文通过对联盟双方的关系和交互作用的分析,研究了开放和保护这两种策略的选择依据、结果和影响因素,并建立了博弈模型,进一步揭示了联盟成员的开放程度与贡献水平的关系以及双方开放程度之间的相互影响关系,并解释了其在联盟管理中的实际意义。     

网络组织的效率 ———泊松流市场的模型分析

对不确定情况下的服务业网络组织进行研究. 售后服务行业在我国东部大城市已经悄 然出现了一种网络式组织形式,然而其业务量是不确定的,就其面对的市场特点建立了泊松流 模型,用模型对网络组织进行分析,得出网络组织的效率改进主要体现在资产和管理的规模经 济及不确定条件下人员的互补效应.