Interval estimation for conformance proportions of multiple quality characteristics

A conformance proportion is an important and useful index to assess industrial quality improvement. Statistical confidence limits for a conformance proportion are usually required not only to perform statistical significance tests, but also to provide useful information for determining practical significance. In this article, we propose approaches for constructing statistical confidence limits for a conformance proportion of multiple quality characteristics. Under the assumption that the variables of interest are distributed with a multivariate normal distribution, we develop an approach based on the concept of a fiducial generalized pivotal quantity (FGPQ). Without any distribution assumption on the variables, we apply some confidence interval construction methods for the conformance proportion by treating it as the probability of a success in a binomial distribution. The performance of the proposed methods is evaluated through detailed simulation studies. The results reveal that the simulated coverage probability (cp) for the FGPQ-based method is generally larger than the claimed value. On the other hand, one of the binomial distribution-based methods, that is, the standard method suggested in classical textbooks, appears to have smaller simulated cps than the nominal level. Two alternatives to the standard method are found to maintain their simulated cps sufficiently close to the claimed level, and hence their performances are judged to be satisfactory. In addition, three examples are given to illustrate the application of the proposed methods.     

Learning in and from projects: the learning modes and a learning capability model

Abstract

The notion of ‘project delivery’ is well embedded in and across the management and organizational sciences literature – generating a narrative that reflects and recognizes the instrumental nature of projects and programmes in strategy execution. Project management, as a distinct and well-established body of research enquiry, has increasingly sought to focus our attention on the impacts of complexity, risk and uncertainty in projects; the corollary being a desideratum to strengthen our theoretical understanding of how insight and learning from projects may influence improvements to organizational efficiency. The wider literature suggests that organizational learning remains a challenging proposition, particularly in the context of organizations operating in environments of high complexity. In this paper, we enhance the conversation on organizational learning through a series of case studies, generating evidence of thirteen ‘learning modes’. The paper proposes that mature organizations tend to exhibit a greater number of learning modes and that there is a tendency to capture and socialize knowledge with a greater emphasis on the context of the learning situation rather than the learning artefact in isolation. The empirical evidence gathered in this paper forms the basis of a capability model, characterized by the thirteen modes of learning. The model intimates that learning occurs, and is more effective, when knowledge and information are enacted in practice through the learning modes which form a nucleus of the organizational learning capability. The research concludes with a 'call to action' that emphasizes the strategic importance of learning practices and routines in project oriented-organizations.     

A Lower Bound for the Wrap-around L2-discrepancy on Combined Designs of Mixed Two- and Three-level Factorials

The objective of this article is to study the issue of employing the uniformity criterion measured by wrap-around L₂-discrepancy to assess the optimal foldover plans. For mixed two- and three-level fractional factorials as the original designs, general foldover plan and combined design under a foldover plan are defined, and the equivalence between any foldover plan and its complementary foldover plan is investigated. A lower bound of wrap-around L₂-discrepancy of combined designs under a general foldover plan is obtained, which can be used as a benchmark for searching optimal foldover plans. Moreover, it also provides a theoretical justification for optimal foldover plans in terms of uniformity criterion.     

基于个体中心视角的大学生自杀风险特征

对大学生自杀风险进行分类,并重点分析性别、人格特质和父母教养方式对自杀风险的预测作用,能准确地筛查出自杀风险较高的学生,进行重点干预和辅导,防患于未然。研究结果发现,就自杀风险而言,女生比男生自杀风险更大些;人格特质中的稳定和忧虑,教养方式中的父母情感温暖、理解,对高风险和次高风险组具有显著预测作用。潜剖面分析模型在自杀风险因子检测、不同风险类型的特征识别等方面适应良好、作用明显;大学生自杀与心理危机风险的检测内容需要进一步优化完善,应将父母教养方式、个人成长经历、人格特质、生活应激、社会支持、抑郁情绪等多个相关风险因素纳入检测因子体系。     

大芦家地区东二1亚段砂体微相纵横向分布研究

大芦家地区渐新统东二1亚段主要由三角洲前缘亚相组成,发育的微相类型包括河口坝、水下分流河道、水下决口扇及天然堤、远砂坝、席状砂、分流间湾等,它们在纵横向上表现出多次复合,多次叠加的特征,且各微相的界限和单砂层的界限并不一致;所有这些微相在垂向上的沉积序列可分为均一型、垂向减小型和垂向增大型三类;此外,该区三角洲体系沉积物源主要由河流从西北方向搬运而来,属高建设性的河控型三角洲,其平面呈朵状向东南方或南方延伸,其微相模式的特点是水下分流河道和河口坝沉积位于中心,其他微相分布在它们的外缘。     

The almost sure convergence rate of the estimator of optimized certainty equivalent risk measure under α-mixing sequences

Conditional value-at-risk (CVaR) model is a kind of financial risk measure that is extensively supported and accepted by international financial community. Its optimized form can be regarded as an optimized certainty equivalent (OCE) risk measurement. In this paper, we mainly discuss and analyze the strong laws of large numbers and the convergence rate of OCE's estimator under α-mixing sequences. The result shows that the almost sure convergence rate of CVaR estimator is given by the results of OCE estimator. Its convergence rate is inversely proportional to the square root of the sample size under certain conditions. Its effectiveness is verified by simulation experiments for two classical α-mixing sequences.     

论新中国民族政策的合法性

新中国民族政策的合法性主要来源于意识形态、法理和绩效基础。当前中国民族政策的合法性正面临着新的挑战,应从推进民族理论创新、加强马克思主义民族观教育、完善民族政策、将民族政策提升为民族法规等方面入手,巩固民族政策的合法性基础,使民族政策赢得社会的共同认可和广泛支持。     

《兔侠传奇》:民族动画新标杆

讲故事一直是中国动画的弱项,解放前万籁鸣学习美国动画;建国初期中国动画学习苏联动画;在红色经典动画之后,我们大量学习日本动画,数量＂大跃进＂而质量＂滥竽充数＂,反而杀伤了中国动画。《兔侠传奇》巧妙设置悬念、复制类似《宝莲灯》这样的倡导诚信、惩恶扬善的故事模式,并借助名人、明星效应以及民族特色鲜明的场景设置,成为了当前民族动画产业化发展的标杆。     

从词块理论看英语语言测试

词块是二语习得的有效语言单位,尤其是在口语和写作方面更具有积极作用,这也是当代词块研究的主流。语言测试是检测语言输出的重要手段,因而语言测试与词块在某种程度上必定存在一定联系。本文试从语言测试的领域探讨词块的作用及其影响。     

古代文体学的学理构成

古代文体学的学理构成,大体包括文学文体学、文章文体学与文化文体学三个层面,具体分文体形态学、文体起源学、文体命名学、文体范畴学、文体分类学、文体史学、文体创作学、文体艺术学等,是一完整独立而又开放的学科体系.中国古代文体概念,类似于西方的文类概念,西方文体(style)概念,则类似中国古代风格概念.不存在纯粹的"文学文体",也没有纯粹的"应用文体".以内容、风格、功用为标准界定和划分文体,是不科学的,只能以体式为标准.文体分类,"一分为三"比"一分为二"更合理.现代文体分类四分法,与古代文体学原生态相差较大,造成流弊.文体在不断新生与淘汰过程中发展,文体演进是封闭性与开放性、纯洁性与包容性、逻辑性与非逻辑性的统一,它如同一条连续不断的长河,前后古今不是沟、界,而是环环相连.