A New Creation or an Image and Likeness? The Maltese Experience of Establishing Local Government in a Centralized Micro-State

Small states vary among themselves as to whether they have significant local government systems. While government in Malta has been historically a very centralized activity, a network of local councils was established in the early 1990s as part of a more general public sector reform movement. Unlike some other small states, Malta has strong political parties, and they have played an important part in the affairs of the local councils as well as of the central government. Their establishment has therefore done little to reduce political polarization or promote decentralist values, as was hoped when they were first established.     

Risk Modeling of Interdependent Complex Systems of Systems: Theory and Practice

The emergence of the complexity characterizing our systems of systems (SoS) requires a reevaluation of the way we model, assess, manage, communicate, and analyze the risk thereto. Current models for risk analysis of emergent complex SoS are insufficient because too often they rely on the same risk functions and models used for single systems. These models commonly fail to incorporate the complexity derived from the networks of interdependencies and interconnectedness (I–I) characterizing SoS. There is a need to reevaluate currently practiced risk analysis to respond to this reality by examining, and thus comprehending, what makes emergent SoS complex. The key to evaluating the risk to SoS lies in understanding the genesis of characterizing I–I of systems manifested through shared states and other essential entities within and among the systems that constitute SoS. The term “essential entities” includes shared decisions, resources, functions, policies, decisionmakers, stakeholders, organizational setups, and others. This undertaking can be accomplished by building on state‐space theory, which is fundamental to systems engineering and process control. This article presents a theoretical and analytical framework for modeling the risk to SoS with two case studies performed with the MITRE Corporation and demonstrates the pivotal contributions made by shared states and other essential entities to modeling and analysis of the risk to complex SoS. A third case study highlights the multifarious representations of SoS, which require harmonizing the risk analysis process currently applied to single systems when applied to complex SoS.     

Strategic Preparedness for Recovery from Catastrophic Risks to Communities and Infrastructure Systems of Systems

Natural and human‐induced disasters affect organizations in myriad ways because of the inherent interconnectedness and interdependencies among human, cyber, and physical infrastructures, but more importantly, because organizations depend on the effectiveness of people and on the leadership they provide to the organizations they serve and represent. These human–organizational–cyber–physical infrastructure entities are termed systems of systems. Given the multiple perspectives that characterize them, they cannot be modeled effectively with a single model. The focus of this article is: (i) the centrality of the states of a system in modeling; (ii) the efficacious role of shared states in modeling systems of systems, in identification, and in the meta‐modeling of systems of systems; and (iii) the contributions of the above to strategic preparedness, response to, and recovery from catastrophic risk to such systems. Strategic preparedness connotes a decision‐making process and its associated actions. These must be: implemented in advance of a natural or human‐induced disaster, aimed at reducing consequences (e.g., recovery time, community suffering, and cost), and/or controlling their likelihood to a level considered acceptable (through the decisionmakers’ implicit and explicit acceptance of various risks and tradeoffs). The inoperability input‐output model (IIM), which is grounded on Leontief's input/output model, has enabled the modeling of interdependent subsystems. Two separate modeling structures are introduced. These are: phantom system models (PSM), where shared states constitute the essence of modeling coupled systems; and the IIM, where interdependencies among sectors of the economy are manifested by the Leontief matrix of technological coefficients. This article demonstrates the potential contributions of these two models to each other, and thus to more informative modeling of systems of systems schema. The contributions of shared states to this modeling and to systems identification are presented with case studies.     

Governance of Small Jurisdictions: Guest Editors' Introduction

This article introduces a symposium on the Governance of Small Jurisdictions developed from selected papers first presented at a conference at the Islands and Small States Institute of the University of Malta in November 1999. It notes the important role of the University of Malta in promoting the study of governance in small states, and recognises other leaders in the small and island states study movement including the International Association of Schools and Institutes of Administration which co-hosted the beginning conference.The article then considers the notions of smallness and statehood as generally used in this branch of scholarship, reflects on what small states have in common, introduces the other articles which make up the symposium, and provides a list of some 90 states with populations of under one million sorted into three categories: (i) sovereign states, (ii) states in federations, and (iii) associate states, self-governing territories and self-governing colonies.     

Stigma as a multispatial-scale process: Revisiting the worst US Superfund sites

Areas immediately adjacent to 16 of the first US national priority (NPL) hazardous waste sites that also had pre-superfund emergency actions were examined to measure local stigma. Four decades after their NPL designation, I found marked variation in these areas’ social, public health and environmental attributes. About one-third of these small areas fit the stereotype of stressed areas with environmental injustice challenges. Yet, another one-third of these sites have better measurable outcomes than a combination of their host states and counties. For example, they have elevated levels of broadband access and their local jurisdictions are classified as safe and attractive to families. I conclude that long-term stigma around a Superfund site was limited by US EPA actions, as well as by progressive state and local governments, and community groups, in other words, contributions from parties at multiple geographical scales.     

System of Systems Engineering and Risk Management of Extreme Events: Concepts and Case Study

The domain of risk analysis is expanded to consider strategic interactions among multiple participants in the management of extreme risk in a system of systems. These risks are fraught with complexity, ambiguity, and uncertainty, which pose challenges in how participants perceive, understand, and manage risk of extreme events. In the case of extreme events affecting a system of systems, cause‐and‐effect relationships among initiating events and losses may be difficult to ascertain due to interactions of multiple systems and participants (complexity). Moreover, selection of threats, hazards, and consequences on which to focus may be unclear or contentious to participants within multiple interacting systems (ambiguity). Finally, all types of risk, by definition, involve potential losses due to uncertain events (uncertainty). Therefore, risk analysis of extreme events affecting a system of systems should address complex, ambiguous, and uncertain aspects of extreme risk. To accomplish this, a system of systems engineering methodology for risk analysis is proposed as a general approach to address extreme risk in a system of systems. Our contribution is an integrative and adaptive systems methodology to analyze risk such that strategic interactions among multiple participants are considered. A practical application of the system of systems engineering methodology is demonstrated in part by a case study of a maritime infrastructure system of systems interface, namely, the Straits of Malacca and Singapore.     

Systems‐Based Guiding Principles for Risk Modeling,Planning, Assessment,Management, and Communication

This article is grounded on the premise that the complex process of risk assessment, management, and communication, when applied to systems of systems, should be guided by universal systems‐based principles. It is written from the perspective of systems engineering with the hope and expectation that the principles introduced here will be supplemented and complemented by principles from the perspectives of other disciplines. Indeed, there is no claim that the following 10 guiding principles constitute a complete set; rather, the intent is to initiate a discussion on this important subject that will incrementally lead us to a more complete set of guiding principles. The 10 principles are as follows: First Principle: Holism is the common denominator that bridges risk analysis and systems engineering. Second Principle: The process of risk modeling, assessment, management, and communication must be systemic and integrated. Third Principle: Models and state variables are central to quantitative risk analysis. Fourth Principle: Multiple models are required to represent the essence of the multiple perspectives of complex systems of systems. Fifth Principle: Meta‐modeling and subsystems integration must be derived from the intrinsic states of the system of systems. Sixth Principle: Multiple conflicting and competing objectives are inherent in risk management. Seventh Principle: Risk analysis must account for epistemic and aleatory uncertainties. Eighth Principle: Risk analysis must account for risks of low probability with extreme consequences. Ninth Principle: The time frame is central to quantitative risk analysis. Tenth Principle: Risk analysis must be holistic, adaptive, incremental, and sustainable, and it must be supported with appropriate data collection, metrics with which to measure efficacious progress, and criteria on the basis of which to act. The relevance and efficacy of each guiding principle is demonstrated by applying it to the U.S. Federal Aviation Administration complex Next Generation (NextGen) system of systems.     

西部地区电能与环境协调发展系统中政府规制偏好研究

电力产业作为重要的能源部门之一,对整个国民经济发展起到巨大的基础性支撑作用,但其中的火力发电行业所造成的环境污染也给社会带来一系列问题,我国西部地区也不例外。通过将污染物减排过程对经济产生的正的外部性考虑进电能与环境发展系统,并对政府进行理性人的假设,设计电能与环境协调发展系统中的政府规制效用函数,运用计量经济学方法和微观经济学中理性人效用最大化的条件,对我国西部地区1995~2005年电能与环境协调发展系统中的政府规制偏好进行了定量分析。发现在环境法规逐渐完善的基础上,政府对于电能生产的偏好有所下降,对污染物减排的偏好逐渐上升。     

Feeling at Risk Matters: Water Managers and the Decision to Use Forecasts

Experts contend that weather and climate forecasts could have an important role in risk management strategies for community water systems. Yet, most water managers make minimal use of these forecasts. This research explores the determinants of the use of weather and climate forecasts by surveying managers of community water systems in two eastern American states (South Carolina and the Susquehanna River Basin of Pennsylvania). Assessments of the reliability of weather and climate forecasts are not driving their use as water managers who find forecasts reliable are no more likely to use them than are managers who find them unreliable. Although larger systems and those depending on surface water are more likely to use forecasts for some (but not all) purposes, the strongest determinant of forecast use is risk perceptions. Water managers who expect to face problems from weather events in the next decade are much more likely to use forecasts than are water managers who expect few problems. Their expectations of future problems are closely linked with past experience: water managers who have had problems with specific types of weather events (e.g., flood emergencies) in the last 5 years are likely to expect to experience problems in the next decade. Feeling at risk, regardless of the specific source of that weather-related risk, stimulates a decision to use weather and climate forecasts.     

Flexible Servers in Understaffed Tandem Lines

We study the dynamic assignment of cross‐trained servers to stations in understaffed lines with finite buffers. Our objective is to maximize the production rate. We identify optimal server assignment policies for systems with three stations, two servers, different flexibility structures, and either deterministic service times and arbitrary buffers or exponential service times and small buffers. We use these policies to develop server assignment heuristics for Markovian systems with larger buffer sizes that appear to yield near‐optimal throughput. In the deterministic setting, we prove that the best possible production rate with full server flexibility and infinite buffers can be attained with partial flexibility and zero buffers, and we identify the critical skills required to achieve this goal. We then present numerical results showing that these critical skills, employed with an effective server assignment policy, also yield near‐optimal throughput in the Markovian setting, even for small buffer sizes. Thus, our results suggest that partial flexibility is sufficient for near‐optimal performance, and that flexibility structures that are effective for deterministic and infinite‐buffered systems are also likely to perform well for finite‐buffered stochastic systems.     

Information Needs Concerning a Planned Waste Incineration Facility

Waste management has become a major environmental issue in Germany. The siting of waste incineration especially arouses strong local opposition. The study presented here is related to such a case (i.e., a planned waste incineration facility in a small West German village). The study is based on a telephone survey aimed at the information needs of the residents. Two topics are stressed: (1) the thematic relevance of the siting project as seen by the public; and (2) the residents'information needs. The results show that a majority of residents are concerned about the planned facility, and the most important topics of their information needs refer to the risks and the safety systems of the planned facility, as well as information about waste management alternatives. Furthermore, the information needs depend on the personal relevance of the issue and the perceived knowledge deficit about it. Conclusions are drawn with regard to the design of a risk communication program. Here, four groups of residents are distinguished in terms of knowledge and motivation and, thus, need to be approached in different ways.     

Laurie Nordic Ski Center

The proprietor of a ski lodge with Nordic ski trails faces increased competition from other private lodges that are subsidized by government agencies and from a non profit ski club, which is also subsidized by use of government owned land for which the ski club pays no rent. The proprietor must decide what she can do to meet this subsidized competition or whether she should sell her business before profitability disappears.     

Organizations in the Public Sector in Hong Kong: Core Government, Quasi-Government and Private Bodies with Public Functions

Twenty-five years ago, the Hong Kong government was lauded as the model of a small, restricted government which was most suited to capitalist economic growth. Since that time, the government and the organizations which it has created have expanded to such an extent that there has been widespread concern that the public sector has grown too large. This article examines the reasons for the rapid growth in the size of the public sector, reflects on the organizational forms outside the traditional civil service that have been adopted, and analyzes the attempts that have been made to reduce the public bureaucracy by corporatizing and privatizing some of the services that it provides. Central to the argument presented is the question of whether an ideological commitment to small government or other functional and political factors have been the critical determinants of organizational change.     

Globalization,The State and Public Administration: A Theoretical Analysis with Policy Implications for Developmental States

This article discusses the relationship between globalization, the state, and public administration, with implications for developmental states. Using a political economy analysis, globalization is discussed as the latest dynamic change in the context of the continuity within the process of surplus accumulation by corporate capitalism at the global level, a phenomenon with far reaching implications for the modern state, governance, and public administration. First, the context of change and continuity is briefly discussed, followed by a presentation of several theoretical perspectives on, and meanings of, globalization as defined by different people from different disciplines. Then, the causes and consequences of globalization are discussed with implications for the state and public administration. Finally, a number of policy choices are suggested in response to globalization by developmental states, with another discussion on the changing character and role of the state under globalization with implications for the state and public administration worldwide.     

“政策领域-时间维度”双重视角下新能源汽车产业政策央地协同研究

本文以2009—2018年间中央及地方（以北京市等四个地区为例）颁布的263项新能源汽车产业政策为研究样本,从实施领域角度,将产业政策分为财税支持、行业规范、规划引导、监督保障、其他措施等五类,经政策分解,将政策片段与新能源汽车产业链五个环节进行匹配;在此基础上,测度不同时期产业政策央地总体协同度与政策实施领域间的协同度,并通过逐步回归法,确定影响政策协同的各政策效力指标灵敏度。研究表明："中央-北京"和"中央-深圳"的政策措施协同趋势基本一致,产业价值链各环节发展较均衡,而"中央-上海"和"中央-江苏"的政策措施协同趋势基本一致,存在"重使用、轻研发、轻市场"等失调现象;四地区与中央政策措施的协同差异主要体现在研发、生产和回收环节,提升"政策引导"和"保障措施"指标的政策效力有助于提升央地协同水平。根据政策分析,未来政策制定需从优化中央政策推广方式和加强监管保障等政策措施着手,根据产业链不同环节状况适时调整政策措施。     

和谐社会背景下的基层治理机制转变

基层政府治理机制转变是构建和谐社会的基本途径,构建社会主义和谐社会,其中很重要的一个方面是要充分发挥基层组织的作用。基层组织也是国家政权的基础和延伸。公众对执政党的执政理念、执政效果以及政治体系合法性、政治制度合理性的认识与认同,相当程度上是通过基层治理行为获得的。只有建立和完善促进经济良性运行、科学发展的基层政府机制,转变政府职能积极为公众和社会提供基本而有保障的公共产品和有效的公共管理、公共服务才能有利于夯实执政的阶级基础和群众基础,从而促进社会和谐发展。     

Multiple Conceptualizations of Small Business Web Use and Benefit*

Small businesses play an important role in the U.S. economy and there is anecdotal evidence that use of the Web is beneficial to such businesses. There is, however, little systematic analysis of the conditions that lead to successful use of and thereby benefits from the Web for small businesses. Based on the innovation adoption, organizations, and information systems (IS) implementation literature, we identify a set of variables that are related to adoption, use, and benefits of information technology (IT), with particular emphasis on small businesses. These variables are reflective of an organization's contextual characteristics, its IT infrastructure, Web use, and Web benefits. Since the extant research does not suggest a single theoretical model for Web use and benefits in the context of small businesses, we adopt a modeling approach and explore the relationships between “context‐IT‐use‐benefit” (CIUB) through three models—partial‐mediator, reduced partial‐mediator, and mediator. These models posit that the extent of Web use by small businesses and the associated benefits are driven by organizations’ contextual characteristics and their IT infrastructure. They differ in the endogeneity/exogeneity of the extent of IT sophistication, and in the direct/mediated effects of organizational context. We examine whether the relationships between variables identified in the literature hold within the context of these models using two samples of small businesses with national coverage, including various sizes, and representing several industry sectors. The results show that the evidence for patterns of relationships is similar across the two independent samples for two of these models. We highlight the relationships within the reduced partial‐mediator and mediator models for which conclusive evidence are given by both samples. Implications for small business managers and providers of Web‐based technologies are discussed.     

Some Limitations of Qualitative Risk Rating Systems

Qualitative systems for rating animal antimicrobial risks using ordered categorical labels such as “high,”“medium,” and “low” can potentially simplify risk assessment input requirements used to inform risk management decisions. But do they improve decisions? This article compares the results of qualitative and quantitative risk assessment systems and establishes some theoretical limitations on the extent to which they are compatible. In general, qualitative risk rating systems satisfying conditions found in real‐world rating systems and guidance documents and proposed as reasonable make two types of errors: (1) Reversed rankings, i.e., assigning higher qualitative risk ratings to situations that have lower quantitative risks; and (2) Uninformative ratings, e.g., frequently assigning the most severe qualitative risk label (such as “high”) to situations with arbitrarily small quantitative risks and assigning the same ratings to risks that differ by many orders of magnitude. Therefore, despite their appealing consensus‐building properties, flexibility, and appearance of thoughtful process in input requirements, qualitative rating systems as currently proposed often do not provide sufficient information to discriminate accurately between quantitatively small and quantitatively large risks. The value of information (VOI) that they provide for improving risk management decisions can be zero if most risks are small but a few are large, since qualitative ratings may then be unable to confidently distinguish the large risks from the small. These limitations suggest that it is important to continue to develop and apply practical quantitative risk assessment methods, since qualitative ones are often unreliable.     

On the Complex Quantification of Risk: Systems‐Based Perspective on Terrorism

This article highlights the complexity of the quantification of the multidimensional risk function, develops five systems‐based premises on quantifying the risk of terrorism to a threatened system, and advocates the quantification of vulnerability and resilience through the states of the system. The five premises are: (i) There exists interdependence between a specific threat to a system by terrorist networks and the states of the targeted system, as represented through the system's vulnerability, resilience, and criticality‐impact. (ii) A specific threat, its probability, its timing, the states of the targeted system, and the probability of consequences can be interdependent. (iii) The two questions in the risk assessment process: “What is the likelihood?” and “What are the consequences?” can be interdependent. (iv) Risk management policy options can reduce both the likelihood of a threat to a targeted system and the associated likelihood of consequences by changing the states (including both vulnerability and resilience) of the system. (v) The quantification of risk to a vulnerable system from a specific threat must be built on a systemic and repeatable modeling process, by recognizing that the states of the system constitute an essential step to construct quantitative metrics of the consequences based on intelligence gathering, expert evidence, and other qualitative information. The fact that the states of all systems are functions of time (among other variables) makes the time frame pivotal in each component of the process of risk assessment, management, and communication. Thus, risk to a system, caused by an initiating event (e.g., a threat) is a multidimensional function of the specific threat, its probability and time frame, the states of the system (representing vulnerability and resilience), and the probabilistic multidimensional consequences.     

SHADES OF BROWN AND GREEN: PARTY EFFECTS IN PROPORTIONAL ELECTION SYSTEMS

In proportional representation (PR) systems, political power is typically shared across several political parties. Many parties are small and focused on specific policies, such as environmental policy and immigration. Do these small parties matter for policy? I provide the first systematic evidence for this by developing the first regression discontinuity design tailored specifically for PR systems. With this method, which can be applied in all countries with PR systems, I estimate the causal effect of party representation on immigration policy, environmental policy and tax policy using data on Swedish municipalities. The results show that party representation has a large effect on the first two policies, but not on the tax policy.