我国利率平价偏离值的实证分析

随着我国经济体制改革的深入,汇率与利率之间的联动效应引起人们的广泛关注.但由于我国现阶段汇率、利率没有完全市场化和资本自由流动的有限性,利率平价理论的基本假设不能充分满足,因此,利率平价理论在我国应用时必须进行修正,即在利率平价方程的右侧加上摩擦系数.通过对摩擦系数值的研究发现,修正的利率平价模型中,摩擦系数值就是利率平价偏离值,对利率平价偏离值的考察就是对摩擦系数的大小、变化规律的考察.结合1981年到2008年中美汇率、利率每日数据,从图示法、统计学、计量经济学三个方面对利率平价理论在我国的偏离值序列的研究得出:我国利率平价偏离值整体上有缩小的趋势,利率平价偏离值的持续性缩小潜藏着套利风险,外汇市场潜在的套利和投机风险会越来越大.     

人力资本在家庭财富增长中的运用

人力资本的价值在市场环境下总是处于波动之中,从一个人一生财富增长的角度看,其人力资本一般是走上工作岗位后自己所拥有的最大单项资产.随着劳动收入的获取,人力资本价值渐次转化为物质资产,但是这一变现过程是分阶段的,而且表现形式也多种多样.从人力资本模型相关变量与总现值的关系来考察,人力资本的价值波动有规律可循,尤其和已存在的各种物质资本之间具有高度风险相关性.因此,在制定家庭资产配置计划时,需要考虑不同物质资本的战略比例,在一生劳动收入获取的不同阶段,选取较为合适的资产品种,确定股票型和债券型资产的比重,对冲人力资本风险,从而较为稳定地实现财富持续增长.     

基于回归分析的森林资源资产批量评估问题探究

林权制度改革产生了大量森林资源资产评估业务,传统的森林资源资产单项评估的方法不能很好满足日益增长的评估业务需要.批量评估方法是在评估三大基本方法与财产特征数据的基础上,结合数理统计技术和其他相关技术而形成的一种新的评估技术,具有快速评估与成本较低的优势.因此,将批量评估方法应用到森林资源资产评估,将为森林资源资产评估提供新的思路和方法.在森林资源资产批量评估适用性分析的基础上,探讨了森林资源资产批量评估程序;根据影响幼龄林、中龄林、成熟林价值的不同特征因素,运用回归分析技术,分别构建了森林资源资产批量评估模型并提出应对其进行正态性、零均值与等方差性、序列独立性等假设检验.     

资产证券化的发展:主要类型、趋势及启示

资产证券化在国际上已从抵押贷款证券化发展为保险风险证券化、整体业务证券化等,其发展趋势表现为从证券化的消极经营向积极和主动的管理转变、证券化产品的衍生性和证券化风险的复杂性日益增强、证券化资产及市场主体的范围日益拓展.我国要结合资产证券化的发展趋势,根据政府引导与市场化相结合、政策性与商业性相结合的原则,积极稳妥地推进资产证券化的健康发展.     

试论利率平价理论在我国运用的修正

本文利用利率平价理论和汇率超调学说以及参考换汇成本学说，对改革开放以来人成币汇率波动及其与利率的关系进行了检验。并针平价在我国的适用程度的差异，将交易成本和资本管制等因素考虑进去，并修正了利率平价公式，建立了人民币汇率调整的模型，以更好地解释现阶段人民币汇率、利率与资本流动之间的关系，以便更好地来适应国情和指导实践。     

跨国并购财务风险分析与防范

企业并购重组是伴随经济全球化不断深入而形成的一种必然趋势,也是企业管理所涉及到的一个全新内容.在市场全球化、信息全球化的推动以及高新技术产业迅速发展影响下,企业生产要素的配置正向动态开放式转变.中国企业跨国并购的趋势方兴未艾,但要面对财务风险、信息风险、政治法律风险、整合风险等多方面的挑战.这些风险将会在并购准备期、并购交易期和并购整合期出现.面对这些障碍,中国企业应该在充分借鉴美国等国外优秀企业的跨国并购经验的基础上,采取合理的风险防范方法,实施有效的风险管理.通过建立国际风险管理网络,及时发现风险,最终分散风险.从而确保跨国并购目标的顺利实现.     

我国商业银行规模经济的理论解释与实证研究--兼与阚超等先生商榷

阚超等(2004)分析了我国银行业的规模经济问题.此文数据全面、分析规范,可以说是这方面的代表.然而,以阚文为代表的国内相关研究在变量选取和使用时没有考虑资本、风险和资产质量等相关问题,从而得出的结论也各不相同,有的甚至和现实状况不太符合.为了更好地解释商业银行规模经济水平,本文在理论上、方法上对阚文加以完善,将风险、资本等变量作为解释规模经济水平的重要因素,把风险和资本两因素引入计量模型并利用实际数据作了实证分析,同时结合实际情况对我国银行业规模经济的真实状况进行了深入剖析.     

商业银行资产负债结构变化的风险收益分析——基于50家城商行动态面板数据GMM方法

基于2009-2015年中国50家城市商业银行的动态面板数据,运用GMM法研究资产及负债结构调整对城商行风险及盈利能力的影响.研究表明,资产负债结构变化显著影响城商行的风险及收益.一方面,受非存款负债稳定性较低、成本较高的影响,非存款负债融资占比的增加显著加大了样本城商行的破产风险、降低资产收益率水平;另一方面,由于同业及投融资类业务潜在的流动性风险、基础资产信用风险以及较低的资产收益率水平,增加非信贷资产占比同样会显著增加样本城商行的破产风险、降低其盈利能力;此外,城商行规模越大,越能够有效改善资产负债结构变化对其风险收益造成的不利影响.     

基于金融脆弱性的发展中国家新重商主义--对东亚资本流动风险转换特征的解释

对亚洲金融危机后东亚资本流动的风险转换特征,本文提出了一个基于双重代理和利息平价理论的风险补偿分析模型,认为低汇率、经常账户顺差和高国际储备既导致福利损失,也有助于稳定货币信用,降低国家风险与利率水平,促进经济增长.我们把这一政策称为发展中国家的新重商主义,认为这是在全球化条件下,发展中国家对自身金融脆弱性的补偿或担保.这一政策的可行性取决于发达国家和发展中国家间国际收支不平衡的可持续性和可调节性.     

资产证券化的经济学本质:马克思经济理论的视角

资产证券化在演进中形成了种类多样、内容丰富及结构复杂的发展态势,并在金融领域乃至整个经济领域显示了风险积聚和释放的威力.运用马克思的经典经济学理论,阐释资产证券化的经济学本质是虚拟资本虚拟化.作为以信用为基础的虚拟资本的虚拟化过程和社会资本周转的加速机制,资产证券化并不是次贷危机的真正原因,但证券化本身所包含的风险不容忽视,必须通过适度监管,保障资产证券化在金融稳定框架内的安全运行.     

The Interaction Between the Demands for Insurance and Insurable Assets

Holding more of the riskless asset and insuring the risky asset are two ways to reduce portfolio risk. These methods can be employed jointly. As a result, the amount of insurance selected to indemnify against possible losses from holding a risky asset depends, in general, on the quantities of the risky and riskless assets held in the portfolio, and vice versa. In decision models where expected utility is maximized, relatively little has been done to integrate these two decisions into a single model. Such a model is formulated in this paper and the interaction between the demand for insurance and the demand for an insurable risky asset is examined.     

A model of the Canadian global exchange rate: A test of the 1970s

A review of the literature indicates that no single exchange rate model has been able to track successfully the movements of the Canadian dollar for both the 1970–1976 period and the period thereafter. The purchasing power parity model, irrespective of whether based on relative wholesale prices, unit labor costs, GNP deflators, or export prices performs very poorly; the monetarist models collapse because of their strict adherence to the purchasing power parity and interest rate parity assumptions; the portfolio demand models require a significant adjustment for the post-1976 period. This paper presents a medium-term eclectic model of the global exchange rate of the Canadian dollar and examines a spectrum of broad issues that reflect on the efficiency of the foreign exchange market of Canada. These issues are basically related to the interest parity assumption, the role of speculation, and the test of rational expectations. The global exchange rate is defined as the value of the Canadian dollar measured in terms of a unit of basket of currencies comprising currencies of France, West Germany, Japan, the U.K., and the USA. The model belongs to the same genre of balance of payments structural models that explain the exchange rates by balancing demand and supply of foreign currencies. The model simultaneously explains both spot and forward rates, and it has been estimated and tested by using the quarterly data for 1971–1981.     

Policy modeling of foreign exchange rates

This paper is neither a complete survey of empirical work on exchange rate determination, nor a review of the ballooning volume of theoretical models. It is instead an attempt to classify the main alternative approaches to modeling exchange rates. I shall concentrate on approaches that can be used to assess the effects of alternative policies. There will be four further sections in the paper. The first three sections will each deal withthe structure, empirical support, and policy consequences of three main types of model: purchasing power parity models emphasizing the close and immediate relation of goods markets; interest rate parity models emphasizing the close and immediate international linkage of markets for financial assets; and structural balance-of-payments models that do not assume either of the above linkages to be so strong and immediate as to eliminate the other, and that hence require separate (but interdependent) modeling of trade and capital linkages in the determination of exchange rates. Each of these main categories has many rather distinct models within it, and some models are not easily classified into one of the three categories; I hope that the three-way split will nevertheless serve to make some distinctions that are important for policy modeling.In the final section I shall try to summarize the available model results that pertain to national and international policy choices under a system of more flexible exchange rates, and then to suggest where more or better model building might usefully increase the amount of information available to guide policy decisions.     

Experimental evidence on valuation with multiple priors

Popular models for decision making under ambiguity assume that people use not one but multiple priors. This paper is a first attempt to experimentally elicit the min and the max of multiple priors directly. In an ambiguous scenario we measure a participant’s single prior, her min and max of multiple priors, and the valuation of an ambiguous asset with the same underlying states as the ambiguous scenario. We use the min and the max of multiple priors to directly test two popular multiple priors models: the maxmin model and the α maxmin model. We find more support for the α maxmin model: although people put about twice the weight on the minimum of multiple priors, they also consider the maximum. Furthermore, we indirectly elicit confidence weights over the whole set of multiple priors and test two additional models: variational preferences and the smooth model of ambiguity. Two particular versions of the variational preferences model explain less than the α maxmin but more than the maxmin model. Overall, the smooth model of ambiguity performs best among all models tested.     

Giving in the face of risk

Decisions about how to share resources with others often need to be taken under uncertainty regarding its allocational consequences. Although risk preferences are likely important, existing research is silent about how social and risk preferences interact in such situations. In this paper we provide experimental evidence on this question. In a first experiment givers are not exposed to risk while beneficiaries’ final earnings may be larger or smaller than the allocation itself, depending on the realized state of the world. In a second experiment, risk affects the earnings of givers but not of beneficiaries. We find that individuals’ risk preferences are predictive for giving in both experiments. Increased risk exposure of beneficiaries tends to decrease giving whereas increased risk exposure of givers has no effect. We propose a simple non-linear generalization of a model allowing for other-regarding preferences, ex-post and ex-ante fairness, and risk aversion. We find some support for it in our data when risk is on the beneficiaries’ side but less so when risk is on the givers’ side. Our results point to the importance of the further development of models of social preferences that also incorporate risk preferences.     

Externalizing an ‘Asset Model’ of Activation: Creative Institutional Work by Frontline Workers in the Norwegian Labour and Welfare Service

The past two decades have brought significant shifts in Norwegian activation policy towards a joined‐up and employability‐enhancing approach to labour market inclusion in order to promote return‐to‐work despite health problems or disabilities. Utilizing a concept from health promotion, we term this approach an ‘asset model’ of activation. The Norwegian Labour and Welfare Service (NAV) and its local offices are the main agents implementing the new policy. This article aims to investigate the strategies that the frontline workers of NAV engage in, in order to externalize an ‘asset model’ in the adjacent medical field and to the general practitioners (GPs) in particular. We analyze these strategies as forms of creative institutional work – the purposive actions undertaken to change existing presumptions and opinions among relevant actors. We argue that although the new activation policy is not theirs to develop, in order to bring about changes in practice, ‘creating’ institutional work by the frontline workers is required. Our findings show that the frontline workers develop strategies in order to externalize an asset model to the GPs, as part of operationalizing an ‘activation’ reform into practice. We identify four forms of ‘creating’ institutional work undertaken by the frontline workers: ‘defining’ – enacting legislation and regulation in relation to GPs; ‘constructing normative networks’ – creating a more collaborative relationship with the GPs; ‘educating’ – teaching the GPs about the rules and regulations, and the opportunities and assistive measures they can offer to the injured; and thereby also ‘changing normative associations’ of GPs towards the activation policy.     

Put–call parity and generalized neo-additive pricing rules

We study price formulas suited for empirical research in financial markets in which put–call parity is satisfied. We find a connection between risk and the bid–ask spread. We further study the compatibility of the model with market frictions, and determine market subsets where the Fundamental Theorem of Asset Pricing applies. Finally, we characterize the price formula.

     

国内外商业银行房地产贷款风险管理比较研究

商业银行房地产贷款业务是商业银行资产业务的重要组成部分。目前 ,最大的金融风险是商业银行贷款风险 ,尤其是商业银行房地产贷款风险 ,因此 ,风险管理就显得非常重要和必要     

从资产证券化的理论体系看中国突破模式的选择--兼论现有的八大建议模式

从资产运营和广义资产证券化的角度来考察 ,资产证券化的理论体系包括 :一个核心原理———现金流分析 ,三个基本原理———资产重组原理、风险隔离原理和信用增级原理 ,从这个理论出发 ,选择资产证券化突破模式时必须遵循三个原则 :基础资产必须满足“资产重组原理”的要求 ;能为资产证券化在中国的进一步开展提供示范效应和经验 ;在制度和环境方面只能是两个选择 ,一个是选择与现行制度和环境冲突最小的交易形式 ,一个是最有条件突破现有制度和环境约束的交易形式。依据这三个原则对现有的八大建议模式进行考察 ,可以得出中国开展资产证券化有两个突破模式 :“住房抵押贷款模式” +“准表外模式” ;“基础设施收费模式” +“离岸模式”。     

对人力资源会计研究的质疑与设想

虽然实施人力资源会计迫在眉睫 ,但多年来我国人力资源会计始终处于理论研究阶段 ,实际运用困难重重 ,主要原因在于存在研究误区 ,使现有的计量方法和模型难以应用。当前人力资源会计的学科归属、计量方法、人力资产及人力资本核算内容等存在许多问题。从具有可操作性出发 ,根据人力资产是能为企业带来超额收益的那部分人力资源的观点对人力资产及人力资本的计量、核算和报告形式等进行更为科学的设计。