中国工业智能化如何重塑制造业企业分布格局

文章结合2009—2017年我国省级面板数据,从地区间与地区内两方面构建制造业企业分布指标,考察地区层面工业智能化对制造业企业分布的影响,进一步从规模异质性与生产经营范围的制造业企业异质性出发,检验地区工业智能化对制造业企业分布的企业差异性。结果发现:(1)工业智能化对中国地区制造业企业产生显著正向集聚效应,考虑内生性问题之后也得出相同结论。(2)工业智能化对制造业企业在地区间及地区内的分布因企业规模与涵盖经营范围而存在显著差异,伴随地区工业智能化应用程度的提高,小规模制造企业以及单一经营范围制造企业比重不断降低,而规模制造企业以及多元化经营制造企业占比逐渐增加。(3)生产率、劳动结构以及市场竞争在工业智能化对地区制造业企业分布的影响中存在明显的正向集聚效应。     

外部性、城市规模与城市增长——对长三角地区16个城市的分析

本文利用长三角16个城市的面板数据分析了外部性对城市发展的影响,并给出了城市规模调整的理论参考和规模分布情况,研究发现,规模经济的增加和拥挤效应的降低对城市经济增长有重要作用,长三角城市规模的理论最优值在759万人左右,对规模一位序法则的分析表明人口在各城市之间的分布存在过于集中在少数几个城市的现象.在新一轮促进长三角城市经济增长的目标下,除上海之外的各城市还应增加城市人口规模,同时要实现人口从上海向其他城市的适度转移,使城市规模分布符合城市发展的客观规律.     

比较优势、规模经济与城市竞争力的理论分析

国内外学者在对城市竞争力的研究中,往往侧重城市竞争力的测算和排名,缺乏对城市竞争力形成的原因进行深度的理论分析,本文主要借用国际贸易中的比较优势理论和规模经济理论来分析城市竞争力形成的原因。文章指出,外部规模经济是形成城市竞争力的关键因素,产业集群是外部规模经济的表现形式,并用新古典经济学、新制度经济学、新增长理论和产业组织理论对外部规模经济形成竞争优势的原因展开理论分析。最后,文章以深圳为例进一步说明在开放和创新基础上形成的外部规模经济是产生强大城市竞争力的根本原因,培植关键产业的城市集群是提升城市未来竞争力的政策取向。     

中国入境旅游外汇收入预测研究——基于多种灰色组合模型的应用

入境旅游外汇收入是一国旅游业竞争力的重要体现,根据2000—2015年我国入境旅游外汇收入数据,构建GM(1,1)模型、多项式模型、对数模型、指数模型等多种模型的组合模型,通过各单一模型对比发现,灰色组合模型能够明显地提高预测精度,对2016—2020年我国入境旅游外汇收入进行预测,并对提高入境旅游外汇收入提出了旅游产业因果关系向关联关系意识转变,进一步凝练与打造地方特色牌,进一步完善旅游基础设施建设,优化入境旅游消费结构,加强从业人员国际化水平,协调环境保护与经济发展的关系等对策建议.     

中国入境旅游发展与社会对外开放关系的实证研究

中国入境旅游的开放发展受益于中国社会的整体对外开放。研究表明:入境旅游开放度与社会对外开放度之间不存在稳定的长期影响;外资开放度、外贸开放度、教育开放度、文化开放度、交通开放度、技术开放度对入境旅游开放度的影响存在差异,仅有外资开放度对入境旅游开放度产生长期的稳定影响,未来需要加强对外商投资的进一步开放力度,推动中国入境旅游开放发展水平得到更大提升。     

京津冀一体化对首都人口规模的影响

京津冀区域一体化人口规模预测的主要功能,是反映该区域经济、社会、人口发展的基本走势,包括未来集聚的程度、增长速度、主要结构变动的情况。本文首先对该区域现有的人口数据进行了必要的校核;其次,对京津冀区域总人口增长和城镇化发展的历史轨迹与特点进行分析,阐述未来影响区域总人口增长和城镇化发展的主要因素和变化趋势;最后,采用多模型预测,给出了区域及各城市总人口规模的预测值。     

基于网络经济的高技术虚拟企业规模经济分析

实行垂直一体化和多元化经营的大企业可以实现古典和新古典经济学所描述的具有成本优势的规模经济。现代网络经济要求规模经济不仅要具有成本优势,还应具有速度和产品差异上的优势。由一些高科技中小企业各自贡献其核心能力而形成的高技术虚拟企业,可以满足现代市场的新要求,形成了具有速度性和产品差异化优势的规模经济。     

基于产品特性视角的农民专业合作社组织结构与运营绩效分析

不同产品类型的农民专业合作社,会有组织结构与运营绩效的差异,以往国内的农民专业合作社研究往往在忽略产品特性的情况下进行分析,这会影响研究结果的正确性和适用范围.浙江省2007年粮食类、食用菌类、花卉苗木类和农业生产服务类的399家合作社组织,在组织规模、治理结构与运营绩效上都存在不同程度发展差异.运用非参数检验当中的Kruskal wallis检验方法,发现不同产品类型的合作社,不但在成员和资本规模上有着明显区别,而且在年总收入、总盈余和相应的利润水平上也有统计学意义上的显著差异.因此,对不同产品类型合作社要有差异化的评价要求,对不同产品类型合作社要有针对性的扶持政策,但要坚持对合作社的民主控制原则,确保合作社的益贫组织旨趣实现.     

为何城市总体规划 不能准确预测未来人口规模? ——对中国城镇化经济动因的空间计量分析

梳理16个城市历次城市总体规划对其未来人口规模的预测,发现近80%的样本低估了未来人口规模。因此通过构架劳动力转移模型,并使用空间计量模型分析2000-2017年间中国31个省市城镇化的经济动因,发现:第二、三产业比重越高、市场化程度越高、城乡收入差越大、房地产占GDP比重越高、人口增长速度越高的地区,城镇化率也越高,而资本形成占GDP比重越高的地区城镇化率越低,GDP增速对城镇化率没有显著影响。基于驱动城镇化的计量结果,认为有三方面原因导致预测人口规模失败:一是政府忽略了人口转移的经济规律,二是由于制度原因政府偏好小城镇并刻意压低人口规模,三是苏联模式后遗症的影响。因此,在未来城市发展进程中,应结合人口转移的经济规律进行城市规模预测,继续强化市场机制建设,充分信任市场作为资源配置的主要机制,减少制度性障碍,积极调整公共资源的供给缺口,认真落实社会法治,做好公平市场竞争机制的维护者。     

使用六普数据对中国未来人口规模趋势的预测——兼论未来50年中国人口规模衰减的程度

当前,针对中国未来人口的预测模型或多或少地忽略了历史事件对人口规模的影响,没有考虑到中国人口结构的特殊性。中国人口结构的特殊性源于多重历史事件的影响——新中国建立前的众多战争、建国后的饥荒、70年代生育高峰等历史事件对当代人口结构有着深刻的影响。这使得总和生育率、男女性别比、预期寿命等重要人口学指标无法转化为"规则"的函数表达式,因而无法使用纵贯数据或已有数理模型来预测中国未来人口规模。所幸,当代中国的人口变化已经趋于平缓,人均预期寿命的增长度已经降低。在这种情况下,可以通过一种特殊的方法预测中国未来人口变化趋势——基于第六次人口普查数据构建出虚拟的中国历史人口数据,并基于此对中国未来人口规模进行预测。预测发现,2020年以后,在不同总和生育率水平之下,中国人口规模均呈快速衰减趋势。     

循环经济与可持续发展刍议

发展循环经济已经成为当今世界的潮流和趋势,循环经济将经济活动组织成为"资源-产品-消费-再生资源"的物质反复循环的闭环式流程,从上世纪90年代确定可持续发展战略以来,发达国家正在把发展循环经济、建立循环型社会看作是实施可持续发展战略的重要途径和实现方式.循环经济是集经济、技术、社会于一体的系统工程,其启动和推广不仅需要政府、企业、科学界和公众等社会各界的不懈努力和共同参与,而且需要资金、技术以及法规、制度等软硬环境的强力支撑.     

Ethical and Regulatory Challenges in Psychophysiology and Neuroscience-Based Technology for Determining Behavior

In the past three decades, there has been an explosion in research to understand the mechanisms of brain function. Recent advances in psychophysiology and neuroscience, while still limited, have sparked great interest in developing technologies that could peer into the brain and be used to identify or indicate certain behaviors. The polygraph (lie detector) represents an old technology used for discerning clues to the human brain; functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) represents one of the newest efforts. The use of these technologies in intelligence and counterintelligence in the field without validation represents a major concern about its usefulness. Both research on this new technology and subsequent use on public raise ethical challenges. This article will address the overall ethical issues associated with these new technologies. The report identifies the ethical and cultural challenges in conducting research on these new tools, explores the possibility of using current U.S. regulatory requirements regarding drugs and devices as a model for regulating these new technologies, and suggests approaches for the future.     

Feminist Criticism in The Scarlet Letter

The Scarlet Letter written by Nathaniel Hawthorne is a great book. Through feminist criticism we can get how The Scarlet Letter may be read as dramatizing Hester Prynne's spiritual and physical struggle to survive as an individual in a society whose values authorize the privileged power of men.     

Considering Improvisation: Play,Transitional Space,and Discovery

This article explores the concept of improvisation in the therapeutic setting as a complex construction when elaborated in the idiom of jazz music. A composite clinical case is offered that illustrates an impasse and how improvisational thinking offers a way forward. Improvisation has recently been conceptualized through the metaphor of theater improvisation, dance, and rhythm. The therapeutic hour is considered an improvisational dialogue with the main theme (melody) and counter melodies, and harmonic possibilities that underlie the rhythmic pulse of the hour. Improvisation requires a reflective/interpretive process that draws on patterns, structures, and experiences reformulated in the relational field of the participants. The client initiates the call and response pattern, from which improvisation emerges as a mutual process of discovery. A more relaxed, receptive, and reflective posture extends Winnicott’s 1971 notion of play to integrate classic understanding and relational interaction.     

Youth‐oriented active labour market policies and economic crisis: Explaining policy effort in Greece and Portugal

The starting point of this study is the implementation of seemingly similar youth‐oriented labour market policies in Greece and Portugal. Both countries have suffered high youth unemployment rates and have been pressured to restructure their labour market as part of the rescue programmes adopted during the European sovereign debt crisis. Despite convergence in terms of policy trajectories, there is a significant divergence in employment outcomes. In Portugal, youth‐oriented policies were better‐targeted and structured. Their implementation has been more effective and has involved the social partners from the outset of the crisis. In Greece, policy design failures, administrative weaknesses and unfavourable macroeconomic conditions have limited the dynamics of youth‐oriented policies thus increasing youth insecurity. Τhe analysis suggests that convergence in policy content can be compatible with divergence in terms of outcomes.     

简论中国艺术思维的基本形态

中国艺术思维的基本形态包括:观察、摹形、情感、想象、象征、整体、妙悟。观察是中国艺术思维的起点之一;人类早期的造型艺术,就是从摹形发展而来的;中国艺术十分强调情感因素;想象是中国艺术的基本形态之一;中国艺术思维具有强烈的象征性;中国艺术历来讲究整体性;妙悟是中国艺术思维的特有现象。     

Little cash to large households: Cash transfers and children's care in disadvantaged families in Ghana

Social protection is widely considered to have a positive effect on children, including supporting improvements in nutritional, educational and health outcomes. Much less is known, however, about the impact of interventions on children's care. This article considers the impact of a social cash transfer targeted at poor households – Ghana's Livelihood Empowerment Against Poverty (LEAP) programme – on child well‐being, quality of care and preventing children's separation from their parents as perceived by programme and non‐programme beneficiaries in a context of vulnerability, large households and widespread informal kinship care. Findings suggest that cash transfers can improve both material and non‐material aspects of well‐being and contribute to the quality of care and have the potential to prevent children's separation from their parents. At the same time, not all children appear to benefit equally, with non‐biological children being disadvantaged. The combination of large household sizes with programme design and implementation challenges, including low transfer amounts, a cap on the maximum number of eligible household members and poor sensitization and follow‐up, undermine the positive role that cash transfers can play.     

How to read efficiently

At present, the university graduates have mountains of books to read. For this phenomenon, this paper first indicates why the students must read extensively and then tentatively suggests three measures establish new concept in reading, practise reading pragmatically, review and exchange.     

Nepal's Child Grant: A mixed‐methods assessment of implementation bottlenecks

This article evaluates the implementation of the Child Grant, one of the major social protection interventions in Nepal, and identifies bottlenecks that limit its ultimate effectiveness. On the whole, while delivery works for many beneficiaries, we found inconsistencies between the way the policy is laid out on paper, and the way it is actually implemented. Targeting efficiency is high, despite the wealth targeting criterion not being applied in practice. Owing to informal awareness‐raising campaigns, beneficiaries’ knowledge on registration, eligibility and entitlement is patchy. Payment levels vary and tend to be infrequent. These implementation bottlenecks limit the Grant's effectiveness and temper some of its impact potential.     

Rethinking melas as subaltern spaces: Pardhan blacksmiths and some aspects of ‘caste-passing’ in fairs, 1872–1931

Nineteenth-century melas (fairs) were evanescent public spaces that facilitated anonymity and unplanned encounters between castes, classes, men and women. By recognizing caste-passing in various mela clusters, historians gain insights into a range of subaltern debates about caste. Caste-passing involved lower caste adoption of the accouterments of upper castes and threatened social hierarchy. Opaque to police, associational life within fairs signified a society undergoing transformation. The figure of the Pardhan blacksmith embodied the unknowable fair-going crowd. Hailing from an adivasi (indigenous) community in the Central Provinces of India, these blacksmiths attracted police notice. Pardhan blacksmiths deployed their skills towards manufacturing imitation gold; at the fair they passed off as members of upper castes. For the police, Pardhan caste-passing within fairs threatened to unravel taxonomies of tribe and caste, region and religion. It was at the fair that hounded and persecuted Pardhan blacksmiths found some respite from the theft of their lands and labour. Through an analysis of caste-passing, a social history emerges of nineteenth-century fairs in colonial India that foregrounds experiences of those fairgoers who were members of ‘criminal tribes’ persecuted by colonial police, and the plebeian multitude that mingled in melas and participated in anti-caste debates.