Empirical Bayes estimation for the mean of the selected normal population when there are additional data

ABSTRACT

This paper is concerned with the problem of estimation for the mean of the selected population from two normal populations with unknown means and common known variance in a Bayesian framework. The empirical Bayes estimator, when there are available additional observations, is derived and its bias and risk function are computed. The expected bias and risk of the empirical Bayes estimator and the intuitive estimator are compared. It is shown that the empirical Bayes estimator is asymptotically optimal and especially dominates the intuitive estimator in terms of Bayes risk, with respect to any normal prior. Also, the Bayesian correlation between the mean of the selected population (random parameter) and some interested estimators are obtained and compared.     

Bayes Prediction for a Stratified Regression Superpopulation Model Using Balanced Loss Function

We consider the stratified regression superpopulation model and obtain Bayes predictor of the finite population mean under Zellner's two-criterion balanced loss function (BLF). BLF predictor simplifies to a linear combination of the sample and predictive means. Furthermore, it reduces to some of the well-known classical and Bayes predictors. Relative losses and relative savings loss are obtained to investigate loss robustness of the BLF predictor. It is found to perform better than the usual sample mean as well as the predictive mean in the minimal Bayes predictive expected loss sense.     

指数族分布中参数的经验贝叶斯估计

指数族分布是一类应用广泛的分布类,包括了泊松分布、Gamma分布、Beta分布、二项分布等常见分布.在非寿险中,索赔额或索赔次数过程常常被假定服从指数族分布,由于风险的非齐次性,指数族分布中的参数θ也为随机变量,假定服从指数族共轭先验分布.此时风险参数的估计落入了Bayes框架,风险参数θ的Bayes估计被表达“信度”形式.然而,在实际运用中,由于先验分布与样本分布中仍然含有结构参数,根据样本的边际分布的似然函数估计结构参数,从而获得风险参数的经验Bayes估计,最后证明了该经验Bayes估计是渐近最优的.     

Bayes and Empirical Bayes Inference in Changepoint Problems

ABSTRACT

In the case of the random design nonparametric regression, the double smoothing technique is applied to estimate the multivariate regression function. The proposed estimator has desirable properties in both the finite sample and the asymptotic cases. In the finite sample case, it has bounded conditional (and unconditional) bias and variance. On the other hand, in the asymptotic case, it has the same mean square error as the local linear estimator in Fan (Design-Adaptive Nonparametric Regression. Journal of the American Statistical Association 1992, 87, 998–1004; Local Linear Regression Smoothers and Their Minimax Efficiencies. Annals of Statistics 1993, 21, 196–216). Simulation studies demonstrate that the proposed estimator is better than the local linear estimator, because it has a smaller sample mean integrated square error and gives smoother estimates.     

A Mixed Model-assisted Regression Estimator that Uses Variables Employed at the Design Stage

The Generalized regression estimator (GREG) of a finite population mean or total has been shown to be asymptotically optimal when the working linear regression model upon which it is based includes variables related to the sampling design. In this paper a regression estimator assisted by a linear mixed superpopulation model is proposed. It accounts for the extra information coming from the design in the random component of the model and saves degrees of freedom in finite sample estimation. This procedure combines the larger asymptotic efficiency of the optimal estimator and the greater finite sample stability of the GREG. Design based properties of the proposed estimator are discussed and a small simulation study is conducted to explore its finite sample performance.     

Iterative regularisation in nonparametric instrumental regression

This paper considers the nonparametric regression model with an additive error that is correlated with the explanatory variables. Motivated by empirical studies in epidemiology and economics, it also supposes that valid instrumental variables are observed. However, the estimation of a nonparametric regression function by instrumental variables is an ill-posed linear inverse problem with an unknown but estimable operator. We provide a new estimator of the regression function that is based on projection onto finite dimensional spaces and that includes an iterative regularisation method (the Landweber–Fridman method). The optimal number of iterations and the convergence of the mean square error of the resulting estimator are derived under both strong and weak source conditions. A Monte Carlo exercise shows the impact of some parameters on the estimator and concludes on the reasonable finite sample performance of the new estimator.     

Extended linear empirical bayes estimation

In this paper, the linear empirical Bayes estimation method, which is based on approximation of the Bayes estimator by a linear function, is generalized to an extended linear empirical Bayes estimation technique which represents the Bayes estimator by a series of algebraic polynomials. The extended linear empirical Bayes estimators are elaborated in the case of a location or a scale parameter. The theory is illustrated by examples of its application to the normal distribution with a location parameter and the gamma distribution with a scale parameter. The linear and the extended linear empirical Bayes estimators are constructed in these two cases and, then, studied numerically via Monte Carlo simulations. The simulations show that the extended linear empirical Bayes estimators have better convergence rates than the traditional linear empirical Bayes estimators.     

A linear regression with unobserved dependent variables

Let (?,X) be a random vector such that E(X|?) = ? and Var(x|?) a + b? + c?² for some known constants a, b and c. Assume X₁,…,X_n are independent observations which have the same distribution as X. Let t(X) be the linear regression of ? on X. The linear empirical Bayes estimator is used to approximate the linear regression function. It is shown that under appropriate conditions, the linear empirical Bayes estimator approximates the linear regression well in the sense of mean squared error.     

Bayesian Estimation of Regression Coefficients Under Extended Balanced Loss Function

Appreciating the desirability of simultaneously using both the criteria of goodness of fitted model and clustering of estimates around true parameter values, an extended version of the balanced loss function is presented and the Bayesian estimation of regression coefficients is discussed. The thus obtained optimal estimator is then compared with the least squares estimator and posterior mean vector with respect to the criteria like posterior expected loss, Bayes risk, bias vector, mean squared error matrix and risk function.     

Adaptive nonparametric empirical Bayes estimation via wavelet series: The minimax study

In the present paper, we derive lower bounds for the risk of the nonparametric empirical Bayes estimators. In order to attain the optimal convergence rate, we propose generalization of the linear empirical Bayes estimation method which takes advantage of the flexibility of the wavelet techniques. We present an empirical Bayes estimator as a wavelet series expansion and estimate coefficients by minimizing the prior risk of the estimator. As a result, estimation of wavelet coefficients requires solution of a well-posed low-dimensional sparse system of linear equations. The dimension of the system depends on the size of wavelet support and smoothness of the Bayes estimator. An adaptive choice of the resolution level is carried out using Lepski et al. (1997) method. The method is computationally efficient and provides asymptotically optimal adaptive EB estimators. The theory is supplemented by numerous examples.     

A note on james-stein and bayes empiricl bayes estimators

In an empirical Bayes decision problem, a simple class of estimators is constructed that dominate the James-Stein

estimator, A prior distribution A is placed on a restricted (normal) class G of priors to produce a Bayes empirical Bayes estimator, The Bayes empirical Bayes estimator is smooth, admissible, and asymptotically optimal. For certain A rate of convergence to minimum Bayes risk is 0(n^-1)uniformly on G. The results of a Monte Carlo study are presented to demonstrate the favorable risk bebhavior of the Bayes estimator In comparison with other competitors including the James-Stein estimator.     

A Generalized Class of Ratio Type Exponential Estimators of Population Mean Under Linear Transformation of Auxiliary Variable

Recently, Shabbir and Gupta [Shabbir, J. and Gupta, S. (2011). On estimating finite population mean in simple and stratified random sampling. Communications in Statistics-Theory and Methods, 40(2), 199–212] defined a class of ratio type exponential estimators of population mean under a very specific linear transformation of auxiliary variable. In the present article, we propose a generalized class of ratio type exponential estimators of population mean in simple random sampling under a very general linear transformation of auxiliary variable. Shabbir and Gupta's [Shabbir, J. and Gupta, S. (2011). On estimating finite population mean in simple and stratified random sampling. Communications in Statistics-Theory and Methods, 40(2), 199–212] class of estimators is a particular member of our proposed class of estimators. It has been found that the optimal estimator of our proposed generalized class of estimators is always more efficient than almost all the existing estimators defined under the same situations. Moreover, in comparison to a few existing estimators, our proposed estimator becomes more efficient under some simple conditions. Theoretical results obtained in the article have been verified by taking a numerical illustration. Finally, a simulation study has been carried out to see the relative performance of our proposed estimator with respect to some existing estimators which are less efficient under certain conditions as compared to the proposed estimator.     

Estimating variances of strata in ranked set sampling

In RSS, the variance of observations in each ranked set plays an important role in finding an optimal design for unbalanced RSS and in inferring the population mean. The empirical estimator (i.e., the sample variance in a given ranked set) is most commonly used for estimating the variance in the literature. However, the empirical estimator does not use the information in the entire data over different ranked sets. Further, it is highly variable when the sample size is not large enough, as is typical in RSS applications. In this paper, we propose a plug-in estimator for the variance of each set, which is more efficient than the empirical one. The estimator uses a result in order statistics which characterizes the cumulative distribution function (CDF) of the rth order statistics as a function of the population CDF. We analytically prove the asymptotic normality of the proposed estimator. We further apply it to estimate the standard error of the RSS mean estimator. Both our simulation and empirical study show that our estimators consistently outperform existing methods.     

Estimation of Population Mean in the Presence of Linear Trend

The present article deals with some methods for estimation of finite populations means in the presence of linear trend among the population values. As a result, we provided a strategy for the selection of sampling interval k for the case of circular systematic sampling, which ensures better estimator for the population mean compared to other choices of the sampling interval. This has been established based on empirical studies. Further we more, applied multiple random starts methods for selecting random samples for the case of linear systematic sampling and diagonal systematic sampling schemes. We also derived the explicit expressions for the variances and their estimates. The relative performances of simple random sampling, linear systematic sampling and diagonal systematic sampling schemes with single and multiple random starts are also assessed based on numerical examples.     

Inference on proportional hazard rate model parameter under Type-I progressively hybrid censoring scheme

ABSTRACT

In this paper, under Type-I progressive hybrid censoring sample, we obtain maximum likelihood estimator of unknown parameter when the parent distribution belongs to proportional hazard rate family. We derive the conditional probability density function of the maximum likelihood estimator using moment-generating function technique. The exact confidence interval is obtained and compared by conducting a Monte Carlo simulation study for burr Type XII distribution. Finally, we obtain the Bayes and posterior regret gamma minimax estimates of the parameter under a precautionary loss function with precautionary index k = 2 and compare their behavior via a Monte Carlo simulation study.     

On finite mixture of two-component gompertz lifetime model

The Gompertz distribution has been used as a growth model, especially in epidemiological and biomedical studies. Based on Type I and II censored samples from a heterogeneous population that can be represented by a finite mixture of two-component Gompertz lifetime model, the maximum likelihood and Bayes estimates of the parameters, reliability and hazard rate functions are obtained. An approximation form due to Lindley (1980) is used in obtaining the corresponding Bayes estimates. The maximum likelihood and Bayes estimates are comparedvia a Monte Carlo simulation study.     

Regularized Posteriors in Linear Ill‐Posed Inverse Problems

Abstract. We study the Bayesian solution of a linear inverse problem in a separable Hilbert space setting with Gaussian prior and noise distribution. Our contribution is to propose a new Bayes estimator which is a linear and continuous estimator on the whole space and is stronger than the mean of the exact Gaussian posterior distribution which is only defined as a measurable linear transformation. Our estimator is the mean of a slightly modified posterior distribution called regularized posterior distribution. Frequentist consistency of our estimator and of the regularized posterior distribution is proved. A Monte Carlo study and an application to real data confirm good small‐sample properties of our procedure.     

General procedure for estimating the population mean using ranked set sampling

In this paper, we suggest a class of estimators for estimating the population mean ? of the study variable Y using information on X?, the population mean of the auxiliary variable X using ranked set sampling envisaged by McIntyre [A method of unbiased selective sampling using ranked sets, Aust. J. Agric. Res. 3 (1952), pp. 385–390] and developed by Takahasi and Wakimoto [On unbiased estimates of the population mean based on the sample stratified by means of ordering, Ann. Inst. Statist. Math. 20 (1968), pp. 1–31]. The estimator reported by Kadilar et al. [Ratio estimator for the population mean using ranked set sampling, Statist. Papers 50 (2009), pp. 301–309] is identified as a member of the proposed class of estimators. The bias and the mean-squared error (MSE) of the proposed class of estimators are obtained. An asymptotically optimum estimator in the class is identified with its MSE formulae. To judge the merits of the suggested class of estimators over others, an empirical study is carried out.     

Empirical bayes estimation of binomial parameter with symmetric priors

This paper deals with the problem of estimating the binomial parameter via the nonparametric empirical Bayes approach. This estimation problem has the feature that estimators which are asymptotically optimal in the usual empirical Bayes sense do not exist (Robbins (1958, 1964)), However, as pointed out by Liang (1934) and Gupta and Liang (1988), it is possible to construct asymptotically optimal empirical Bayes estimators if the unknown prior is symmetric about the point 1/2, In this paper, assuming symmetric priors a monotone empirical Bayes estimator is constructed by using the isotonic regression method. This estimator is asymptotically optimal in the usual empirical Bayes sense. The corresponding rate of convergence is investigated and shown to be of order n^-1, where n is the number of past observations at hand.     

Bayesian Approach in Nonparametric Count Regression with Binomial Kernel

Recently, Kokonendji et al. have adapted the well-known Nadaraya–Watson kernel estimator for estimating the count function m in the context of nonparametric discrete regression. The authors have also investigated the bandwidth selection using the cross-validation method. In this article, we propose a Bayesian approach in the context of nonparametric count regression for estimating the bandwidth and the variance of the model error, which has not been estimated in Kokonendji et al. The model error is considered as Gaussian with mean of zero and a variance of σ². The Bayes estimates cannot be obtained in closed form and then, we use the well-known Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) technique to compute the Bayes estimates under the squared errors loss function. The performance of this proposed approach and the cross-validation method are compared through simulation and real count data.