统筹城乡的人口预测模型构建与应用——以陕西省城乡人口分年龄预测为例

探索分城乡、分年龄的人口预测方法对于制定经济、社会发展规划,规避未来人口结构变动带来的风险具有基础理论意义.本文在文献回顾的基础上,定性描述了统筹城乡的人口预测思路,据此对人口发展方程进行了改进,构建了考虑人口城乡迁移和人口区域流动因素的人口分年龄预测模型;运用陕西省的人口数据进行了参数设定,对2008-2050年陕西省城乡分年龄人口进行了预测,研究发现,陕西省总人口呈先升后降的趋势,人口高峰年为2037年;城镇人口数总体上升,农村人口数总体下降.     

统筹城乡发展中的人口政策研究述评

认真研究统筹城乡发展中的人口政策问题对统筹城乡发展和统筹解决人口问题都具有非常重要的意义。统筹城乡发展中的人口政策研究涉及到了统筹解决城乡人口数量、素质、结构、分布的协调发展问题．包括了人口与计划生育、人力资源开发与教育、社会保障、就业与劳动保障等方面的内容。目前较多成果集中在人口政策对统筹城乡发展的重要性、意义、作用路径与方式等方面。未来还需要在对人口政策体系进行调研的基础上进行全面系统地研究。文章最后提出了系统研究统筹城乡发展中的人口政策内容。     

创新人口计生工作服务统筹城乡综合配套改革

2003年，四川省成都市委、市政府做出统筹城乡协调发展的重大决策，拉开了全市推进城乡一体化的序幕；2007年，国务院确定成都为全国统筹城乡综合配套改革试验区。几年来，市人口计生工作紧紧围绕统筹城乡发展这个中心，强化公共服务，推进公共管理，落实公共保障，重点在强化流动人口服务管理、完善利益导向政策体系和提高出生人口素质等方面创新突破，统筹推进人口计生工作。     

在统筹城乡发展实践中加快探索统筹解决人口问题新路子

2009年，国务院《关于推进重庆市统筹城乡改革和发展的若干意见》的颁发，标志着重庆市的统筹城乡发展上升到了国家战略。稳定低生育水平，统筹解决人口问题，促进人的全面发展，是新时期人口计生工作的战略任务。积极探索统筹城乡发展战略框架下统筹解决人口问题的新路子，主动将人口计生工作融人统筹城乡发展大背景，促进重庆人口发展和人口计生事业始终沿着健康可持续的轨迹运行，是历史赋予全市人口计生工作者的重大历史使命。     

积极开展人口发展功能区工作 促进人口资源环境协调发展

党的十七大报告提出,到2020年,要基本形成城乡、区域协调互动发展机制和主体功能区布局。科学编制人口发展功能区规划,这既是推进形成全国主体功能区的一项基础性工作,也是统筹解决人口问题的重要举措。搞好人口发展功能区工作，对引导人口合理分布、促进人口与资源环境协调发展，统筹区域、城乡协调发展，进而实现经济社会又好又快发展将产生重大而深远的影响。     

新型城市化背景下统筹城乡社会养老保障制度一体化研究

统筹城乡社会养老保障是推进以统筹城乡为标志的新型城市化的内在要求,城乡社会养老保障的统筹正迈向一体化新阶段。分析统筹城乡社会养老保障一体化困境:大量农民存在、养老保障关系转续难和新农保推广障碍,提出加快小城镇化建设、减少农村人口总量和比例、促进农民向市民转化、创新养老保障关系转续机制和完善新农保政策的建议。     

对成都市统筹城乡发展试验中 探索人口计生事业发展的调研报告

四川省成都市是全国统筹城乡综合配套改革试验区之一。2003年以来，成都市实施统筹城乡发展试验，对人口计生事业进行了统筹城乡的探索，思路逐步清晰，重点逐渐突出，难题逐步破解。     

开放区域的人口分组要素组合预测

随着经济发展和区域开放程度的提高,传统的区域人口预测方法已不合时宜。本文依据人口平衡方程,运用人口分要素组合预测法,阐述了开放区域人口预测的基本方法和步骤,从而为具体的人口预测工作提供思路借鉴。     

坚持科学发展 注重城乡统筹 深入推进人口计生综合改革

重庆市2007年成为全国统筹城乡综合配套改革省级试验区,最大化承接国务院3号文件的政策落地。2008年市政府与国家人口计生委签订《共建统筹解决人口问题试验区合作备忘录》。近几年来,我们针对过去城乡二元结构明显、城乡差距大、区域发展不平衡等实际,坚持科学发展,注重城乡一体,     

统筹解决人口问题 全面提升人口计生工作水平

近年来,山东省威海市按照中央《决定》要求,坚持统筹人口与经济社会协调发展,统筹人口生产和谐发展,统筹城乡人口计生工作同步发展,促进了人口计生工作水平的全面提升。     

人口和计划生育科技人员的信息素质及其培养

信息素质是科技工作者获取科技信息、拓展知识范围、提高自身素质和科研技术服务能力的内在要求。信息素质指信息意识和信息能力,在人口和计划生育科技人员中要开展有效的信息素质教育。     

Reliability and Validity of Japanese Versions of the Flourishing Scale and the Scale of Positive and Negative Experience

The demographic aging of the older population itself has turned out as an issue of great scope, accumulating a large amount of research in recent years. In this context, the prediction or explanation is of much interest. However, little research has studied this prediction when some factors, such as age, gender, and perceived health are controlled, and also few studies have compared these effects in young old and oldest old populations. Thus, the purpose of this study is to test, in a multivariate context, the predictive effects of variables measuring social support, dependence/active perceptions, and generativity on satisfaction with life, while controlling for age, marital status, educational level, gender, and perceived health; examining young old and oldest old similitudes and differences in a little studied population, the Angolan elderly. The sample was formed by 1,003 participants, 737 were young old and 266 were oldest old. To test for the effects, a hierarchical regression was built up, in which age and predictor’s interactions were included. Results provide support for some differences in the pattern of relationships hold by young old and oldest old, with social support emerging as the major predictor of life satisfaction during the old age.     

Induction of labour: Experiences of care and decision-making of women and clinicians

BackgroundThere has been a rise in induction of labour over recent decades. There is some tension in the literature in relation to when induction is warranted and when not, with variability between guidelines and practice. Given these tensions, the importance of shared decision-making between clinicians and women is increasingly highlighted as paramount, but it remains unclear to what extent this occurs in routine care.MethodUsing a scoping review methodology, quantitative and qualitative evidence were considered to answer the research question “What are the views, preferences and experiences of women and clinicians in relation to induction of labour more broadly, and practices of decision-making specifically?” To identify studies, the databases PubMed, Maternity and Infant Care, CINAHL and EMBASE were searched from 2008 to 2018, and reference lists of included studies were examined.Findings20 papers met inclusion criteria, in relation to (a) women’s preferences, experiences and satisfaction with IOL; (b) women’s experience of shared-decision making in relation to induction; (c) interventions that improve shared decision-making and (d) factors that influence decision-making from the perspective of clinicians. Synthesis of the included studies indicates that decision-making in relation to induction of labour is largely informed by medical considerations. Women are not routinely engaged in the decision making process with expectations and preferences largely unmet.ConclusionThere is a need to develop strategies such as decision aids, the redesign of antenatal classes, and clinician communication training to improve the quality of information available to women and their capacity for informed decision-making.     

人口计生宣传教育为“先导”的重心和支点

宣传教育为先导的战略决策,是国家人口计生委党组书记、主任李斌同志2007年年底在河南召开全国农村人口文化建设工作现场会和在宁波市召开全国婚育新风进万家活动经验交流会上提出的重大战略思想。宣传教育为先导战略决策的提出,是在科学发展观指引下尊重思想政治工作、精神文明建设和人口计生工作客观规律,总结正反两方面工作经验教训的必然产物,是今后做好人口计生工作的元点工程。本文主要论述了为什么要先导,先什么、导什么,如何先导三个重大问题。     

Employment and earnings of foreign-born scientists and engineers

Population Research and Policy Review -     

Validity and the Consequences of Test Interpretation and Use

The vast majority of measures have, at their core, a purpose of personal and social change. If test developers and users want measures to have personal and social consequences and impact, then it is critical to consider the consequences and side effects of measurement in the validation process itself. The consequential basis of test interpretation and use, as introduced in Messick’s (Educational measurement, Macmillan, New York, pp. 13–103, 1989) progressive matrix model of unified validity theory, has been misunderstood by many measurement experts, test developers, researchers, and practitioners. The purposes of this paper were to (a) review Messick’s unified view of validity and clarify his consequential basis of test interpretation and use, (b) discuss the kinds of questions evoked by value implications and social consequences and their role in construct validity and score meaning, (c) present a reframing of Messick’s model and a new model of unified validity and validation, (d) bring the concept of multilevel measures under the same validation umbrella as individual differences measures, and (e) offer some thoughts and directions for more explicit consideration of value implications, intended social consequences, and unintended side effects of legitimate test interpretation and use. This paper has implications for the interpretation, use, and validation of both individual differences and multilevel measures in education, psychology, and health contexts.     

失业率、年龄结构与人口迁移率的相关性研究

用定性与定量相结合的方法，从理论及实践两种角度，对影响人口迁移的主要因素进行了分析，指出：人口年龄结构及失业率是人口迁移率大小的决定因素。在此基础上，对影响我国人口迁移的相关性因素进行了分析，并对 21世纪我国人口的迁移做了预测。     

农村劳动力流动的特征、规律与农民增收

农村劳动力流动具有地域特征、就业手段特征、流动性质特征。农村劳动力流动体现着三大规律,即动力规律、流动规模有限规律、推拉“双反”规律。这些特征和规律直接影响着农民收入的增加。推动农村劳动力流动、实现农民增收的途径:一是拓宽农业发展思路;二是加快乡镇企业发展;三是提高城镇化水平;四是鼓励农村外流劳动力回流创业。