“说谎者悖论”、“亦此亦彼悖论”的简明消解——“复合命题”和“矛盾定义”谬误

欧布里德的“说谎者”悖论和赫拉克利特的“亦此亦彼”悖论,两者携手挑战亚里士多得的“不矛盾律”。西方的“真值间隙”、“变值”和“语境敏感”诸方案成功地消解欧氏的一些“弱”例;但是本文的“复合命题”方案试图消解欧氏的“强”例,较彻底地表明:欧氏挑战 (亚氏的 )“不矛盾律”失败。最后,本文指出赫氏的“亦此亦彼”悖论挑战“不矛盾律”成功;但是我们为了“实用”需要而把“亦此亦彼”修订为“可此可彼”,指赫氏犯“矛盾定义”谬误,使赫、亚二氏“平分秋色”!     

Three pseudo-paradoxes in ‘quantum’ decision theory: Apparent effects of observation on probability and utility

In quantum domains, the measurement (or observation) of one of a pair of complementary variables introduces an unavoidable uncertainty in the value of that variable's complement. Such uncertainties are negligible in Newtonian worlds, where observations can be made without appreciably disturbing the observed system. Hence, one would not expect that an observation of a non-quantum probabilistic outcome could affect a probability distribution over subsequently possible states, in a way that would conflict with classical probability calculations. This paper examines three problems in which observations appear to affect the probabilities and expected utilities of subsequent outcomes, in ways which may appear paradoxical. Deeper analysis of these problems reveals that the anomalies arise, not from paradox, but rather from faulty inferences drawn from the observations themselves. Thus the notion of quantum decision theory is disparaged.     

晚清科举中的矛盾现象及分析——谈科举考试的社会功能

1905年,中国历史上延续了1300年的科举制度被废除。一百多年来,对于科举制度的研究中,西方学者以置身事外的身份和历史社会学的眼光看得更为深刻和系统。近年来,重新认识科举的呼声在壮大。本文将科举制度与晚清的社会结构相联系,着重阐述清代社会危机下的科举制度所呈现出的矛盾现象,并以此为分析对象,探讨清代社会结构的变动及科举制度在这种变动之中体现出的社会功能,即在18世纪和19世纪的中国,由人口增长所引发的社会危机中,科举制度的存在成为缓和与转嫁这种危机的关键,发挥了强劲的社会调和的功能,进而使中国社会的稳定得到维持。     

信息技术“生产率悖论”分析

信息与资本、土地一样,是一种重要的资源.信息技术是利用信息资源、发挥信息资源价值的技术和手段.然而,长期以来人们都为信息技术投资究竞有没有效益、效益有多大、究竞该如何测算其效益等这些问题所困惑.本文分析了信息技术"生产率悖论"产生的原因,并力图对这些问题给予解释和回答.     

Reporting cumulative proportion of subjects with an adverse event based on data from multiple studies

Experience has shown us that when data are pooled from multiple studies to create an integrated summary, an analysis based on naïvely‐pooled data is vulnerable to the mischief of Simpson's Paradox. Using the proportions of patients with a target adverse event (AE) as an example, we demonstrate the Paradox's effect on both the comparison and the estimation of the proportions. While meta analytic approaches have been recommended and increasingly used for comparing safety data between treatments, reporting proportions of subjects experiencing a target AE based on data from multiple studies has received little attention. In this paper, we suggest two possible approaches to report these cumulative proportions. In addition, we urge that regulatory guidelines on reporting such proportions be established so that risks can be communicated in a scientifically defensible and balanced manner. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

地方政府行为模式多样性的经济学分析

中国的市场化改革带来了经济领域的分权,导致各地方政府成为具有独立地位的利益主体,分别在特定的约束条件下追求自身的最大化利益。可以将地方政府界定为以地方党委主要领导为首的在地方事务中发挥核心作用的领导层,其在特定的约束条件下追求特定的利益目标。通过地方政府效能分配模型可以说明,不同地方政府由于面临约束条件的差别,产生了利益目标、追求目标方式等方面的差别,因而产生了多样化的地方政府行为模式。     

Hopes and Fears: the Conflicting Effects of Risk Ambiguity

The Ellsberg Paradox documented the aversion to ambiguity in the probability of winning a prize. Using an original sample of 266 business owners and managers facing risks from climate change, this paper documents the presence of departures from rationality in both directions. Both ambiguity-seeking behavior and ambiguity-averse behavior are evident. People exhibit fear effects of ambiguity for small probabilities of suffering a loss and hope effects for large probabilities. Estimates of the crossover point from ambiguity aversion (fear) to ambiguity seeking (hope) place this value between 0.3 and 0.7 for the risk per decade lotteries considered, with empirical estimates indicating a crossover mean risk of about 0.5. Attitudes toward the degree of ambiguity also reverse at the crossover point.     

政府与信用制度建设

新制度经济学把国家作为内生变量来分析国家对经济发展的影响."诺思悖论"揭示了国家作用的双重性.通过对这一理论的阐述和分析,可以得出相关的结论与启示,对于我国建立和完善社会信用制度有着重要的借鉴意义.     

金岳霖的悖论观及其启示

悖论是数学哲学和逻辑哲学中的重要问题,金岳霖研究悖论问题经历了曲折的发展过程。主要思路:一是把悖论归结为一种特殊的自相矛盾,探讨悖论的特征和成因,提出了”暂拟的解决方法”;二是把悖论归结为一种“形式废话”,试图建立一种“范围的逻辑”来消除悖论;三是把悖论归结为思维认识的“不确定性”问题。金岳霖的悖论观点内容丰富,具有重要的学术价值和方法论意义。     

Revisiting the cooperation–competition paradox: A configurational approach to short- and long-term coopetition performance in business networks

Cooperation and competition are often viewed as incompatible, antagonistic forces, thus are operationalized as two extremes on a continuum. However, they can coexist and even enable each other, thus may be operationalized as orthogonal constructs. We address this contradictory phenomenon by developing a more granular view of the cooperation–competition paradox. Building on interdisciplinary research, we develop a three-dimensional model of relational space (fairness–opportunism, sharing–control, and engagement–rivalry), providing a novel tool with which to investigate the paradoxical interplay between cooperation and competition through eight operationalizable configurations. Using fuzzy-set qualitative comparative analysis (fsQCA), we test our model by assessing how different configurations of interfirm relationships influence the short- and long-term success of a sample of 217 firms. Our findings show that only two of the eight possible relational configurations are associated with firm success, one in both the long and short term, and the other in the short term only.