Improved Transferability of Data‐Driven Damage Models Through Sample Selection Bias Correction

Damage models for natural hazards are used for decision making on reducing and transferring risk. The damage estimates from these models depend on many variables and their complex sometimes nonlinear relationships with the damage. In recent years, data‐driven modeling techniques have been used to capture those relationships. The available data to build such models are often limited. Therefore, in practice it is usually necessary to transfer models to a different context. In this article, we show that this implies the samples used to build the model are often not fully representative for the situation where they need to be applied on, which leads to a “sample selection bias.” In this article, we enhance data‐driven damage models by applying methods, not previously applied to damage modeling, to correct for this bias before the machine learning (ML) models are trained. We demonstrate this with case studies on flooding in Europe, and typhoon wind damage in the Philippines. Two sample selection bias correction methods from the ML literature are applied and one of these methods is also adjusted to our problem. These three methods are combined with stochastic generation of synthetic damage data. We demonstrate that for both case studies, the sample selection bias correction techniques reduce model errors, especially for the mean bias error this reduction can be larger than 30%. The novel combination with stochastic data generation seems to enhance these techniques. This shows that sample selection bias correction methods are beneficial for damage model transfer.     

从主权国家的兴衰看权力博弈形态的转型

传统的国际关系理论,无论是现实主义、自由主义、建构主义还是科学行为主义理论,都是把主权国家抽象成一个统一的国际关系行为体。这一行为主体有一致的利益,也自然要有一致的对外政策目标和手段。在20世纪,尤其是在两次世界大战和冷战期间,这一概念抽象是非常准确的。但冷战结束以后,尤其是进入21世纪以后,这一概念抽象逐渐与国际关系的现实相违背。一方面,国家综合实力并不能直接转化为具体领域的竞争优势;另一方面,很多国家,包括超级大国在内,其对外政策的主要阻力可能不是所谓的竞争对手,而是其国内不同的利益集团。这导致传统的国际关系理论,从假设到概念和推理层面,都已经无法解释和预测今天的世界,而权力小博弈理论可以为认识多元复杂互动博弈时代的国际关系提供一个新的解释框架。     

Institutional evolution and abrupt change: Reforming the administration of social assistance in Finland

Historical institutionalist studies have explained institutional change as resulting from critical junctures that interrupt long periods of stability or from endogenous, incremental evolution. Building on these theories, discursive institutionalists have focused on the roles of agency, ideas and discourse as explainers of change. Combining these approaches, this article analyses Finland’s decision in 2014 to transfer the administration of basic social assistance from municipalities to the central government. This study demonstrates that institutional change can be both abrupt and evolutionary. Due to sudden, exceptional political circumstances, the decision in question was made quickly and under pressure, circumventing possible veto players. However, it was possible only because of the incremental, endogenous change that had occurred in the way in which social assistance was administered at the municipal level. It enabled a change in political discourse, which eroded the credibility of the ideational frames that policy actors had previously utilised to reject the centralised model.     

State work and the testing concours of citizenship

Anyone trying to be a citizen has to pass through a set of practices trying to be a state. This paper investigates some of the ways testing practices calibrate citizens, and in doing so, perform “the state.” The paper focuses on three forms of citizenship testing, which it considers exemplary forms of “state work,” and which all, in various ways, concern “migration.” First, the constitution of a “border crossing,” which requires an identity test configured by deceptibility. Second, the Dutch asylum process, in which “being gay” can, in certain cases, be reason for being granted asylum, but where “being gay” is also the outcome of an examination organized by suspicion. And third, the Dutch measurement of immigrants’ “integration,” which is comprised of a testing process in which such factishes as “being a member of society” and “being modern” surface. Citizenship is analyzed in this paper as accrued and (re)configured along a migration trajectory that takes shape as a testing concours, meaning that subjects become citizens along a trajectory of testing practices. In contributing both to work on states and citizenship, and to work on testing, this paper thus puts forward the concept of citizenship testing as state work, where “state work is the term for that kind of labor that most knows itself as comparison, equivalency, and exchange in the social realm” (Harney, 2002, pp. 10–11). Throughout the testing practices discussed here, comparison, equivalency, and exchange figure prominently as the practical achievements of crafting states and citizens.     

关于有限群的可解性

利用极大子群的几乎正规的概念得到了有限群为可解群的若干充要条件．     

线偏振光电矢量与入射面有夹角入射时的偏振态

讨论线偏振光入射 ,其电矢量与入射面有夹角 (该夹角称线偏振光的振动方位角 )时 ,反射光与折射光的偏振态 ,以及在全反射条件下 ,反射光的偏振态和获得圆偏振光的条件     

集中优势发展重庆电子信息产业

在分析重庆市电子信息设备制造业现状、发展的有利与不利因素以及国内外发展态势的基础上对重庆(?)子信息产业的发展提出了九条对策建议。     

改革所有制结构 促进山西产业结构调整

公有制经济比例过大 ,非公有制经济比例过小是山西所有制结构存在的主要问题 ,它对山西产业结构的调整有着一定的制约作用。发展非公有制经济 ,适度压缩国有经济比例 ,是促进山西产业结构调整的重要举措之一。     

国有经济是我国对国民经济实行宏观调控的基本手段

发展市场经济需要国家宏观调控已成为世界各国的共识。把国有经济作为实行宏观调控的基本手段可以说是我国作为发展市场经济时间不长的社会主义国家区别于西方资本主义国家的一个重要特征。通过国有经济进行宏观调控 ,既可以充分发挥国有经济的根本制度优势 ,实现国有经济在社会主义市场经济条件下的主导作用 ,又可以满足我国在目前经济发展阶段的特定宏观调控需要。因此 ,把国有经济作为调控手段 ,通过国有经济的主导作用来实现国家宏观经济目标 ,是符合我国国情的现实选择。     

试析我国国有控股公司的反垄断问题

认为应将国有控股公司纳入反垄断法的规制框架 ,规制的目的是为了控制市场过度集中和行政权的侵入 ,在此基础上 ,可以把国有控股公司区分为行业性国有控股公司和综合性国有控股公司 ,并提出了具体的反垄断法对策。