Improved Transferability of Data‐Driven Damage Models Through Sample Selection Bias Correction

Damage models for natural hazards are used for decision making on reducing and transferring risk. The damage estimates from these models depend on many variables and their complex sometimes nonlinear relationships with the damage. In recent years, data‐driven modeling techniques have been used to capture those relationships. The available data to build such models are often limited. Therefore, in practice it is usually necessary to transfer models to a different context. In this article, we show that this implies the samples used to build the model are often not fully representative for the situation where they need to be applied on, which leads to a “sample selection bias.” In this article, we enhance data‐driven damage models by applying methods, not previously applied to damage modeling, to correct for this bias before the machine learning (ML) models are trained. We demonstrate this with case studies on flooding in Europe, and typhoon wind damage in the Philippines. Two sample selection bias correction methods from the ML literature are applied and one of these methods is also adjusted to our problem. These three methods are combined with stochastic generation of synthetic damage data. We demonstrate that for both case studies, the sample selection bias correction techniques reduce model errors, especially for the mean bias error this reduction can be larger than 30%. The novel combination with stochastic data generation seems to enhance these techniques. This shows that sample selection bias correction methods are beneficial for damage model transfer.     

Finding common ground: how superdiversity is unsettling social work education

For social work education in the Netherlands, the rapid transition towards superdiversity means that its capacity to adapt to this new reality and to adjust to diverse students’ backgrounds is fiercely challenged. The key aim of this article is to discuss how social work educators are dealing with the unsettling challenges of increasing diversity, based on the research outcomes of an explorative study amongst Turkish–Dutch and Moroccan–Dutch female professionals. Two different groups of educators were asked to comment on the outcomes of this study. One of the dilemmas for educators is to determine what can be considered supportive and inclusive and as reducing inequality in education. The authors used two key theoretical concepts, ‘superdiversity’ and ‘the capability approach’. These theoretical perspectives were used to deconstruct the rather massive concepts of diversity and social justice, by emphasising contextual approaches. Both perspectives stress the urgent need to involve students as ‘active agents of change’, by building a social work community to stimulate and facilitate an on-going dialogue. To successfully fulfil a pivotal role in the upward mobility or emancipation of ethnic minority students, social work education needs to be adjusted to accommodate diverse student groups.     

Controlling type 1 error rate for sequential,bioequivalence studies with crossover designs

Sample size reestimation in a crossover, bioequivalence study can be a useful adaptive design tool, particularly when the intrasubject variability of the drug formulation under investigation is not well understood. When sample size reestimation is done based on an interim estimate of the intrasubject variability and bioequivalence is tested using the pooled estimate of intrasubject variability, type 1 error inflation will occur. Type 1 error inflation is caused by the pooled estimate being a biased estimator of the intrasubject variability. The type 1 error inflation and bias of the pooled estimator of variability are well characterized in the setting of a two‐arm, parallel study. The purpose of this work is to extend this characterization to the setting of a crossover, bioequivalence study with sample size reestimation and to propose an estimator of the intrasubject variability that will prevent type 1 error inflation.     

Brazil’s non-indifference: a case for a feminist diplomatic agenda or geopolitics as usual?

At the beginning of the twenty-first century, Brazil took advantage of its economically and politically privileged position to challenge global normative structures. In 2004, the concept of “non-indifference” was integrated into the Brazilian vocabulary of foreign policy, justifying and legitimating the country’s acceptance of the invitation to command the United Nations Stabilization Mission in Haiti (MINUSTAH). On the one hand, non-indifference can be read as a discursive maneuver that enabled Brazil to accommodate its non-interventionist agenda to an old geopolitical game, given the pressure imposed upon “global players” to respond effectively and assertively to threats to international peace and security. On the other hand, the “Brazilian way” could also be seen as an alternative to a highly masculinized geopolitical approach to international security. This paper explores possible limitations, tensions and/or opportunities that emerge from the encounter between a feminist diplomatic agenda and a masculinizing ordering of the international space. It does so by contrasting Brazil’s ambition for a permanent seat on the United Nations Security Council (UNSC), the club of powerful states, with Brazil’s diplomatic and military performance during MINUSTAH, widely evaluated as a success due to characteristics such as solidarity, generosity, flexibility and the “warm conviviality” of Brazilian culture.     

Radical Distrust: Are Economic Policy Attitudes Tempered by Social Trust?

Social Indicators Research - Debates about the appropriate role of markets and governments are often shaped by sharply contrasting opinions. Based on individual data from the World Values Survey...     

The Welfare State as Safety Net in Migration Preferences: Empirical Evidence from an Experiment Among Dutch Master Students

Population Research and Policy Review - The welfare state can be perceived as a safety net which helps individuals adjust to situations of risk or transition. Starting from this idea of the welfare...     

The ‘Dark Side’ of Social Capital: A Cross-National Examination of the Relationship Between Social Capital and Violence in Africa

Social Indicators Research - Research and policy circles often emphasize the importance of social capital in achieving social transformation and economic development. There is also, however,...     

Juggling Between Parental and School Expectations: The Development of Domain‐Specific Acculturation Orientations in Early Adolescence

We examined how perceived acculturation expectations from parents and school, and ethnic discrimination predicted early adolescents’ heritage and mainstream acculturation orientations at home (private domain) and in school (public domain) one year later. We surveyed 263 early adolescents of immigrant background in Germany (M_age = 10.44 years, 60% female). Multigroup path analyses revealed that perceived acculturation expectations and ethnic discrimination were more strongly related to adolescents’ private than public acculturation orientations. Parental heritage expectations were the strongest predictor of adolescents’ acculturation orientations. Boys were more susceptible than girls to ethnic discrimination and acculturation expectations in school, which affected their private and public acculturation orientations. Results highlight the importance of integrating domain‐specific and gendered experiences when analyzing adolescents’ acculturative development.     

Size does matter: Passive sampling in urban parks of a regional bat assemblage

Urban Ecosystems - We studied the occurrence of bats in urban parks in the city of Madrid (Spain), and the resulting patterns were compared with bat occurrence in the surrounding region. In this...