Accelerating inference for diffusions observed with measurement error and large sample sizes using approximate Bayesian computation

In recent years, dynamical modelling has been provided with a range of breakthrough methods to perform exact Bayesian inference. However, it is often computationally unfeasible to apply exact statistical methodologies in the context of large data sets and complex models. This paper considers a nonlinear stochastic differential equation model observed with correlated measurement errors and an application to protein folding modelling. An approximate Bayesian computation (ABC)-MCMC algorithm is suggested to allow inference for model parameters within reasonable time constraints. The ABC algorithm uses simulations of ‘subsamples’ from the assumed data-generating model as well as a so-called ‘early-rejection’ strategy to speed up computations in the ABC-MCMC sampler. Using a considerate amount of subsamples does not seem to degrade the quality of the inferential results for the considered applications. A simulation study is conducted to compare our strategy with exact Bayesian inference, the latter resulting two orders of magnitude slower than ABC-MCMC for the considered set-up. Finally, the ABC algorithm is applied to a large size protein data. The suggested methodology is fairly general and not limited to the exemplified model and data.     

时空的突破:文化折叠现象中的鲁迅

20世纪初以来,中西文化的交流碰撞,造就了中国现代文化意识多层次的沉积地带,产生了多种文化因素交融的折叠现象,造就了新的语境和文化态势,鲁迅的思想就体现了一种多元化文化意识因素相融合的结果,突破了传统文化的界线,为中国文化及其文学的发展拓展了空间。     

“学术”与“革命”的交融——李何林现代文学研究述略

作为中国现代文学学科开创者之一，李何林的学术成就主要体现在左翼文艺研究和鲁迅研究两个方面。他的《中国文艺论战》、《近二十年中国文艺思潮论》仍是当今学界现代文艺思潮研究不可忽略的出发点；他的鲁迅研究与“新民主主义”的文学史观结合，堪称建国后鲁学“正统派”的代表。对李何林而言，革命经历影响学术选择，学术方法、理路体现革命信仰和斗争思维．我们要从“革命”与“学术”的交融来理解其现代文学研究。     

世纪之交的拉美左派评析

世纪之交,拉美左派运动正在走向一个新的发展阶段,这不仅有利于拉美地区政治经济的发展,而且对整个国际关系会产生深远的影响。因此,要在新的时代背景下,从历史的角度,客观地认识拉美左翼的崛起和它进一步发展的必然性。     

20世纪30年代北平大学中的左翼思潮

20世纪30年代左翼思潮在大学生中相当流行,不过由于学校立场、师生关系等各种因素,其在不同学校表现的强度和形式亦有所不同。本文以大学较为集中的北平为对象,考察左翼思潮在各校中的分布情况,认为在左翼思潮兴盛的学校,学生占据着主导地位,这一点亦有助于我们理解左翼学生从事文化运动时所采取的策略。     

The Resistible Rise of Sarah Palin: Continuity and Paradox in the American Right Wing1

Sarah Palin clearly holds a powerful appeal for a right‐wing constituency although even her most fervent followers may doubt that she is electable. This article examines the basis of her appeal. We argue that it can be summed up as an appeal to American authenticity, which consists of several elements: the valorization of small town ordinary life takes second place to faith and religious commitment; an equal faith in American exceptionality implies that Americans should never be apologetic about their country and never waver in their belief in its special greatness; the final elements are a foundational libertarian creed and a peculiar brand of right‐wing populism. However, for all her affinities with classical right‐wing sentiment, Sarah Palin, we argue, brings something new to the mix: a genuinely maverick right‐wing feminism. That is why in the end, we call the Palin phenomenon a paradoxical one.     

左翼知识分子与延安文学体制建构

左翼知识分子是延安时期文学艺术活动的主要发起者、组织者、参与者与建构者。1936年底,中日民族矛盾进一步加剧,受中国共产党坚决抗日的政治主张的召唤,大批进步文人与左翼作家奔赴延安革命解放区。初来延安的左翼知识分子按照五四新文艺路径进行文学创作,尖锐批判和深刻揭露解放区存在的不良现象,引起党内干部和战士的极端不满,知识分子与工农干部矛盾日益突出。经过整风、审干、抢救运动,左翼知识分子认识到自己的不足和延安战时环境的特殊性,积极转变立场,主动改造自己,深入群众生活,创作出老百姓喜闻乐见的文艺精品,把延安文艺运动推向高潮。     

金九与韩国反日独立运动左翼派别的关系

20世纪前半叶,韩国被日寇侵占后,韩国反日独立运动大多是在中国境内进行的。金九先生是韩国反日独立运动最杰出的领导人。本文分析了金九与韩国反日独立运动左翼派别的关系,以对这段鲜为人知的历史有更深刻的认识。     

张载谈“鬼”论“神”

张载立足于唯物主义气本论,对“鬼神”问题进行了研究,指出“鬼神”是“二气之良能”。“神”是气之伸,气聚为物,自无而有,彰显气之神妙不测的变化性能;“鬼”是气之屈,气散物溃,自有而无,返回气的本然状态,体现气之归宿。“鬼神”就是阴阳二气的往来屈伸。“神奸物怪”见怪不怪,只要把它置于理性的法庭之上进行审判,就能不攻白破。     

A male fitness advantage to wing reduction in the oriental chinch bug,Cavelerius saccharivorus okajima (heteroptera: Lygaeidae)

Summary A male fitness advantage to wing reduction was investigated for the oriental chinch bug,Cavelerius saccharivorus, which is wing dimorphic. Field surveys for the frequency of matings between wing morphs showed that the mating probability was much higher in brachypterous males than in macropterous males in the early breeding season. Brachypterous males copulated with not only brachypterous females but also macropterous females in this season. This led to a considerable rate (30%) of insemination of macropterous females just before emigration even in the early breeding season. A rearing experiment for the pre-reproductive period of females revealed that females mated with brachypterous males copulated and oviposited earlier than females mated with macropterous males. These results indicate that there is a fitness advantage to wing reduction in the males ofC. saccharivorus in terms of the earlier sexual maturation.