牛汉：新诗史研究的重要课题

进入新时期以来,在诗歌研究领域中一股牛汉研究热正在形成。这是由于牛汉是我们这个时代不可多得的人品与诗品达到完美统一的诗人,是由于牛汉有一种大气魄,他的刚正不阿与勇于抗争为中国树立了一种精神榜样,还由于他始终葆有一颗童心,始终与青年诗人心灵相通。在新的世纪里,牛汉将会引起越来越多的学者的注意,牛汉研究将是新诗史研究的一个重要课题。     

The current state of the labor queue: National and regional Evidence

We employ vector autoregressive techniques to determine the current state of the labor queue. Unemployment rate differentials have narrowed in recent years, potentially due to a change in the queue ordering, though a tight labor market and a stable queue would yield similar results. We find no evidence that the queue ordering has changed, which brings into question the resiliency of gains made by minority groups. We employ the same techniques to reveal the state of the queue across geographic regions and find that substantial differences exist across regions, implying variation in the relative labor force status of demographic groups.     

论休闲与社会进步

在物质文明飞速发展的今天,高度文明的精神生活已成为人们追求的目标。人逐渐学会一种使人真正成为人的生活方式,这便是休闲。休闲是人类文明发展和“以人为本”的体现,也是社会进步的需要。     

对先进教育理念内涵分析及先导作用的理性思考

本文从理论上分析先进教育理念的内涵、特征以及形成过程,先进教育理念的先导作用.提出了如何运用先进教育理念的导向作用指导教育、教学活动,全面推进教学改革,提高教学质量和办学水平,为本科教学的发展提供动力和保障.     

试论清朝初期对侗族地区土司的管理

清朝初期,清政府十分重视对侗族地区土司的管理。广加招徕,准予承袭,制定并施行一系列严密的管理措施。这对于稳定和巩固西南边疆,起了重要的作用。随着侗族地区土司制度的腐朽,其弊端日渐显露,为雍正时期清政府于此进行改土归流提供了条件。     

新形势下蔬菜学创新型、创业型人才的培养

蔬菜业已经成为当今我国发展最快最活跃的产业之一.论文首次提出了新形势下蔬菜学创新型、创业型人才培养的命题,分析了新形势下蔬菜学创新型、创业型人才培养的历史背景、现状及其必要性,总结了蔬菜学创新型、创业型人才的基本特征,在明确培养目标、实施分层培养、强化实践教学、改进教学方法、提倡教师"导创"、突显教师风范等6个方面论述了蔬菜学创新型、创业型人才培养的着力点,描绘了蔬菜学创新型、创业型人才培养的"三四五实践教学体系"框架图.     

Bayesian analysis of a marked point process: Application in seismic hazard assessment

Point processes are the stochastic models most suitable for describing physical phenomena that appear at irregularly spaced times, such as the earthquakes. These processes are uniquely characterized by their conditional intensity, that is, by the probability that an event will occur in the infinitesimal interval (t, t+Δt), given the history of the process up tot. The seismic phenomenon displays different behaviours on different time and size scales; in particular, the occurrence of destructive shocks over some centuries in a seismogenic region may be explained by the elastic rebound theory. This theory has inspired the so-called stress release models: their conditional intensity translates the idea that an earthquake produces a sudden decrease in the amount of strain accumulated gradually over time along a fault, and the subsequent event occurs when the stress exceeds the strength of the medium. This study has a double objective: the formulation of these models in the Bayesian framework, and the assignment to each event of a mark, that is its magnitude, modelled through a distribution that depends at timet on the stress level accumulated up to that instant. The resulting parameter space is constrained and dependent on the data, complicating Bayesian computation and analysis. We have resorted to Monte Carlo methods to solve these problems.     

Population constraints on pooled surveys in demographic hazard modeling

In non-experimental research, data on the same population process may be collected simultaneously by more than one instrument. For example, in the present application, two sample surveys and a population birth registration system all collect observations on first births by age and year, while the two surveys additionally collect information on women’s education. To make maximum use of the three data sources, the survey data are pooled and the population data introduced as constraints in a logistic regression equation. Reductions in standard errors about the age and birth-cohort parameters of the regression equation in the order of three-quarters are obtained by introducing the population data as constraints. A halving of the standard errors about the education parameters is achieved by pooling observations from the larger survey dataset with those from the smaller survey. The percentage reduction in the standard errors through imposing population constraints is independent of the total survey sample size.