论邓小平战略思想的科学体系

邓小平战略思想体系是以当代中国和世界为战略背景,以中国和整个人类的和平与发展为主旨的大战略思想体系。这一战略思想科学体系的框架,大体包括邓小平的以社会主义现代化建设为中心的国家发展战略思想、谋求和平与发展的国际战略思想和创造稳定的内外环境的国家安全战略思想三大组成部分。     

Mehrperiodige Bewertung mit dem Tax-CAPM und Kapitalkostenkonzept

Zusammenfassung  Aus der Empfehlung des IDW, die für die Unternehmensbewertung mittels der DCF-Verfahren erforderlichen Kapitalkosten aus dem einperiodigen Tax-CAPM abzuleiten, ergibt sich die Notwendigkeit, dieses Modell mehrperiodig anzuwenden. Sowohl die hierzu erforderlichen Pr?missen als auch die Struktur der aus der mehrperiodigen Anwendung resultierenden Bewertungsgleichungen sind bislang ungekl?rt. Der vorliegende Beitrag spezifiziert ein mehrperiodiges Tax-CAPM, welches zur Bewertung mehrperiodiger stochastischer Cash-Flows bei differenzierter Besteuerung von Zinsen, Dividenden und Wert?nderungen eingesetzt werden kann. Die aus der Anwendung dieses Modells resultierenden Bewertungsgleichungen erm?glichen die Abbildung sowohl des Risikos als auch der Besteuerung einer durch den Kapitalmarkt bestimmten Alternativanlage mittels deterministischer Diskontierungsfaktoren, welche die Kapitalkosten der zu bewertenden Cash-Flows darstellen. Unter den restriktiven Pr?missen des vorliegenden Modells ist es demnach m?glich, die Einkommensbesteuerung der Kapitalgeber konsistent in die DCF-Verfahren zu integrieren. Der Autor dankt zwei anonymen Gutachtern der ZfB für wertvolle Hinweise und Verbesserungsvorschl?ge.     

网络经济时代企业物流管理的变革

随着网络经济的迅速发展,物流管理不仅成为企业新的利润增长点,也是增强企业竞争力的重要因素。本文首先论述了网络经济的主要特征,然后分析了网络经济给企业管理带来的影响和物流管理在企业发展中的重要地位,最后提出了企业加强物流管理的主要途径。      

西部地区人地关系与西部大开发

西部地区是一个特殊的人地关系地域系统,正确认识西部地区人地关系中存在的突出矛盾十分必要.加快基础设施和生态环境建设,大力发展科技教育,积极调整产业结构,是因地制宜实施西部大开发战略的重要举措.     

Bayesian adaptive lasso with variational Bayes for variable selection in high-dimensional generalized linear mixed models

This article describes a full Bayesian treatment for simultaneous fixed-effect selection and parameter estimation in high-dimensional generalized linear mixed models. The approach consists of using a Bayesian adaptive Lasso penalty for signal-level adaptive shrinkage and a fast Variational Bayes scheme for estimating the posterior mode of the coefficients. The proposed approach offers several advantages over the existing methods, for example, the adaptive shrinkage parameters are automatically incorporated, no Laplace approximation step is required to integrate out the random effects. The performance of our approach is illustrated on several simulated and real data examples. The algorithm is implemented in the R package glmmvb and is made available online.     

A second-order iterated smoothing algorithm

Simulation-based inference for partially observed stochastic dynamic models is currently receiving much attention due to the fact that direct computation of the likelihood is not possible in many practical situations. Iterated filtering methodologies enable maximization of the likelihood function using simulation-based sequential Monte Carlo filters. Doucet et al. (2013) developed an approximation for the first and second derivatives of the log likelihood via simulation-based sequential Monte Carlo smoothing and proved that the approximation has some attractive theoretical properties. We investigated an iterated smoothing algorithm carrying out likelihood maximization using these derivative approximations. Further, we developed a new iterated smoothing algorithm, using a modification of these derivative estimates, for which we establish both theoretical results and effective practical performance. On benchmark computational challenges, this method beat the first-order iterated filtering algorithm. The method’s performance was comparable to a recently developed iterated filtering algorithm based on an iterated Bayes map. Our iterated smoothing algorithm and its theoretical justification provide new directions for future developments in simulation-based inference for latent variable models such as partially observed Markov process models.     

Techniques of Death: Buddhist Practice,Femininity and Self-Cultivation at the Last Stage of Life in Vietnam

This article explores how death is conceptualised by elderly lay Buddhist women in H? Chí Minh City (Vietnam). It explores the traits of a ‘good death’ which elderly laywomen wish to experience, and their dedicated practice of Buddhism to prepare themselves for a peaceful end stage of life. This article contends that, in fact, women’s perceptions of death speak to their desires to live a life with dignity and retain their full personhood and nurturing femininity which they have embodied throughout their adult lives even until their last moments. They pursue devotional practices to train their body and mind in order to prepare themselves for the critical moment of dying, believing that these self-cultivating practices will enable them to transcend physical suffering and mental confusion, and immediately move on to the next, better life.     

工作经验一定有助于创业过程吗:基于工作内嵌入的分析

国内外大量研究发现,工作经验对创业过程起着重要的促进作用。但是以往研究尚无法解释为什么有工作经历的创业者创业的成功率存在巨大差异的问题。基于此,本文借鉴人力资源管理领域的工作嵌入模型,运用美国创业动态跟踪研究(Panel Study of Entrepreneurial Dynamics I,简称PSEDI)的调查数据,运用多元回归分析方法对创业者先前的工作内嵌入对创业活动的集中性和创业周期长短的影响进行了实证分析,发现创业者的先前工作经验可能导致创业活动分散和创业活动周期延长。该结论更为全面地解释了工作经验对创业过程的影响机理,同时也有助于启发有创业打算和创业潜力的个体合理地利用以往的工作经验,提高创业活动的成功率。     

熔融反应合成法及生产实施

介绍了用熔融反应合成法以浓盐酸、二甲胺水溶液和双氰胺为原料合成盐酸二甲双胍的反应原理、工艺流程、具体生产操作及如何解决熔融反应过程中固体物料对搅拌阻力大、反应剧烈放热温度难以控制等问题,从而将熔融反应合成法应用于工业化生产。