流迁人口对广东省人口发展的替代效应

所谓替代迁移是指迁移人口对长期处于更替生育水平以下的人口,因人口自然减少而产生的替代效用。广东省不但是全国人口流动和迁移最活跃的省份,而且人口总和生育率已连续10年低于更替水平,进入低生育水平时期。本文实证分析广东省在无流动人口、保持峰值人口、维持峰值劳动年龄人口和潜在供养比最大值等条件下,流迁人口对总人口规模和结构的替代效应,认为适度替代流迁人口是解决长期维持低生育水平地区所产生的人口问题的有效途径。     

村级治理中的精英分析

村庄精英在村落场域的权力结构中 ,居于承上启下的中介地位。对村庄精英的分析是村庄权力结构分析的切入点。村庄精英分为掌握村庄正式权力资源的体制内精英和掌握传统资源等其它资源的体制外精英     

Divorce in Hong Kong SAR, 1999–2011: A Review of 1,208 Family Court Cases

Divorce has increased dramatically in Hong Kong and elsewhere in Asia since the 2000s, whereas the West has seen a decline, suggesting there are factors specific to Hong Kong relating to divorce. This study examined a random sample of 1,208 divorce cases from the Hong Kong Family Court between 1999 and 2011. These marriages lasted 11 to 12 years on average, and most divorces occurred between the 5th and 7th years of marriage. Couples with a divorce history had a higher divorce risk, regardless of whether they had children, and predivorce marriage duration was positively associated with the number of children. The grounds cited for divorce indicate a shift toward no-fault divorce. Most petitioners were women, and mothers were generally granted child custody. Cross-border marriages and remarriages accounted for about one third of divorces, reflecting the impacts of differing sociocultural backgrounds and divorce history. The study’s implications for policymaking and service provision are discussed.     

Revisiting calendar effects in Malaysian finance stocks market: Evidence from threshold GARCH (TGARCH) model

Recent research reveals that calendar effects have largely disappeared from stock markets. However, majority of the past studies focus on stock markets at the aggregate level but do not provide firm-level evidence. Therefore, this study investigates day-of-the-week and month-of-the-year effects in Malaysian finance stocks market for the period 1/1/1997–31/12/2014. The empirical results from threshold GARCH (TGARCH) model suggest that certain daily and monthly seasonality effects are prevalent along with asymmetric news effect. The findings of study indicate inefficiency in the weak-form sense, implying that it is possible for investors to obtain the observed abnormal returns by using timing strategies.     

“文明交往论”与当代中国“外交哲学”构建刍议

当代中国外交哲学的构建是长期困扰学术界的理论问题,本文认为任何外交哲学都必须回答如下三个基本问题：（1）主权国家对于其所依存世界的＂总的看法＂;（2）主权国家对其屹立于世界民族之林的＂自我＂的＂总的看法＂;（3）主权国家对其与当代世界究竟如何互动的＂总的看法＂。＂文明交往论＂作为坚持唯物史观基础上的理论创新成果蕴含着丰富的外交思想,它所包含的＂和谐世界论＂、＂文明自觉论＂、＂交往文明论＂等分析范畴正好对应了上述问题,对我国新时期外交哲学的理论构建具有重要的学术价值和启示意义。     

Is cash allowance a way to ease child care burden? Views of carers in Hong Kong

Caring for the carers is not only a policy challenge for the government but also a global concern to achieve gender equality by restructuring welfare for care. Paying informal carers is one of the measures that address their needs, which is being practiced in Western countries for more than 10 years now. Financial support for care does not only value the contribution of carers but also compensate for the loss of carers caused by unpaid care duties. However, cash for care is a complex issue because it is located within a number of different policy domains that may be considered controversial. This study discusses the views of carers on cash allowance and identifies issues affecting the support provided to the informal care system in Hong Kong. The discussion is based on the findings from the focus group interviews with 11 groups of carers with different socioeconomic backgrounds.     

Statistical Discrimination Analysis Using the Maximum Function

The maximum of k functions defined on R ⁿ , n ≥ 1, by f _max (x) = max{f ₁ (x),…, f _k (x)}, ? x ? R ⁿ , can have important roles in Statistics, particularly in Classification. Through its relation with the Bayes error, which is the reference error in classification, it can serve to compute numerical bounds for errors in other classification schemes. It can also serve to define the joint L¹-distance between more than two densities, which, in turn, will serve as a useful tool in Classification and Cluster Analyses. It has a vast potential application in digital image processing too. Finally, its versatile role can be seen in several numerical examples, related to the analysis of Fisher's classical iris data in multidimensional spaces.     

Percentile bounds and tolerance limits for the birnbaum-saunders distribution

In this paper, a confidence interval for the lOOpth percentile of the Birnbaum-Saunders distribution is constructed. Conservative two-sided tolerance limits are then obtained from the confidence limits. These results are useful for reliability evaluation when using the Birnbaum-Saunders model. A simple scheme for generating Birnbaum-Saunders random variates is derived. This is used for a simulation study on investigating the effectiveness of the proposed confidence interval in terms of its coverage probability.