箪食瓢饮:河北涉县旱作梯田系统的饮食体系

作为中国重要农业文化遗产,河北涉县旱作梯田系统是当地居民积累生活经验、寻找生存之道,最终实现农业永续发展的智慧结晶。 本文以其核心区域王金庄村居民的日常饮食入手,意在描述梯田社会中食物从破土而出到送入口中的全过程,呈现当地在自然与文化共同作用下所形成的饮食结构和饮食习惯。 这种与自然相适应的文化模式以及由此而生的生态观念,形成了以藏粮于地、储粮于仓、节粮于口为主要内容的饮食体系,影响着当地人的行为选择,也发挥了重要的生态调节功能。     

基于全球商品流量表的中国大陆贸易影响力测算

文章利用国际货币基金组织(IMF)公布的各国(地区)进出口数据,编制了2015年全球商品流量表(G-CFM),描绘了国家(地区)间商品贸易网络关系,采用网络分析的方法对全球商品贸易格局进行了分析,发现了在全球商品贸易中以美、中、德为中心,世界各国紧密交织的网络特征,最后用投入产出方法分析了中国大陆的贸易影响力,测算了中国大陆进出口贸易对不同国家(地区)以及对全球的影响.     

A method for choosing the smoothing parameter in a semi-parametric model for detecting change-points in blood flow

In a smoothing spline model with unknown change-points, the choice of the smoothing parameter strongly influences the estimation of the change-point locations and the function at the change-points. In a tumor biology example, where change-points in blood flow in response to treatment were of interest, choosing the smoothing parameter based on minimizing generalized cross-validation (GCV) gave unsatisfactory estimates of the change-points. We propose a new method, aGCV, that re-weights the residual sum of squares and generalized degrees of freedom terms from GCV. The weight is chosen to maximize the decrease in the generalized degrees of freedom as a function of the weight value, while simultaneously minimizing aGCV as a function of the smoothing parameter and the change-points. Compared with GCV, simulation studies suggest that the aGCV method yields improved estimates of the change-point and the value of the function at the change-point.     

禁锢中的变迁:民国时期新疆妇女地位变迁

在很长的历史时期内,受地区经济文化发展水平及民族宗教的影响,新疆妇女社会地位低下,表现出"禁锢"的特征。民国时期,新疆在地缘政治中的重要地位日益凸显,各方势力在此角逐。他们治理新疆期间,多引入西方新思想、新观念进行一系列政治经济、文化教育和社会改革,新疆妇女的社会地位由此发生了重要变化。女子教育的兴起促使先进女性走出家庭的禁锢,进入学校学习知识,接受新思想的洗礼。妇女协会成立后,开始组织妇女参与社会活动,特别是抗日战争兴起后,协会广泛发起抗日教育宣传和募捐,使许多家庭妇女建立起"国家"的概念,主动承担起"国民"的责任与义务。     

The nested joint clustering via Dirichlet process mixture model

This article focuses on the clustering problem based on Dirichlet process (DP) mixtures. To model both time invariant and temporal patterns, different from other existing clustering methods, the proposed semi-parametric model is flexible in that both the common and unique patterns are taken into account simultaneously. Furthermore, by jointly clustering subjects and the associated variables, the intrinsic complex shared patterns among subjects and among variables are expected to be captured. The number of clusters and cluster assignments are directly inferred with the use of DP. Simulation studies illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed method. An application to wheal size data is discussed with an aim of identifying novel temporal patterns among allergens within subject clusters.     

一类与洛伦兹曲线相关的不平等测度指数

文章对一类与洛伦茨曲线相关的不平等测度指数进行了较为系统的回顾与探讨,这些指数既包括基尼系数和Schutz指数等传统的不平等测度指数,也包括Bonferroni指数、De Vergottni指数和Zenga指数等国际上应用广泛但国内少见的不平等指数,并揭示了这些指数间的相互关联,总结了这些指数所满足的性质特征.     

西方平等理论从古典自然法学到新自然法学的嬗变

平等是一个非常复杂和抽象的范畴,西方法学对平等理论的热爱和追逐从未停止过,从古典自然法学追求的抽象的平等的政治理想,到新自然法学对平等的制度设计的现实关怀,平等理论随着自然法学的发展实现了其自身的嬗变,这种改变也是时代的要求、历史的必然。     

How do I get my way? A meta-analytic review of research on influence tactics

Despite considerable research investigating the role of influence tactics on work-related outcomes in organizations, consensus on the effectiveness of influence tactics has been elusive. Specifically, there is a lack of integration concerning the relationships between proactive influence tactics and their outcomes. We investigate the effectiveness of 11 influence tactics from a comprehensive perspective using meta-analytic techniques. In particular, the current study focuses on relationships between each of the 11 influence tactics (i.e., rational persuasion, exchange, inspirational appeal, legitimating, apprising, pressure, collaboration, ingratiation, consultation, personal appeals, and coalition) and task- and relations-oriented outcomes. In addition, we investigate the moderating effects of the direction of influence tactics, measurement of influence tactics, singular influence tactic (versus use of a combination of influence tactics), independence of data sources, and study setting involved in the study. Regardless of task- and relations-oriented outcomes, based on 49 independent samples (N = 8987), our results show positive relationships between outcomes and rational persuasion, inspirational appeal, apprising, collaboration, ingratiation, consultation, and a negative relationship between pressure and outcomes. Rational persuasion is the only tactic which held stable positive relationships with both categories of outcomes regardless of moderating factors. Implications and directions for future research in the area of influence tactics are discussed.     

爱的存在——蒂利希终极关怀思想管窥

爱不仅是情感的维度,更具有存在的意义。作为终极关怀的一部分,爱与终极关怀休戚相关,爱的沉沦正是终极关怀的困境所在,而爱的诠释则是终极关怀的表达。爱的存在深入生命的深层,并通过象征、悖论以及信仰的方式呈现出来,爱的呈现既是生命的展开,也是终极关怀的践行。     

A robust and efficient estimation method for nonparametric models with jump points

Nonparametric models with jump points have been considered by many researchers. However, most existing methods based on least squares or likelihood are sensitive when there are outliers or the error distribution is heavy tailed. In this article, a local piecewise-modal method is proposed to estimate the regression function with jump points in nonparametric models, and a piecewise-modal EM algorithm is introduced to estimate the proposed estimator. Under some regular conditions, the large-sample theory is established for the proposed estimators. Several simulations are presented to evaluate the performances of the proposed method, which shows that the proposed estimator is more efficient than the local piecewise-polynomial regression estimator in the presence of outliers or heavy tail error distribution. What is more, the proposed procedure is asymptotically equivalent to the local piecewise-polynomial regression estimator under the assumption that the error distribution is a Gaussian distribution. The proposed method is further illustrated via the sea-level pressures.