Partial covariate adjusted regression

Covariate adjusted regression (CAR) is a recently proposed adjustment method for regression analysis where both the response and predictors are not directly observed [?entürk, D., Müller, H.G., 2005. Covariate adjusted regression. Biometrika 92, 75–89]. The available data have been distorted by unknown functions of an observable confounding covariate. CAR provides consistent estimators for the coefficients of the regression between the variables of interest, adjusted for the confounder. We develop a broader class of partial covariate adjusted regression (PCAR) models to accommodate both distorted and undistorted (adjusted/unadjusted) predictors. The PCAR model allows for unadjusted predictors, such as age, gender and demographic variables, which are common in the analysis of biomedical and epidemiological data. The available estimation and inference procedures for CAR are shown to be invalid for the proposed PCAR model. We propose new estimators and develop new inference tools for the more general PCAR setting. In particular, we establish the asymptotic normality of the proposed estimators and propose consistent estimators of their asymptotic variances. Finite sample properties of the proposed estimators are investigated using simulation studies and the method is also illustrated with a Pima Indians diabetes data set.     

Nonverbal Social Sensing in Action: Unobtrusive Recording and Extracting of Nonverbal Behavior in Social Interactions Illustrated with a Research Example

Nonverbal behavior coding is typically conducted by “hand”. To remedy this time and resource intensive undertaking, we illustrate how nonverbal social sensing, defined as the automated recording and extracting of nonverbal behavior via ubiquitous social sensing platforms, can be achieved. More precisely, we show how and what kind of nonverbal cues can be extracted and to what extent automated extracted nonverbal cues can be validly obtained with an illustrative research example. In a job interview, the applicant’s vocal and visual nonverbal immediacy behavior was automatically sensed and extracted. Results show that the applicant’s nonverbal behavior can be validly extracted. Moreover, both visual and vocal applicant nonverbal behavior predict recruiter hiring decision, which is in line with previous findings on manually coded applicant nonverbal behavior. Finally, applicant average turn duration, tempo variation, and gazing best predict recruiter hiring decision. Results and implications of such a nonverbal social sensing for future research are discussed.     

First hitting time of integral diffusions and applications

We study the first hitting time of integral functionals of time-homogeneous diffusions, and characterize their Laplace transforms through a stochastic time change. We obtain explicit expressions of the Laplace transforms for the geometric Brownian motion (GBM) and the mean-reverting GBM process. We also introduce a novel probability identity based on an independent exponential randomization and obtain explicit Laplace transforms of the price of arithmetic Asian options and other derivative prices that non-linearly depend on the integral diffusions. Numerical examples are given to demonstrate the accuracy and efficiency of the proposed method.     

Inferring an Augmented Bayesian Network to Confront a Complex Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment Model with Durability Studies: Application to Bacillus Cereus on a Courgette Purée Production Chain

The Monte Carlo (MC) simulation approach is traditionally used in food safety risk assessment to study quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA) models. When experimental data are available, performing Bayesian inference is a good alternative approach that allows backward calculation in a stochastic QMRA model to update the experts’ knowledge about the microbial dynamics of a given food‐borne pathogen. In this article, we propose a complex example where Bayesian inference is applied to a high‐dimensional second‐order QMRA model. The case study is a farm‐to‐fork QMRA model considering genetic diversity of Bacillus cereus in a cooked, pasteurized, and chilled courgette purée. Experimental data are Bacillus cereus concentrations measured in packages of courgette purées stored at different time‐temperature profiles after pasteurization. To perform a Bayesian inference, we first built an augmented Bayesian network by linking a second‐order QMRA model to the available contamination data. We then ran a Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm to update all the unknown concentrations and unknown quantities of the augmented model. About 25% of the prior beliefs are strongly updated, leading to a reduction in uncertainty. Some updates interestingly question the QMRA model.     

The Effectiveness of Educational Programs to Improve Recognition and Reporting of Elder Abuse and Neglect: A Systematic Review of the Literature

Health professionals often lack adequate protocols or knowledge to detect, manage, and prevent elder maltreatment. This systematic review describes and evaluates existing literature on the effectiveness of educational interventions to improve health professionals' recognition and reporting of elder abuse and neglect. Fourteen articles described 22 programs ranging from brief didactics to experiential learning and targeted a variety of health and social service audiences. Most evaluations were limited to satisfaction measures. These programs may result in increased awareness, collaboration, and improved case finding. However, using the published literature to guide new program planning is constrained by lack of details and limited evaluations.