Asymptotic Inference on Cointegrating Rank in Partial Systems

The likelihood ratio test for cointegrating rank is analyzed for partial (or conditional) systems in the vector autoregressive error-correction model. Under the assumption of weak exogeneity for the cointegrating parameters, the asymptotic distributions are given and tables of critical values are provided. A discussion is given of some of the assumptions of the model, why they are needed, and how they are tested.     

Matrix-analytic Models and their Analysis

We survey phase-type distributions and Markovian point processes, aspects of how to use such models in applied probability calculations and how to fit them to observed data. A phase-type distribution is defined as the time to absorption in a finite continuous time Markov process with one absorbing state. This class of distributions is dense and contains many standard examples like all combinations of exponential in series/parallel. A Markovian point process is governed by a finite continuous time Markov process (typically ergodic), such that points are generated at a Poisson intensity depending on the underlying state and at transitions; a main special case is a Markov-modulated Poisson process. In both cases, the analytic formulas typically contain matrix-exponentials, and the matrix formalism carried over when the models are used in applied probability calculations as in problems in renewal theory, random walks and queueing. The statistical analysis is typically based upon the EM algorithm, viewing the whole sample path of the background Markov process as the latent variable.     

Estimating systems of trending variables

A survey is given of some results on inference in cointegrated systems. We discuss some regression methods, and contrast them with the analysis of the vector autoregressive model. We discuss determination of cointegrating rank and estimation of parameters, as well as asymptotic inference. The problems are treated for 1(1) and for 1(2) variables.     

从阴阳五行看中国戏剧何以晚成

阴阳五行思想发源于中国上古时期的农业社会。殷代的四方观念、“五行材质说”和《易经》的思想体系是我们所见最早的相关记载。阴阳五行彼此牵制、调和矛盾、循环往复的机制 ,因中国人以宗法制为基础的社会组织结构而神圣化 ,并演化为一种涵盖天地万物的综合思维模式 ,左右了中国人的思维方式、行为方式。这种思维模式与戏剧的意志冲突精神是针锋相对的 ,是导致中国戏曲姗姗来迟的一个重要原因。     

腐败的机制分析及反腐防腐措施探讨

腐败有自己的机制,是由对人性的基本假设不完全正确导致的制度内在缺陷所决定的,其机制有三种:动力机制、运行机制、调控机制。这三个机制是官员对制度内在缺陷的适应。因此,从根本上反腐败就必须对假设加以调整,运用权力制衡,破坏腐败发生、发展变化的机制。     

Global QUALITY OF LIFE (QOL), health and ability are primarily determined by our consciousness. Research findings from Denmark 1991–2004

Objective: To explain the global quality of life (QOL) from 2000 indicators representing all aspects of life. Design and setting: Two cross sectional population studies, one prospective cohort study and one retrospective cohort study. Participants: (1) Representative sample of 2500 Danes (18–88 years), (2) 7222 members of the Copenhagen Perinatal Birth Cohort 1959–1961 (31–33 years), (3) 9.006 mothers and their 8820 children born in Copenhagen 1959–1961, (4) 746 Danes (55–66 years). Main outcome measures: Global QOL measured by SEQOL (self evaluation of QOL) containing eight global QOL measures: Well-being, life-satisfaction, happiness, fulfilment of needs, experience of temporal and spatial domains, expression of lifes potentials and objective factors. Results: 2000 associations; strongest between QOL and health, ability, the personal philosophy of life, the relationships to oneself, the partner and friends; weakest between QOL and 1000 early life factors, 1000 life events and 100 objective factors like income. Conclusions: Quality of life is associated with personal health and attitude towards life, rather than objective factors, life style, or life events. We conclude that QOL can be developed independently and thus be used as medicine.     

以“生态”范畴更新元哲学内容的探讨

"生态"概念作为元哲学范畴的提出,包括三个方面的内容--生态世界观、生态思维观和生态社会观.生态世界观认为人生活在其中的世界是人、社会与自然处在统一的生态系统中的世界.生态思维观以复杂系统为对象,具有具体性、关联性和变动性等特点.生态社会观则把社会放在人类史与自然史相互作用的不断演化的复合生态系统中来考察.     

Quality of Life as Medicine: Interventions that Induce Salutogenesis. A Review of the Literature

This paper reviews the medical (salutogenic) effect of interventions that aim to improve quality of life. Review of studies where the global quality of life in chronically ill patients was improved independently of subjective and objective factors (like physical and mental health, yearly income, education, social network, self-esteem, sexual ability and problems or work). The methods used were subtypes of integrative medicine (non-drug CAM) like mind body medicine, body psychotherapy, clinical holistic medicine, consciousness-based medicine and sexology. In about 20 papers on QOL as medicine, in cancer, coronary heart disease, chronic pain, mental illness, sexual dysfunction, low self-esteem, low working ability and poor QOL, the most successful intervention strategy seems to be to create a maternal, infantile bonding induced by a combination of conversation therapy and bodywork. The papers examined the treatments of over 2,000 chronically ill or dysfunctional patients and more than 20 different types of health problems. Global QOL measured by SEQOL, QOL5, QOL1, self-rated physical health, self-rated mental health, self-rated sexual functioning, anorgasmia, genital pain, self-rated working ability, self-rated relation to self, well-being, life-satisfaction, happiness, fulfillment of needs, experience of temporal and spatial domains, expression of life’s potentials, and objective functioning. We found “QOL as medicine” able in the treatment of physical disorders and illnesses including chronic pain (Number Needed to Treat (NNT) = 1–3, Number Needed to Harm (NNH) > 500), in mental illness (NNT = 1–3, NNH > 500), in sexual dysfunctions (NNT = 1–2, NNH > 1,000), self-rated low working ability (NNT = 2, NNH > 500), and self-rated low QOL (NNT = 2, NNH > 2,000). We found that QOL improving interventions helped or cured 30–90% of the patients, typically within one year, independent of the type of health problem. “QOL as medicine” seems to be able in improving chronic mental, somatic and sexual health issues without side effects.     

Global QUALITY OF LIFE (QOL), health and ability are primarily determined by our consciousness. Research findings from Denmark 1991–2004

Social Indicators Research - Objective: To explain the global quality of life (QOL) from 2000 indicators representing all aspects of life. Design and setting: Two cross sectional population...