A comparative evaluation of the estimators of the three-parameter generalized pareto distribution

The parameters and quantiles of the three-parameter generalized Pareto distribution (GPD3) were estimated using six methods for Monte Carlo generated samples. The parameter estimators were the moment estimator and its two variants, probability-weighted moment estimator, maximum likelihood estimator, and entropy estimator. Parameters were investigated using a factorial experiment. The performance of these estimators was statistically compared, with the objective of identifying the most robust estimator from amongst them.     

英语学习者“汉语思维”的成因及对策初探

中国学习者的“汉语思维”是其有效进行英语交流的主要障碍，而这种不利于英语学习的思维方式恰是“翻译法”统治下的英语课堂教学的产物。目前“翻译法”的课堂操作暴露出两大问题，一是将作为目的的翻译（“交际翻译”）和作为手段的翻译（“教学翻译”）混为一谈，二是翻译手段的课堂运用多盲目、欠合理，致使教学翻译无法实现其应有的良性作用，反而阻碍了学习者“英语思维”的形成和发展。包括“五步曲”在内的一些教学设想旨在避免教学翻译的负面影响，使之促进学习者“英语思想”的形成。     

我国社会养老保险制度的收入再分配效应分析

 针对我国现行养老保险制度覆盖面有限，并且对不同就业类型人员采取有差别的制度安排等问题，一些学者认为，现行养老保险制度实际上扩大了贫富差距，不利于社会公平发展。那么，我国现行的养老保险制度安排到底产生了怎样的收入再分配？当前的养老保险制度安排是否有利于缩小贫富差距和促进公平发展？本文以统计局公布的年度数据为基础，采用统计模拟和精算方法，对不同就业类型人群、不同收入水平人群、不同性别人群、不同缴费年限人群以及不同寿命人群因养老保险制度安排产生的收入再分配进行测算和分析，得出相关的结论和启示。     

基于KJ法及KANO模型的产品功能设计方法研究

针对现有的功能设计方法中存在的新功能开发无创新、功能需求度模糊等问题,提出了一种基于KJ法及KANO 模型的产品功能设计方法。运用限定式KJ法建立产品功能清单,并采用优化后的KANO模型对目标用户的需求度数据 进行统计和分析,得到各功能的需求类型及需求度指标,构建反映目标用户需求的产品功能塔,以此作为个性化需求定 制或功能修改的理论依据。最后以洗衣机的功能设计为案例探索本方法在实际功能设计中的有效性,结果表明：该方法 能够直观地体现产品目标用户对各功能的需求,有利于优化产品功能设计流程,提高用户对产品的满意度。     

胡适实验主义治学方法的形成与演化

“大胆的假设,小心的求证”是胡适实验主义治学方法的高度概括。怀疑—假设—求证是其治学方法三个最重要的构成部分。这一治学方法思路的最终确立在时间上有一形成过程,即从萌芽到试验到理论化时期。同时,在思维逻辑上是由一不自觉到自觉的过程。     

口语测试对四、六级分层教学的积极反拨效应

笔者通过对四、六级分层教学提高班的测试模式调查发现,口语测试对提高班的英语教学有积极的反拨效应,主要表现在以下几方面：1）学生更重视口语练习;2）课堂上口语练习的形式、内容更丰富;3）口语训练观念的改变;4）学生课外口语练习主动性提高;5）口语测试结果为自我评价提供了依据。     

Modelling method effects as individual causal effects

Summary.  Method effects often occur when different methods are used for measuring the same construct. We present a new approach for modelling this kind of phenomenon, consisting of a definition of method effects and a first model, the method effect model , that can be used for data analysis. This model may be applied to multitrait–multimethod data or to longitudinal data where the same construct is measured with at least two methods at all occasions. In this new approach, the definition of the method effects is based on the theory of individual causal effects by Neyman and Rubin. Method effects are accordingly conceptualized as the individual effects of applying measurement method j instead of k . They are modelled as latent difference scores in structural equation models. A reference method needs to be chosen against which all other methods are compared. The model fit is invariant to the choice of the reference method. The model allows the estimation of the average of the individual method effects, their variance, their correlation with the traits (and other latent variables) and the correlation of different method effects among each other. Furthermore, since the definition of the method effects is in line with the theory of causality, the method effects may (under certain conditions) be interpreted as causal effects of the method. The method effect model is compared with traditional multitrait–multimethod models. An example illustrates the application of the model to longitudinal data analysing the effect of negatively (such as 'feel bad') as compared with positively formulated items (such as 'feel good') measuring mood states.     

‘I Just Don't Agree’: A Voice-Oriented Analysis of An IFPS Case of Alleged Child Maltreatment

In contrast to the many outcome studies of Intensive Family Preservation Services (IFPS), little is known about the underlying personal and relational dynamics of family crisis interventions. This article focuses on the core evolving dynamics of the changing self-presentations of a parent involved in an intensive home-based family preservation case of alleged child maltreatment. Three key family intervention sessions were videotaped and transcribed including both verbal and nonverbal behavior. The Listening Guide Method – a theoretically flexible, qualitative, relationally oriented method of in-depth interpretative analysis – served as our guide for this case analysis. In the processes of change toward a jointly constructed meaningful narrative on responsibility and self-care, two key elements emerged as playing a pivotal role: (1) the momentum of a potential referral of children to out-of-home care that precedes the start of an IFPS intervention and (2) the rhizomatic or root-like intertwinement of the voices of both parent and therapist with respect to the rationale for any involvement of society in the family. We argue that discourses on imminent placement in the context of family preservation deserve a genuine and valuable position in the initial discourse of a family therapist when entering a family in the context of crisis intervention. Both in understanding and driving any processes of change, we may need to reconsider our own willingness to step into the blending interplay of discourse and counter-discourse with our clients on the subject of our often drastic intervention. Consequently, we may read this narrative analysis as an invitation to reflect on the conceptualization of ‘client readiness’ in psychotherapy and to shift our thinking on preconditions for therapy from a client's readiness toward a therapist's attentiveness to listen.     

企业信息化促进企业价值增值的途径分析

实践证明,企业信息化可以提高企业创新和竞争能力,并可促进企业价值增值。在阐述企业信息化含义的基础上,建立企业信息化与企业价值增值的关系模型,说明企业信息化与企业价值增值之间的非对称关系,分析企业信息化促进企业价值增值的途径。