Optimal predictive sample size for case–control studies

Summary.  The identification of factors that increase the chances of a certain disease is one of the classical and central issues in epidemiology. In this context, a typical measure of the association between a disease and risk factor is the odds ratio. We deal with design problems that arise for Bayesian inference on the odds ratio in the analysis of case–control studies. We consider sample size determination and allocation criteria for both interval estimation and hypothesis testing. These criteria are then employed to determine the sample size and proportions of units to be assigned to cases and controls for planning a study on the association between the incidence of a non-Hodgkin's lymphoma and exposition to pesticides by eliciting prior information from a previous study.     

Solving Resource Allocation Problems When Earning Effects Are Present

Learning effects play an important role in certain resource allocation problems, and several authors have proposed models for these problems that capture the relevant relationships. However, the models may be difficult to implement or have shortcomings in the prescribed solution procedures. In this paper, we selectively review the work to date and present a simple reformulation that facilitates solution by off-the-shelf software.     

论农村项目化公共品供给的组织困境及其逻辑——基于某新农村建设示范村经验的实证分析

基于对某新农村示范村建设成效的实证分析,展示项目化公共品供给具体实施中的诸种组织困境:“以县为主”的供给模式下乡村组织失语、乡村组织自利性凸显以及村庄内部整合能力弱化成为项目化公共品供给中遭遇到的组织困境.诸种组织困境的生成是后税费时期基层组织运作逻辑、乡村社会治理样态以及乡村社会内在变化等因素共同作用的结果,文章展示困境出现的复杂逻辑.组织困境造成供给与需求之间错位、公共品质量低下、资源大量浪费、国家资源下乡并没有带来基层治理组织合法性的相应提升等一系列严重后果.     

生态产业链网结构的协同收益分配研究

生态产业链网结构中节点企业之间通过副产品交换等协同生产创造出新增收益,本文从协同的角度将协同收益分配问题引入到生态产业链网结构的研究领域。构建了包含生态技术水平、生态贡献、投入水平和承担的风险四个影响因素的分配因子,以蒙西工业园区中的二氧化碳生态产业链为例,探讨了该分配因子的实际应用。     

多粒子群混合算法求解虚拟组织服务资源配置

为了提高虚拟组织服务资源配置的效率,本文提出了一种多粒子群混合算法。该混合算法将多种群与线性搜索相结合,在算法优化过程中,通过多个粒子种群协同来控制种群的多样性,将多种群中较优的粒子进行复制,同时在每个种群中对单个粒子进行维变量变换。实验结果表明该方法具有可行性。     

资源税改革对矿产资源配置的效应分析——以新疆为例

为加快新疆发展,中央决定由新疆率先进行资源税费改革,将原油、天然气资源税由从量计征改为从价计征。文章从资源税改革的核心内容出发,以新疆为例,分析了资源税改革在不同层次上对资源的配置效应。论证了资源税改革是资源得到合理配置的前提,是完善节能减排经济政策、保证经济安全和资源安全的重要内容。资源税改革将通过提高资源税税负、增加资源地的地方财政,让利于地方,使资源优势转变为真正的经济优势,平衡东西部差距,优化资源的区域间配置。     

“名义”风格与投资组合“黑箱”——基金风格漂移行为的动态分析

基于Sharpe(1992)风格模型,笔者对投资基金的风格漂移行为进行了实证研究,结果表明无论是封闭式基金还是开放式基金,实际的资产配置结果与所承诺的"名义"风格之间存在明显的差异,基金生命周期内的资产组合配置属于"黑箱"过程;尤其在市场波动剧烈条件下,基金更加倾向于选择能动性较强的资产配置方式,进而导致更大程度的风格漂移。有效识别基金的"名义"风格与实际资产配置方式的差异,了解基金投资组合构建的"黑箱"过程,有助于投资者进行更加科学地选择基金与投资决策。     

我国省级区域的人均碳排放研究

结合我国各省级区域发展不平衡的现状,将中国分为东、中、西、东北四大区域,以人均碳排放原则作为国家分配给各省级区域碳排放配额的依据.运用最小二乘法和Eviews软件对人均收入和人均碳排放的关系进行分析,以期为各省级区域的碳排放配额分配提供参考.     

人口流动与人力资源的优化配置

作为一种与社会经济发展密切相关的社会现象,我国现阶段的人口流动有其来自不同角度的动因及内在特点。这种人口流动在很大程度上激活了人力资源的优化配置机制。要进一步理顺上述二者的关系,促使其形成合理、动态、有序的运作,必须采取培育市场、降低限制、推进小城镇建设等市场化措施及对策。     

Rationalising inefficiency: Staff utilisation in branches of a large Canadian bank

In this paper we consider staffing decisions in branches of a large Canadian bank. The bank has well-developed staffing models and the branches work in a highly competitive environment. One would therefore expect limited ‘inefficiency’ in the sense of wasted resources and over-staffing. Using Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) we nevertheless find considerable ‘inefficiency’ which raises the question whether this is best interpreted as waste or if the apparent inefficiency may serve other purposes. To investigate this, we invoke the theoretical framework of rational inefficiency (Bogetoft and Hougaard [8]).