试论工业经济效益指标体系的建立和完善

提高经济效益是我国全部经济工作的中心环节,也是整个经济持续发展的关键问题。建立一套科学合理的工业企业经济效益指标体系,不仅能比较全面地看清企业的现状,还能促进企业改进工作,提高效益,起到一种导向的作用。     

Addiction severity predictions using client network properties

By statistical analysis of client data it is shown how past or current network information together with other knowledge assesses treatment needs. The main findings are as follows. The client's previous exposure to addicts in the family has almost no influence on his or her present contacts with addicts in daily life. About 30% of the clients have experienced addicts both in family and among friends, about 30% have only family exposure, about 20% have neither kind of exposure, and about 20% have no family exposure but have current exposure to addicts. Exposure to addicts in family implies a higher risk of severe need for professional intervention than no such exposure. For the clients with no family exposure but with current exposure to addicts there is, somewhat surprisingly, a lower risk than for the other three categories of clients. This effect seems to be mainly because the psychiatric status of these clients is somewhat better than for those in the other three categories. The effect disappears if we look solely for drug addiction intervention needs; then there is a clear increase in relative treatment needs for the categories with previous or present addiction exposure compared to those without.     

RMI指标确定岩体经验参数m,s的方法

Hoek -Brown准则是国际著名的岩体经验强度准则 ,精确确定经验参数m ,s是正确应用该准则的关键。在简单介绍经验强度准则和RMI分类指标的基础上 ,阐述了由RMI指标确定经验参数m ,s的方法     

人口、经济与资源环境系统耦合演进问题分析——以宁夏回族自治区为例

人口、经济与资源环境系统间耦合协调发展是实现区域社会经济高质量可持续发展的首要前提和主要途径。宁夏人口、经济与资源环境系统的耦合演进轨迹表明:宁夏人口系统和经济系统呈稳中向好的发展趋势,资源环境系统呈"四波段"的变化趋势;人口、经济、资源环境系统间相互作用的强度逐步增强,由失调状态逐步向更高层次的协调状态发展;综合发展水平类型经历了资环主导经济滞后型、人口主导资环滞后型、经济主导资环滞后型。     

中国城市民生发展的区域差异测度、来源分解与形成机理

本文基于熵值法构建城市民生发展指数,利用Dagum基尼系数和方差分解方法首次从空间和结构两个视角考察我国城市民生发展的差异大小及来源,并运用关系数据分析范式研究其形成机理。研究发现:我国城市民生发展水平持续向好,但2010年之后民生发展不均衡现象显著;民生发展总体差异主要来源于区域间差异,其中东部和中部区域间差异贡献最大,东部区域内差异贡献显著高于中部、西部地区;社会发展差异和生态建设差异是民生发展差异的主要结构来源;人民生活差异、科技创新差异对民生发展差异的影响均从东向西依次减弱,社会发展差异的作用则依次增强,生态建设差异的影响在中部地区最为突出,经济发展差异对东部地区的影响较弱;人民生活差异、科技创新差异上升是导致2010年之后民生发展差异扩大的主要原因。本研究丰富了城市民生评价体系的构建方案,为揭示我国城市民生发展差异状况、探索协同提升对策提供了重要借鉴经验。     

基于机器学习LSTM&US模型的消费者信心指数预测研究

消费者信心指数等宏观经济指标具有时间上的滞后效应和动态变化的多维性,不易精确预测。本文基于机器学习长短时间记忆(Long Short-Term Memory,LSTM)神经网络模型,结合大数据技术挖掘消费者信心指数相关网络搜索数据(User Search,US),进而构建一种LSTM&US预测模型,并将其应用于对我国消费者信心指数的长期、中期与短期的预测研究,同时引入多个基准预测模型进行了对比分析。结果发现:引入网络搜索数据能够提高LSTM神经网络模型的预测性能与预测精度;LSTM&US预测模型具有较好的泛化能力,对不同期限的预测效果均较稳定,其预测性能与预测精度均优于其他六种基准预测模型(LSTM、SVR&US、RFR&US、BP&US、XGB&US和LGB&US);预测结果显示本文提出的LSTM&US预测模型具有一定的实用价值,该预测方法为消费者信心指数的预测与预判提供了一种新的研究思路,丰富了机器学习方法在宏观经济指标预测领域中的理论研究。     

Evaluating the Problem Gambling Severity Index

A large, integrated survey data set provided by the Ontario Problem Gambling Centre was used to investigate psychometric properties of the Problem Gambling Severity Index (PGSI). This nine-item self-report instrument was designed to measure a single, problem gambling construct. Unlike its nearest competitor—the South Oaks Gambling Screen (SOGS)—the PGSI was designed specifically for use with a general population rather than in a clinical context. The present analyses demonstrated that the PGSI does assess a single, underlying, factor, but that this is complicated by different, multiple factor structures for respondents with differing levels of problem gambling severity. The PGSI also demonstrated small to moderate correlations with measures of gambling frequency and faulty cognitions. Overall, the PGSI presents a viable alternative to the SOGS for assessing degrees of problem gambling severity in a non-clinical context.

广义部分线性单指数模型的惩罚样条估计

 本文讨论了指数族广义部分线性单指数模型(Generalized Partially Linear Single Index Models， GPLSIM) 的惩罚样条迭代估计，提出了基于惩罚似然和一组预先取定的单指数参数向量 的初始估计的迭代估计算法。另外本文还通过一组模拟数据的分析对所提出的迭代算法进行了验证。     

从经济合作走向泛经济发展：大国外交转型中的双边贸易模式

中国特色大国外交，是近年中国外交理念探索性的新尝试。本文对外交部官方辞令进行提炼，构建出衡量中国与贸易各国外交亲疏的时变等级指数，并从外交建立渊源、外交维系过程两个维度论证其有效性。基于一个包含外交因素的贸易引力模型，本文提出了“外交—贸易”驱动假说，继而利用1992-2013年中国与166个国家的双边贸易数据，为这一假说提供系统性的经验证据。研究表明，外交关系每提升一个等级，中国对他国商品的开放程度能显著提高23%；即使考察了外交内生问题、模型时点转变以及指标更替等多个方面，仍能够证实假说成立，确保了结论的稳健性。进一步研究发现，外交驱动作用不仅表现为“倒U型”的非线性传导模式，而且存在显著的“强国”与“弱国”结构突变机制，即弱国外交以发展经济为主、强国外交重视泛经济层面的转型调整。这一结果意味着，在总体国际关系趋好的大形势下，中国的外交力量呈现“从经济转向泛经济合作”的大国格局。     

A new index for measuring evenness

Diversity and evenness play a significant role to satisfy the basic needs like food, drinking water, fuel, shelter, and medicine. Hence, these phenomena need to be measured with great precision. We propose a new index for measuring the evenness phenomenon quantitatively based on the frequencies (number of individuals) of different communities (species, families etc.). The new index is compared with fourteen other indices based on the different criteria laid down by Smith and Wilson (1996). Our proposed index, named as Z-A Index, is easy to calculate and easy to understand. Its standard limits between 0 and 1 make this new index interpretable logically. The comparison with the existing indices indicates that the newly proposed index performs well in the sense that it satisfies 11 of the 14 requirements and desirable features given by Smith and Wilson (1996).