基于可变参数优化的相关证据合成方法研究

总结了相关证据合成的理论方法,分析了已有合成方法的不足,对相关证据的相关焦元 的分布情况进行了分析,提出一种面向问题的基于可变参数的相关证据的合成方法. 方法只对 相关焦元的基本可信数进行修正,克服了对相关证据所有焦元进行修正的弱点,使修正的对象 更加合理,修正系数可用基于学习的寻优方法得到. 在相关证据的相关焦元的基本可信数未知 的情况下也可进行相关证据的合成. 计算结果表明该方法对合成的结果有明显的改进     

人力资源个体价值计量方法——当期实现价值系数法

由于人力资源自身具有复杂性、不确定性的特点,使得人力资源价值难以计量。而准确的计量人力资源价值,尤其是人力资源的个体价值是人力资源会计能否实施的关键因素。针对这个问题,本文在分析前人成果的基础上提出了人力资源当期实现价值系数法计量模型。并通过实例验证了计量模型的实用性。     

中国人口老龄化的地区差异分析

本文基于1990—2013年省际面板数据，以老年人口比重作为老龄化指标，采用基尼系数分解方法和Kernel密度估计方法，实证分析了中国人口老龄化的地区差异及其动态演进过程。研究结果表明：中国人口老龄化在地区分布上呈现出明显的非均衡特征；基尼系数测算及其分解结果表明，人口老龄化的地区差异总体上呈现波动缩小趋势；2004年以前，地区间差距和超变密度交替成为总体地区差异的主要来源，2004年以后，超变密度成为总体差异的主要来源。 Kernel密度估计显示，老龄化程度不断加深，地区差异呈波动趋势。     

影响我国居民收入分配差距因素的实证分析

世界银行2005年发展报告显示,中国的基尼系数按由低到高排名第85位,2007年达到了0.48,超过了国际上0.4的警戒线。本文对中国1994—2007年的相关统计资料进行实证分析,以验证税收、转移支付和教育与收入分配差距之间遵从的演变路径,探讨了城乡转移支付对收入分配差距的影响力度,得出结论:教育和税收能缩小收入分配差距,但影响有限;现行的社会保障制度并没有实现制度上的公平,农村社保制度对收入差距的负面影响远大于城市社保制度。     

Testing the Equality of Two Exponential Distributions

This paper proposes an overlapping-based test statistic for testing the equality of two exponential distributions with different scale and location parameters. The test statistic is defined as the maximum likelihood estimate of the Weitzman's overlapping coefficient, which estimates the agreement of two densities. The proposed test statistic is derived in closed form. Simulated critical points are generated for the proposed test statistic for various sample sizes and significance levels via Monte Carlo Simulations. Statistical powers of the proposed test are computed via simulation studies and compared to those of the existing Log likelihood ratio test.     

Societal Inequality and individual subjective well-being: Results from 68 societies and over 200,000 individuals, 1981–2008

Income inequality has been contentious for millennia, a source of political conflict for centuries, and is now widely feared as a pernicious “side effect” of economic progress. But equality is only a means to an end and so must be evaluated by its consequences. The fundamental question is: What effect does a country's level of income inequality have on its citizens' quality of life, their subjective well-being? We show that in developing nations inequality is certainly not harmful but probably beneficial, increasing well-being by about 8 points out of 100. This may well be Kuznets's inverted “U”: In the earliest stages of development some are able to move out of the (poorly paying) subsistence economy into the (better paying) modern economy; their higher pay increases their well-being while simultaneously increasing inequality. In advanced nations, income inequality on average neither helps nor harms. Estimates are from random-intercept fixed-effects multi-level models, confirmed by over four dozen sensitivity tests. Data are from the pooled World Values/European Values Surveys, Waves 1 to 5 with 169 representative national samples in 68 nations, 1981 to 2009, and over 200,000 respondents, replicated and extended in the European Quality of Life Surveys.     

The Complete Exact Null Distribution of Spearman's Rho for n = 12(1)18

Spearman's rank correlation coefficient, Rho, is a widely used nonparametric measure of association. Complete, exact tables of the null distribution are calculated and presented for n = 12 to 18.     

公平感对供应链成员定价决策影响的研究

本文研究公平感对由一个供应商和一个零售商组成的二级供应链中的定价决策的影响,其中供应商决定批发价格,零售商在接受供应商批发价格合同之后决定零售价格,市场需求受到零售价格的线性影响.采用管理实验方法得出,首先,供应商的批发价格和零售商的零售价格均分别低于完全理性假设下的均衡解;供应商是利他性的,即,乐于看到零售商收益的增加,并且,供应商认为零售商是完全理性的,即零售商的决策目标是最大化自身收益;然而,零售商却是刻毒性的,即乐于看到供应商收益的减少.其次,批发价格的变异度大于零售价格的,即供应商决策的难度大于零售商的.给管理者的启示是:供应商应考虑零售商的刻毒性的特征,降低批发价格,以提高零售商接受供应商所提批发价格的概率;此外,还应该为供应商提供辅助决策手段,以降低批发价格的变异度,提高决策的准确性     

应用同伦正则化算法反演二维溶质运移模型中的弥散系数

利用同伦正则化算法探讨了二维对流弥散方程的依赖空间变量的弥散系数反演问题.讨论了初始迭代值、数值微分步长、以及收敛精度对算法实现的影响.数值模拟表明,同伦正则化算法对于此类参数反演问题是一种有效的方法.     

Robust bootstrap estimates in heteroscedastic semi-varying coefficient models and applications in analyzing Australia CPI data

This article deals with the estimation of the parametric component, which is of primary interest, in the heteroscedastic semi-varying coefficient models. Based on the bootstrap technique, we present a procedure for estimating the parameters, which can provide a reliable approximation to the asymptotic distribution of the profile least-square (PLS) estimator. Furthermore, a bootstrap-type estimator of covariance matrix is developed, which is proved to be a consistent estimator of the covariance matrix. Moreover, some simulation experiments are conducted to evaluate the finite sample performance for the proposed methodology. Finally, the Australia CPI dataset is analyzed to demonstrate the application of the methods.