构建和谐社会中的收入分配问题

当前我国社会收入分配问题的症结不是在于基尼系数所表达的分配结果不均,而是在于机会不平等的过程中产生的分配不公。能否处理好不同范畴的收入分配问题,特别是因滥用公共权力引起的社会分配不公,则关系到改革、发展、稳定的大局。社会需要通过改革有效调整已经形成的社会收入分配格局,使之能够朝着公平、正义的方向演变,这是构建和谐社会中亟待解决的关键问题之一。     

Exact average coverage probabilities and confidence coefficients of confidence intervals for discrete distributions

For a confidence interval (L(X),U(X)) of a parameter θ in one-parameter discrete distributions, the coverage probability is a variable function of θ. The confidence coefficient is the infimum of the coverage probabilities, inf  _θ P _θ (θ∈(L(X),U(X))). Since we do not know which point in the parameter space the infimum coverage probability occurs at, the exact confidence coefficients are unknown. Beside confidence coefficients, evaluation of a confidence intervals can be based on the average coverage probability. Usually, the exact average probability is also unknown and it was approximated by taking the mean of the coverage probabilities at some randomly chosen points in the parameter space. In this article, methodologies for computing the exact average coverage probabilities as well as the exact confidence coefficients of confidence intervals for one-parameter discrete distributions are proposed. With these methodologies, both exact values can be derived.     

B-spline estimation for partially linear varying coefficient composite quantile regression models

Abstract

In this article, a new composite quantile regression estimation (CQR) approach is proposed for partially linear varying coefficient models (PLVCM) under composite quantile loss function with B-spline approximations. The major advantage of the proposed procedures over the existing ones is easy to implement using existing software, and it requires no specification of the error distributions. Under the regularity conditions, the consistency and asymptotic normality of the estimators are also derived. Finally, a simulation study and a real data application are undertaken to assess the finite sample performance of the proposed estimation procedure.     

Bayesian estimation for the Pareto income distribution

The Bayes estimators of the Gini index, the mean income and the proportion of the population living below a prescribed income level are obtained in this paper on the basis of censored income data from a pareto income distribution. The said estimators are obtained under the assumptions of a two-parameter exponential prior distribution and the usual squared error loss function. This work is also extended to the case when the income data are grouped and the exact incomes for the individuals in the population are not available. The method for the assessment of the hyperparameters is also outlined. Finally, the results are generalized for the doubly truncated gamma prior distribution. Now deceased.     

青年知识分子思想政治倾向的基本特征

青年知识分子思想政治倾向的基本特征主要表现在六个方面:一是青年知识分子作为思想活跃的一个社会群体,其思想政治倾向具有明显的时代性特征；二是青年知识分子随着年龄的不断增长、知识积累的不断完备及社会实践经验的不断丰富,其思想政治倾向也逐渐从不成熟到成熟、从不稳定到逐渐稳定,表现出鲜明的阶段性；三是成长、成熟于日益开放时代的青年知识分子,深受开放潮流的浸润,从而使其思想政治倾向具有明显的开放性特征；四是由于青年知识分子思想政治倾向形成时在主观上受着个人经历、认识水平和智能结构的限制,客观上又受历史时代、职业状况、经济状况、社会环境以及年龄等制约,因而必然表现出多样性特征；五是由于青年知识分子在生理上正处于青年时期,他们经常在日常生活中呈现出兴奋与苦闷、激动与烦恼、紧张与松懈等相互矛盾的心理状态,其思想政治倾向也由于个人人生得失、社会发展变革、重大社会事件和重要人物言行的影响而经常发生变动,因而具有鲜明的变动性特征；六是处于不稳定、不平衡状态之中的青年知识分子的思想政治倾向,可能向积极方向发展,也可能向消极方向发展。但是,思想政治倾向发展变化的方向是可以干预和引导的,即青年知识分子的思想政治倾向具有可塑性。     

中国恩格尔系数下降原因新探

在使用恩格尔系数评价某个国家或地区某个阶段的生活贫富状况时，要结合恩格尔系数的具体影响因素，分清其下降的真正原因。论文从恩格尔系数的计算公式出发，认为它的基本影响因素是物价、品种数、各种消费品或劳务的购买量。利用因子分析法分析了导致居民恩格尔系数下降的五种可能的原因，并联系实际具体阐释。     

收入差别过大情况下社会保持稳定的原因分析

我国基尼系数已经超过国际公认的0.4的警戒线,但并没有因此引发社会不稳定。相反,经济社会保持了持续发展的局面。就此,我们分析认为,是我国多方面的特殊国情导致了这一结果。但同时也必须认识到,我国的收入差别确实过大了,政府必须注意采取措施来缩小收入差别。     

Who captures the marks for the Petersen estimator?

Summary.  We examine the claim that the well-known Petersen estimator which is used in population size estimation was not in fact used by the scientist after whom it is named. We show how, in the early years of the last century, the modern use of the Petersen estimator grew from that of the fishing coefficient. Contending with the somewhat conflicting claims that were made at the time, and what by modern standards is poor referencing of sources, we investigate where the credit lies for these concepts, and the principles and protocols which support them. We assess also how far attributions of credit were affected by practical considerations, and the history of the estimator by the nature of the problems being pursued. We identify scientists whose early work on marking and estimating fish populations deserves more credit than it has received.     

基于功效系数法的城市土地利用效益评价——以武汉市为例

城市土地是城市社会和经济发展的基础。城市土地利用效益评价是理论界研究的热点之一，许多学者从不同层面进行了有益的探讨。本文运用功效系数法，建立了城市土地利用效益评价数学模型。首先，从经济、社会与生态三方面综合筛选评价指标并运用德尔菲法确定指标权重；然后，确定备评价指标的效态及其满意值与不允许值；最后，通过Excel软件计算备指标功效系数和城市土地利用效益的综合功效系数，并以武汉市为实证，进行了模型实用性与可信度的分析与评价。     

新疆区域经济差异及其影响因素分析

采用洛伦茨曲线、基尼系数、泰尔指数、非参数分析法及Shorrocks转换矩阵对1978-2009年新疆区域经济差异进行分析,结果表明新疆区域经济发展水平差异呈逐渐加大的趋势,其主要是由于新疆不同区域间发展不平衡造成的；同时,新疆区域经济发展的不平衡是在区域经济格局越来越稳定的惯性中发生的.根据对新疆区域经济差异影响因素的分析,应加大对新疆固定资产投资,并注意投资区域布局的合理化；加快新疆教育事业发展,努力实现教育与经济的协调发展；加快新疆产业结构的调整,推进产业结构的合理化和高级化.