“十三五”时期中国经济社会发展面临的环境与发展新要求

“十三五”时期是中国现代化建设过程中的关键时期,然而展望“十三五”时期,中国经济社会发展面临着国内外环境复杂多变的考验:一方面面临世界经济增长不确定性增强、全球生产组织方式剧烈变化、全球投资和贸易规则酝酿新变化、大宗商品价格持续降低等国际环境;另一方面,面临经济增长换挡、产业转型压力紧迫、人口问题突出、产能过剩严重、资源环境压力大等国内环境。同时,随着国内外环境的变化,“十三五”时期中国多数原有的增长点将出现动力不足,但是也要看到当前中国经济发展过程中正孕育着一些新的增长点,关键是在发展战略、思路和具体的政策等方面做出调整。     

托尼的中国研究及对费孝通乡村研究的影响

托尼的社会学研究在国内学术界被低估甚至被忽视了,他对中国的研究是经得起时间的考验的,也影响了当时中国学者的研究,典型的是费孝通的乡村研究,很大程度上是受到托尼的直接或间接影响。而托尼与费孝通共同的研究传统就是历史视角、整体视角,在此基础上研究中国农村,无论是从一般学术意义上,还是具体的中国当前农村问题的研究上,都具有很大的指导意义和参考价值,继承和发扬这一研究传统,是文化自觉和理论自觉的重要途径。     

从“精卫填海”与“黄帝擒蚩尤”看上古部落的冲突与融合

"精卫填海"神话反映了炎帝神农氏与东夷蚩尤氏冲突的历史,炎帝携女娃东巡蚩尤族领地导致了女娃被害的惨剧,炎帝借用鸟图腾和人死化生的观念,虚构了精卫鸟衔西山之木石以复仇东海的故事。女娃被害促进了炎黄部落的联合,引发"黄帝擒蚩尤"的战争,而决定炎黄部落与蚩尤部落战争的胜败,乃在于南方苗蛮集团中的一支——处于良渚文化圈的女魃部落加入战斗,但战争并没有给女魃部落带来利益,导致了其不能回故土又被迫北迁的结局,这也解释了良渚文化突然由盛转衰的原因。     

Rethinking industrial citizenship: the role and meaning of work in an age of austerity

T. H. Marshall in his famous tract Citizenship and Social Class wrote briefly about what he called ‘industrial citizenship’, a type of belonging rooted in the workplace. Here Marshall's ideas are developed alongside a consideration of Durkheim's Professional Ethics and Civic Morals together with research material from the Guinness Company. It shows the way the Company actively sought to create ‘Guinness citizenship’ within its London brewery. The article draws out the ways in which the significance and potential of work based citizenship for ameliorating the ills of industrial society are clearly articulated in mid‐twentieth century Britain and echo earlier neglected Durkheimian sociological ideas on work. These ideas have real potential to inform contemporary academic and policy debates about the nature of capitalism and the form and content of work now and in the future.     

Does Formal Education for Older Workers Increase Earnings? — Evidence Based on Rich Data and Long‐term Follow‐up

Governments in Europe, Canada and the USA have expressed an ambition to stimulate education of older. In this paper, we analyse if there are effects on annual earnings of formal education for participants aged 42–55 at the time of enrolment in 1994–95. The analysis explores longitudinal population register data stretching from 1982 to 2007. The method used is difference‐in‐differences propensity score matching based on a rich set of covariates, including indicators of health and labor market marginalization. Our findings underline the importance of long follow up periods and imply positive effects for women, especially so for women with children, and no significant average earnings effects for men. These results differ from earlier studies but are stable to several alternative assumptions regarding unobservable characteristics. Data further indicate that the gender gap in our estimates may stem from differences in underlying reasons for enrolment.     

"鞍钢宪法"的历史教训与我国跨越式发展战略

组织革命是跨越式发展的基础。战后以来 ,西方发达国家的经济组织正经历着从福特制向后福特制的转变。“鞍钢宪法”与日本模式曾同为后福特制的先驱 ,但与日本模式启发了知识经济在组织上的变革有很大不同 ,不利的国际结构制约条件、制度变迁的路径依赖以及对生态资源条件的不恰当认识等使“鞍钢宪法”无法成长为未来组织演变的基础。“鞍钢宪法”为我国跨越式发展战略提供了重要启示 :对世界发展潮流高度敏感并对直觉意识不断反思 ;利用传统的文化和组织资源实现制度创新 ;不断突破思维和视野的局限 ;探索后福特制在我国发展的道路     

傣泰民族起源与傣泰民族文化圈的形成新探

中国古代不存在一个可成其为民族的越人族体,泰人也不是越人演变而来的,傣泰民族在汉代以前的历史的追溯已无意义。傣泰民族可追溯的源流在汉代云南滇中,并随后向南迁移到今天的云南南部及东南亚一带。由于傣泰民族在长期的历史迁移与发展中保持了水稻种植、“勐-阪”制度与文化的复制模式,使傣泰民族的先民们能在长期的迁移过程中定居并壮大起来,从而在今天形成了一个傣泰民族居住的文化圈。傣泰民族文化圈是一个文化地理概念,基于共同的民族渊源关系,人们互相理解、宽容、合作、开展社会与经济的交流,共同促进民族与文化的发展,是当代理解傣泰民族文化的新思维。     

一类半线性椭圆型方程的整体解

本文研究一类二阶半线性椭圆型方程正的整体解，所得的结果优于文[1]、[2]。     

The determinants of international creditworthiness and their policy implications

The present paper utilizes an empirical measure of creditworthiness based on bankers' perceptions to estimate the effect of various variables hypothesized to influence assessments of countries' debt-servicing capacity. The data pertain to a cross section of countries within the period 1979–1983. Such estimates necessarily employ a ceteris paribus assumption, which prevents a realistic assessment of the effects generated by policy changes. The second part of the paper develops, therefore, a dynamic simulation model of a hypothetical average economy. The simulations allow analysis of changes in macroeconomic variables and creditworthiness over time within a system that maintains accounting identities and behavioral constraints. Several changes in policy variables are considered that highlight the importance of export expansion. The latter is, of course, an often suggested policy objective, but the present paper demonstrates its effectiveness in terms of a somewhat nonstandard criterion.     

九世班禅与十三世达赖失和原因探析

达赖、班禅两大活佛系统,同领藏传佛教格鲁派。清中叶以前的历辈达赖、班禅均能彼此相安,和好相处,各执领地。然而到了清朝末年,在多方因素的制约下,双方产生矛盾并不断升级,最终九世班禅与十三世达赖关系破裂。其矛盾演变结果,对近代西藏地方的发展和中央与西藏地方的关系产生了一定影响。