西南联大时期的许宝騄与戴世光

许宝騄、戴世光是我国近现代数理统计和社会经济统计领域的两面旗帜。他们二位在上世纪30年代分别留学英国和美国，获得统计学博士和硕士学位。抗日战争爆发后，分别在1940年、1938年回到昆明，任教西南联大。在极其困难的条件下，他们不仅在算学系、经济学系系统讲授数理统计和社会经济统计等课程，而且作出了有重大国际影响的研究成果。艰苦而乐观的生活趣事既反映了当时特殊的时代背景，更彰显出他们高尚的人格品德。     

中国国民财富总量、结构及其演进模式研究——基于“自上而下-自下而上”测度范式

“财富-福利等式”表明国民财富与社会福利具有理论等价关系,是评估发展可持续性的最优指示器。我国国民财富研究相对滞后,总量测度与结构分析都亟待深化。本文基于“自上而下-自下而上”范式,依据国情优化关键参数的设定,改进了我国国民财富与分类资本估算,并剖析了省际国民财富结构以识别其演进模式。研究发现:由于资源禀赋与发展阶段有别,省际国民财富结构差异显著;随着经济发展水平提升,国民财富结构先由自然资本主导转向物质资本与人力资本共同主导,进而转变为人力资本主导,最终迈入社会资本主导。各地区应结合自身禀赋与发展阶段做好“投资组合管理”,以此来提升国民财富并优化其结构从而改善经济发展的持续性。     

Business reform outcomes: Why so different?

Post-crisis policy making increasingly focuses on doing business reforms. We argue that the effects of those reforms will be different across countries. To understand the reasons for the reform outcome divergence, we advance a novel firm-size distribution (FSDs) argument. At the center of the argument is the fact that FSDs are different across countries and stable over time. Then, if a given doing business reform induces firms of different size to grow differently, this will produce a variety of reform outcomes across countries. To advance the argument, we set up a tractable general equilibrium (GE) model and study how firms of different size grow after a doing business reform. The model predicts that larger firms will grow faster than smaller firms after the reform. The model predictions are tested on the Enterprise Surveys (ES) data, merged with the Doing Business indicators. We confirm that firms of different size grow differently after a Doing Business reform. Thus, based on the notable differences of firm size distributions across countries, identical reforms to start, operate and close a business will produce a variety of reform outcomes across countries.     

数字经济供给使用表:概念架构与编制实践研究

数字经济供给使用表是数字经济卫星账户的核心表式,具有统计协调和分析工具的双重作用,能够准确监测数字经济产业发展规模及传统产业与数字经济的融合程度。目前,国际上对数字经济供给使用表的研究尚处于初期探索阶段,还未有国家编制出基于实际数据的数字经济供给使用表,经济合作与发展组织(OECD)对数字经济供给使用表的理论框架进行了前瞻性探索,但系统的数字经济供给使用表构建指南还亟待完善。本文首先从供给和使用层面构建数字经济供给使用表概念框架,界定数字经济特征活动的概念和范围,梳理OECD 划分的数字经济供给使用表中的产品清单和数字经济产业分类;阐释数字经济最终消费、固定资本形成、贸易活动的内涵和种类。其次,围绕“产品×产业×特征活动”三重维度,设计数字经济供给使用表整体架构、阐明其核心指标。再次,编制数字经济供给使用表实例,剖析编制流程、总结编制要点。最后,提出结论和建议。本文尝试完善数字经济统计核算体系,为提出促进我国数字经济高质量发展的政策建议提供核算方法参考。     

The consequences of parental labor migration in China for children's emotional wellbeing

Using data from the 2010 wave of the China Family Panel Studies (CFPS), we study the effects of internal migration in China on the emotional wellbeing of children age 10–15. The 2010 CFPS, a national probability sample survey of the Chinese population, includes 3464 children within this age range. We compare five groups: rural children with local registration living with both parents; urban children with local registration living with both parents; children accompanying their migrant parent(s), children left behind with one parent when the other parent goes out to work; and children left behind or sent to live with others when both parents go out to work. We expect the last three groups to be at risk of increased emotional difficulties compared to children living with both parents. We test these expectations using both conventional regression models and community fixed-effects models. The evidence supporting our expectations is very weak and inconsistent, leading us to conclude that in the Chinese context family arrangements have little impact on the emotional wellbeing of children. We conclude by offering some conjectures as to why this is so.     

Influence of National Qualifications Frameworks in Conceptualising Feedback to Students

Social work students in Britain receive feedback on a range of academic and practice issues as they progress through qualifying courses, however the way in which feedback differs to reflect the increasing complexity of learning as the course progresses is unclear. There is little, if any, guidance at a national level and the most widely known documents that provide information about the hierarchy of qualifications are the National Qualifications Frameworks (NQFs). Despite the widespread acceptance of NQFs there is little evidence supporting their use in professional areas such as social work. This study uses a documentary analysis to critique the Scottish Credit and Qualifications Framework (SCQF). The findings suggest that there are fundamental difficulties with the SCQF and its value in helping academics to better conceptualise feedback that reflects the increasing complexity of learning throughout the social work qualifying course. Whilst the SCQF is specific to a Scottish context, it is suggested that the inherent limitations and dominance of a neo-liberal ideology are common to other NQFs. It may be necessary to create the conditions where academics and students are able to discuss and debate the merits of NQFs and their implementation in social work qualifying courses.     

改琦和海内外孤本《先贤谱图》考

过去对清代画家改琦的介绍都很零散,且对其作品也没有系统的罗列。本文根据各种历史资料,首次厘清了改琦的家世和祖籍,其次陈述了对海内孤本《先贤谱图》的鉴定和艺术价值,再次分析了文字狱海富润事件对改琦创作《先贤谱图》和其他艺术作品的深刻影响,然后概括介绍了《先贤谱图》的主要内容;文章最后对《先贤谱图》的原创力、对改琦艺术作品和艺术思想,及其文化综合主义世界观作了初步的探讨。     

The limitations of using school league tables to inform school choice

Summary. In England, so-called 'league tables' based on examination results and test scores are published annually, ostensibly to inform parental choice of secondary schools. A crucial limitation of these tables is that the most recent published information is based on the current performance of a cohort of pupils who entered secondary schools several years earlier, whereas for choosing a school it is the future performance of the current cohort that is of interest. We show that there is substantial uncertainty in predicting such future performance and that incorporating this uncertainty leads to a situation where only a handful of schools' future performances can be separated from both the overall mean and from one another with an acceptable degree of precision. This suggests that school league tables, including value-added tables, have very little to offer as guides to school choice.     

论国民文明行为的缺失及对策

提高国民的文明行为水平是提高国民素质、建设社会主义精神文明的基础,是落实科学发展观、构建和谐社会的重要保证。影响国民文明行为的原因是多方面的,要改变这一现状必须结合中国现代化建设的实际情况,采取有效的方法、措施,进一步引导国民形成良好的文明行为习惯,为构建和谐社会铺平道路。     

唐代的家族、地域与国家认同——唐代“归葬”现象考察

出土的唐代墓志中出现了较多的归葬现象：从唐帝国的边缘地区归葬于国家的中心长安、洛阳。唐代国家观念中的天下观与家国观,蕴含着地域观念和家族观念：地域上是对天下中心的王朝核心区的归属与认同,家族上以忠孝方式表达对家国的忠诚。这为分析唐代的国家认同提供了理路。迁葬或归葬这种耗资巨大的行为仪式即唐代士大夫阶层朴素的国家认同的表达方式。分析唐人的国家认同与唐代社会的互动,有助于吸取历史养分,理解影响国家认同的因素,促进现代的国家认同。