Nonparametric analysis of treatment effects with missing observations

This paper develops a test for comparing treatment effects when observations are missing at random for repeated measures data on independent subjects. It is assumed that missingness at any occasion follows a Bernoulli distribution. It is shown that the distribution of the vector of linear rank statistics depends on the unknown parameters of the probability law that governs missingness, which is absent in the existing conditional methods employing rank statistics. This dependence is through the variance–covariance matrix of the vector of linear ranks. The test statistic is a quadratic form in the linear rank statistics when the variance–covariance matrix is estimated. The limiting distribution of the test statistic is derived under the null hypothesis. Several methods of estimating the unknown components of the variance–covariance matrix are considered. The estimate that produces stable empirical Type I error rate while maintaining the highest power among the competing tests is recommended for implementation in practice. Simulation studies are also presented to show the advantage of the proposed test over other rank-based tests that do not account for the randomness in the missing data pattern. Our method is shown to have the highest power while also maintaining near-nominal Type I error rates. Our results clearly illustrate that even for an ignorable missingness mechanism, the randomness in the pattern of missingness cannot be ignored. A real data example is presented to highlight the effectiveness of the proposed method.     

Some Results Based on a Version of the Generalized Dynamic Entropies

We propose new dynamic measures of uncertainty based on the notion of generalized dynamic entropy introduced in Di Crescenzo and Longobardi (2006). These can uniquely determine distribution functions in continuous and discrete cases, and the characterizations of some well-known distributions are provided. We also define some orderings and aging notions based on the generalized dynamic measures, and prove some of their properties, obtaining as corollaries results that have recently appeared in the literature.     

高校科研经费管理中存在的问题及对策研究

近些年来,我国高校科研经费大幅度增长,科研项目种类日益繁多,给科研经费的管理提出了新的挑战。目前,我国高校科研经费管理中存在着各地各校虽宽严不一,但模式相同,缺乏区别管理,相关部门和责任人各自为政等问题。究其原因是责任意识缺乏和制度建设滞后。解决这些问题的根本出路是通过宣传教育提升相关部门和行为主体的责任意识。有效措施是实行区别管理制度,强化相关职能部门和课题责任人之间的沟通与协调,采取适度灵活的管理政策,有区别地适当提高项目组成员劳务费比重,实行项目主持人责任制。     

我国环境刑罚轻缓化探析

毋庸置疑,在整个国际社会对环境犯罪处以轻缓刑罚的背景下,我国亦应该对环境刑罚采用轻缓化的原则。诚然,我国的环境刑罚制度与其他国家相比还有许多亟待完善的地方,但这并不妨碍我们在借鉴其他国家先进的立法经验的基础上构建适合我国具体国情的环境刑罚制度。在环境刑罚中要突出自由刑的适用,扩大并完善财产刑的适用,明确财产刑中过于模糊的规定,逐步改善环境犯罪的刑事处罚措施过于单一的缺点和功能上的不足,同时提高对辅助刑罚措施的关注。在环境犯罪方面,在适用传统刑罚措施惩治的基础上配合适用辅助刑罚措施,使我国环境刑罚轻缓化实践不至于成为一纸空谈。     

Testing for a change point in a sequence of exponential random variables with repeated values

Two test statistics are proposed for the change-point problem with repeated values when the data follow an exponential distribution. The properties of these two statistics have been studied and their asymptotic distributions under the alternative have been derived. The powers of the two test statistics are compared. Real-data examples are presented to illustrate the application of these tests.     

论拒不执行判决、裁定罪的犯罪构成之改革

拒执罪以立法形式出台以来,虽对"执行难"的情况起到了一定的遏制作用,但由于在犯罪对象、犯罪行为、犯罪主体等构成要件方面存在重大立法缺陷,致使执行实务中适用此罪的情形尚不多;在"诚信守约"的社会风尚遭到严重破坏的新时代背景下,除保护其法益之外,拒执罪的任务还应包括保护"社会信用";拒执罪应以保护"人民法院判决、裁定的正常执行活动和人民法院判决、裁定的权威性"和构建"社会信用体系"为改革方向,以与其他相关的社会信用体系的法律制度形成动态衔接为改革方法,从犯罪对象、犯罪行为和犯罪主体三个方面对犯罪构成进行改革,从而改善本罪的适用状况、推进社会信用体系建设。     

Sensitivity Analysis Using Risk Measures

In a quantitative model with uncertain inputs, the uncertainty of the output can be summarized by a risk measure. We propose a sensitivity analysis method based on derivatives of the output risk measure, in the direction of model inputs. This produces a global sensitivity measure, explicitly linking sensitivity and uncertainty analyses. We focus on the case of distortion risk measures, defined as weighted averages of output percentiles, and prove a representation of the sensitivity measure that can be evaluated on a Monte Carlo sample, as a weighted average of gradients over the input space. When the analytical model is unknown or hard to work with, nonparametric techniques are used for gradient estimation. This process is demonstrated through the example of a nonlinear insurance loss model. Furthermore, the proposed framework is extended in order to measure sensitivity to constant model parameters, uncertain statistical parameters, and random factors driving dependence between model inputs.     

地方高校学困生帮扶现状分析及对策

深入贯彻落实十九大精神，打赢教育战线上的脱贫攻坚战，实施帮扶确保学业困难学生顺利完成学业是每一位教育工作者义不容辞的责任。文章采取问卷调查和访谈相结合的方法对SL学院400名学业困难学生帮扶现状进行了调查，结果显示：学困生帮扶意愿强烈，倾向于向朋辈求助；学困生认为学校已经开展的帮扶很有必要，但效果有待于进一步提高；辅导员作为学校学困生帮扶的主要人员，对学生的帮扶深度不够，效果欠佳，亟待提出相应对策提升帮扶效果，帮助学困生顺利脱困。     

金代宗室管理制度考论

金朝十分重视对宗室的管理,设专门管理机构大宗正府,职掌修撰玉牒、监察训导宗室、宗庙祭祀等宗室事务;宗正官基本上由宗室属亲者担任,但也适当参用世戚勋旧。另有御史台、太常寺以及其他相关机构也兼理宗室事务。这些兼管机构与大宗正府相互配合,各司其职,从不同方面实施对宗室的有效管理。鉴于宗室也是威胁皇权的重要因素,金朝统治者对宗室还采取了诸多政令上的防范措施。     

城市社区图书馆发展问题探析

社区图书馆在城市社区文化建设中发挥着重要作用,然而由于我国社区图书馆事业起步较晚,经验不足,在建设和发展的进程中还存在许多不足之处,文章详细列举了目前我国社区图书馆普遍存在的问题并阐述了应对策略。