Some sufficient conditions for establishing (M,S)-optimality

Two sufficient conditions are given for an incomplete block design to be (M,S- optimal. For binary designs the conditions are (i) that the elements in each row, excluding the diagonal element, of the association matrix differ by at most one, and (ii) that the off-diagonal elements of the block characteristic matrix differ by at most one. It is also shown how the conditions can be utilized for nonbinary designs and that for blocks of size two the sufficient condition in terms of the association matrix can be attained.     

A survey of nested designs

A nest with parameters (r,k,λ)→(r′,k′,λ′) is a BIBD on (b,v,r,k,λ) where each block has a distinguished sublock of cardinality k, the sublocks forming a (b,v,r,k,λ)-design.These designs are ‘nested’ in the sense of W.T. Federer (1972), who recommended the use of these designs for the sequential addition of periods in marketing experiments in order to retain Youden design properties as rows are added. Note that for a Youden design, the b columns and v treatments are in an SBIBD arrangement with parameters v=b, k=r, and λ.     

A consistent system of conditional probabilities which is not compatible with any random field

A consistent, Markovian family of conditional densities is constructed which is not compatible with any random field.     

Geostochastic calculus

A stochastic calculus for a family of continuous measure-valued Markov processes is developed. Such processes arise naturally in the construction of stochastic models of spatially distributed populations. The stochastic calculus is a tool whereby a class of density-dependent models can be studied in terms of the multiplicative measure diffusion process. In this paper the stochastic integral is introduced in the space-time setting and a Cameron-Martin-Girsanov theorem is established.     

强势开端Ⅴ：内容、特点及启示

从幼儿园过渡到小学是所有儿童必须面临的一个巨大跨越。研究表明,如果幼儿教育与小学教育之间没有良好的衔接与过渡,这些“优势”将在小学第一年消失,或将不能在小学教育阶段保持。强势开端Ⅴ聚焦幼小衔接,从组织与管理、教师专业发展衔接、课程与教学衔接、儿童发展衔接方面的举措进行研究。通过对这些举措的介绍分析,提出了启动幼小衔接专项教师培训,强调学校为儿童入学做好准备,注重多方利益主体协同共育几点借鉴思路。     

A Markov regime‐switching model for crude‐oil markets: Comparison of composite likelihood and full likelihood

We use the two‐state Markov regime‐switching model to explain the behaviour of the WTI crude‐oil spot prices from January 1986 to February 2012. We investigated the use of methods based on the composite likelihood and the full likelihood. We found that the composite‐likelihood approach can better capture the general structural changes in world oil prices. The two‐state Markov regime‐switching model based on the composite‐likelihood approach closely depicts the cycles of the two postulated states: fall and rise. These two states persist for on average 8 and 15 months, which matches the observed cycles during the period. According to the fitted model, drops in oil prices are more volatile than rises. We believe that this information can be useful for financial officers working in related areas. The model based on the full‐likelihood approach was less satisfactory. We attribute its failure to the fact that the two‐state Markov regime‐switching model is too rigid and overly simplistic. In comparison, the composite likelihood requires only that the model correctly specifies the joint distribution of two adjacent price changes. Thus, model violations in other areas do not invalidate the results. The Canadian Journal of Statistics 41: 353–367; 2013 © 2013 Statistical Society of Canada     

Robust location estimation with missing data

In a missing data setting, we have a sample in which a vector of explanatory variables ${\bf x}_i$ is observed for every subject i, while scalar responses $y_i$ are missing by happenstance on some individuals. In this work we propose robust estimators of the distribution of the responses assuming missing at random (MAR) data, under a semiparametric regression model. Our approach allows the consistent estimation of any weakly continuous functional of the response's distribution. In particular, strongly consistent estimators of any continuous location functional, such as the median, L‐functionals and M‐functionals, are proposed. A robust fit for the regression model combined with the robust properties of the location functional gives rise to a robust recipe for estimating the location parameter. Robustness is quantified through the breakdown point of the proposed procedure. The asymptotic distribution of the location estimators is also derived. The proofs of the theorems are presented in Supplementary Material available online. The Canadian Journal of Statistics 41: 111–132; 2013 © 2012 Statistical Society of Canada     

Generalized estimating equations for mixtures with varying concentrations

A finite mixture model is considered in which the mixing probabilities vary from observation to observation. A parametric model is assumed for one mixture component distribution, while the others are nonparametric nuisance parameters. Generalized estimating equations (GEE) are proposed for the semi‐parametric estimation. Asymptotic normality of the GEE estimates is demonstrated and the lower bound for their dispersion (asymptotic covariance) matrix is derived. An adaptive technique is developed to derive estimates with nearly optimal small dispersion. An application to the sociological analysis of voting results is discussed. The Canadian Journal of Statistics 41: 217–236; 2013 © 2013 Statistical Society of Canada