生计模式与文化传承——布依族“铜鼓十二则”民歌的文化释读

生计模式是生成民族文化的根基。布依族铜鼓十二则民歌,不仅以唱颂铜鼓为主题,展现铜鼓在布依族社会中的重要文化意义和神圣礼仪,而且详细地叙述了布依族春耕、施肥、管理、秋收等稻作生产生活的文化特点。民歌内容本身既反映了布依族的生计模式,也传承了生产劳动知识及其相关的文化蕴涵。     

Improving response to an establishment survey through the use of web-push data collection methods

ABSTRACT

The web-push method has been shown to increase web response rates in general public surveys. Response rates from two waves of the Emergency Medical Services for Children Program’s Performance Measures Survey, a state-administered establishment survey, were compared to determine if the second wave's revised, centralized implementation strategy improved response rates and consistency across states. The centralized strategy included the web-push design; a carefully timed contacts; and a three-month timeline. The results of the centralized web-push method included a higher overall response rate for a three-month period (81.0% compared to 56.6%) as well as greater consistency in results across states.     

植物园解说系统二维码技术应用与设计

二维码技术是未来改变互联网十大技术之一,随着移动互联网的不断发展和移动智能产品的普及,二维码在植物园解说系统的应用势在必行.针对目前植物园解说系统存在解说方式单一、内容有限、媒介缺失和缺乏统一管理等主要问题,植物园解说系统应用二维码技术,具备包括扩充解说信息容量、优化游园导览线路、促进游客互动交流和实现科普教育等优势,利用新型二维码技术用所带来的新型解说模式,实现植物园解说系统的导游游览、环境教育、科学普及和生态保护等多种功能.     

On Some Two- and Three-dimensional D-minimax Designs for Estimating Slopes of a Third-order Response Surface

Design of experiments is considered for the situation where estimation of the slopes of a response surface is the main interest. Under the D-minimax criterion, the objective is to minimize the generalized variance of the estimated axial slopes at a point maximized over all points in the region of interest in the factor space. For the third-order model over spherical regions, the D-minimax designs are derived in two and three dimensions. The efficiencies of some two- and three-dimensional designs available in the literature are also investigated.     

Covariance Analysis for Split-Plot and Split-Block Designs

Commentaries are informative essays dealing with viewpoints of statistical practice, statistical education, and other topics considered to be of general interest to the broad readership of The American Statistician. Commentaries are similar in spirit to Letters to the Editor, but they involve longer discussions of background, issues, and perspectives. All commentaries will be refereed for their merit and compatibility with these criteria.

Proper methodology for the analysis of covariance for experiments designed in a split-plot or split-block design is not found in the statistical literature. Analyses for these designs are often performed incompletely or even incorrectly. This is especially true when popular statistical computer software packages are used for the analysis of these designs. This article provides several appropriate models, ANOVA tables, and standard errors for comparisons from experiments arranged in a standard split-plot, split–split-plot, or split-block design where a covariate has been measured on the smallest size experimental unit.     

近年来中国刑事证据制度的改革评析——从“两个证据规定”到“刑诉法修正案”

在复杂而多元的中国法律体系中,2010年“两个证据规定”和2012年《刑事诉讼法》的及时出台,不仅引入了证据裁判、程序法定等一系列现代证据法原则,而且确立了质证审查规则和非法证据排除规则,一定程度上提升了我国刑事证据法的人权保障水平和科学性。当然,当前刑事证据法规范也存在规则冲突和细致性不足等缺陷。成效与局限并存与“试错逻辑”和“博弈逻辑”并存有较大的关系,试错逻辑使得一部分改革举措更具有实务可操作性,但博弈逻辑也使得证据规则的制定与落实存在隐忧。     

乡规民约与美政美俗——儒家乡村社会治理中以礼化俗的维度

儒家的理想不仅要让人成其为人,而且还要让社会成其为社会。古代中国,政权马不停蹄地换,甚至还会一时真空,但社会却还能够维持得很有好,人伦秩序一天都不乱,靠的就是教化的力量。在对江北水村余氏耕读堂的田野调查中,发现其祖辈留下来的仁、义、礼、智、信之＂五常＂与忠、孝、恕、廉、耻、温、良、恭、俭、让之＂十德＂,其新修＂族规十二条＂,充满儒家精神与儒家情结,已成为其家风,世代相传,遵循不移,影响族人做人、做事。王阳明的《南赣乡约》,发挥底层精英作用,彰善纠恶,能够使人做＂良善之民＂,营造出＂仁厚之俗＂。相比之下,《万集乡严南村村规民约》则显得简陋、单薄,失之于空洞,儒家乡村治理传统之断裂可见一斑。     

财政政策DSGE模型中国化构建及其应用

事前模拟经济对财政政策变化的反应是检验政策效果的重要手段。本文通过国外经典模型中国化改进,并引入系统财政规则,构建财政政策DSGE模型。在有效税率估算校准与参数贝叶斯估计基础上,给出政策模拟检验应用示例。发现税率冲击效应模拟是税制改革实验的有效方法,资本税率可作为经济结构调整的政策工具,以及当前增加政府支出拉动增长作用微弱等结论。该研究也可为我国DSGE模型研究提供参考。     

需求与回应:一项关于流动儿童适应的再研究

人类有潜能帮助其自动地调适以寻求与环境的平衡,但人类的天赋与环境资源供给的相互作用才是增进人类适应的最终因素。流动儿童在与环境的互动中,资源供给欠缺,影响其适应。为了回应流动儿童的需求,需要从环境层面输入资源,培养其积极的自我认知与情绪体验,帮助其适应以寻求与环境的平衡。由于城乡间的差异给流动儿童带来的不适应、断裂及社会排斥,持续性的多系统整合介入是帮助流动儿童适应的重要因素。     

通货膨胀的宏观经济影响因素分析

本文首先利用贝叶斯向量自回归（BVAR）模型,分析了通货膨胀对宏观经济的冲击响应及其剧烈程度。然后,利用门限模型验证了通货膨胀在不同变量作为门限变量情况下的门限效应。结果表明：通货膨胀对六个因素冲击的反应程度各异,其中,对流动性过剩的反应程度最强,对股票价格、产出缺口和国际油价的反应适度,对实际有效汇率和房价的反应较弱;股票价格、汇率和国际油价具有明显的门限特征,它们分别将通货膨胀分为高低两种区制状态。以上结果有利于我们更好地认识通货膨胀的反应机制,采用合理的经济政策应对通货膨胀。