中国股票市场的"不流动性溢价"现象研究

为了解释中国股票市场出现的“不流动性溢价”现象,根据金融经济学的基本理论:所有承担了系统性金融风险的风险厌恶投资者都要求获得超额的收益。假定收益—风险时间序列服从某个包含流动性补偿的GARCH-M模型;实证检验结果表明理论假设合理,即:股票的超额回报包含不流动性补偿,预期的不流动性与未来市场超额回报正相关,而未预期的不流动性与当期的市场超额回报负相关。     

深沪股指收益率波动研究

文章选取沪、深两市1991年1月1日至2005年2月18日的股票指数作为样本,运用EGARCH(1,1)模型,研究指数日收益率波动的性质特征,并探讨了不同阶段股市对利好消息和利空消息的反映。结果表明:不同阶段的指数收益率序列具有结构特征,各阶段沪、深两市指数收益率均与滞后一阶高度相关,且两市指数收益率均具有信息不对称效果。     

股票市场对技术进步和经济增长的影响分析

运用跨时期固定替代弹性效用函数分析了股票市场的流动性对风险管理、先进技术选择和技术进步的影响,并运用格兰杰因果检验方法,考察中国股票市场与技术进步和经济增长的关系;认为中国股票市场的流动性是经济增长的真实原因,强调现阶段应注重提高中国股票市场的流动性,发挥股票市场在技术进步和经济增长中的作用。     

绿色大学评价指标体系研究

构建评价指标体系是评价绿色大学的前提。采用目标层、准则层、指标层三层结构,从绿色教育、绿色校园、绿色科研、绿色实践、绿色办学5个方面,构建了绿色大学的评价指标体系。本文提出了百分制权重加和评价方法,并将权重加和分值划分为5个等级。     

农产品期货市场持仓成本分析与数学模型的建立

期货交易市场的持仓成本是从事期货经营者所关注的一个重要问题。但是由于期货交易市场的持仓量在交易过程中的不断变化,给计算持仓成本带来一定的难度,本文根据持仓量的变化找出一个简便快捷的计算持仓成本的方法,建立了一个数学模型。     

Psychological mechanisms of investors in Chinese Stock Markets

The study investigated the psychological mechanisms of risky investment behaviors in Chinese Stock Markets. A 42-item questionnaire was developed and distributed to 1547 individual investors recruited by stratified random sampling from Nan Fang Bond Company. A speculative orientation and a low level of risk perception among Chinese investors were revealed. The results also showed that investors were deficient in investment knowledge and skills. Structural equation modeling was used to generate a risk perception-mediated model for investment behaviors. We found that information from organizational/institutional level can precipitate low risk perception and policy-oriented speculation of investors, which could be accounted for by the collectivistic culture in China and may not be beneficial to risk management in Chinese Stock Markets. Suggestions were made regarding the further development of stock markets in China.     

青岛和苏州的人力资本发展状况差异及原因

利用“三普”、“四普”、“五普”数据,采用受教育年限法,对青岛和苏州市人力资本水平及人力资本存量进行了核算,在对核算结果的分析研究中发现:青岛市的人力资本水平高于苏州;青岛市的人力资本存量增长快于苏州。因此建议,苏州市应加大人力资本投资,而青岛市应在人力资本的转化方面加大力度。     

中国银行业竞争力评价指标研究

本文从企业发展和利润角度,提出了商业银行竞争力的定义,并分析了其构成要素。按照WEF竞争力方程的方法,初步提出了评价我国商业银行竞争力的指标体系。     

有限理性投资者的投资偏差问题

股票市场中的个体投资者是有限理性的,并且普遍存在投资偏差问题。这种偏差包括投资者对于股票价格波动的认知偏差、投资者对股票价值的估计偏差、投资者对风险和收益的管理偏差和投资者在股票交易过程中的操作偏差。研究股票市场中个体投资者的投资偏差问题,对提高我国股市投资者的理性程度以及推进我国股票市场的发展都很有裨益。     

The predictability of stock returns - a nonparametric approach

This paper reexamines the predictability of stock returns with a nonparametric model. We first identify, through a set of diagnostic tests, five lagged predictive factors from a linear model. Using these factors, we predict one-month-ahead stock index returns with a nonparametric approach. We find that our nonparametricmodel. We first identify, through a set of diagnostic tests, five lagged predictive factors from a linear model. Using these factors, we predict on -month-ahead stock index returns with a nonparametric approach. We find that our nonparametric model can correctly predict about 74% of stock index return signs. With various ex ante trading rules based on nonparametric predictions and transaction cost schedules, we then compare the performance of "managed" portfolios with that of the buy and hold portfolios. We fmd that the managed portfolios are mean-variance dominant over the buy-and-hold strategies when no or low transaction costs are assumed. When high transaction costs are assumed instead, the mean-variance dominance diminishes However,the Sharpe index of risk-adjusted portfolio performanceindicates that the managed portfolios significantly outperform the buy-and-hold strategies even for the high-transaction cost scenario. We show that the difference in performance between the managed portfolios and the buy-and-hold strategies can be partially explained by the January effect or the small firm effect. In sum, this paper demonstrates the merits of using a nonparametric approach for predicting stock returns and testing market efficiency.