The Multiscale Importance of Road Segments in a Network Disruption Scenario: A Risk‐Based Approach

This article addresses the problem of the multiscale importance of road networks, with the aim of helping to establish a more resilient network in the event of a road disruption scenario. A new model for identifying the most important roads is described and applied on a local and regional scale. The work presented here represents a step forward, since it focuses on the interaction between identifying the most important roads in a network that connect people and health services, the specificity of the natural hazards that threaten the normal functioning of the network, and an assessment of the consequences of three real‐world interruptions from a multiscale perspective. The case studies concern three different past events: road interruptions due to a flood, a forest fire, and a mass movement. On the basis of the results obtained, it is possible to establish the roads for which risk management should be a priority. The multiscale perspective shows that in a road interruption the regional system may have the capacity to reorganize itself, although the interruption may have consequences for local dynamics. Coordination between local and regional scales is therefore important. The model proposed here allows for the scaling of emergency response facilities and human and physical resources. It represents an innovative approach to defining priorities, not only in the prevention phase but also in terms of the response to natural disasters, such as awareness of the consequences of road disruption for the rescue services sent out to local communities.     

Impact of Water Level Rise on Urban Infrastructures: Washington,DC, and Shanghai as Case Studies

The observed global sea level rise owing to climate change, coupled with the potential increase in extreme storms, requires a reexamination of existing infrastructural planning, construction, and management practices. Storm surge shows the effects of rising sea levels. The recent super storms that hit the United States (e.g., Hurricane Katrina in 2005, Sandy in 2012, Harvey and Maria in 2017) and China (e.g., Typhoon Haiyan in 2010) inflicted serious loss of life and property. Water level rise (WLR) of local coastal areas is a combination of sea level rise, storm surge, precipitation, and local land subsidence. Quantitative assessments of the impact of WLR include scenario identification, consequence assessment, vulnerability and flooding assessment, and risk management using inventory of assets from coastal areas, particularly population centers, to manage flooding risk and to enhance infrastructure resilience of coastal cities. This article discusses the impact of WLR on urban infrastructures with case studies of Washington, DC, and Shanghai. Based on the flooding risk analysis under possible scenarios, the property loss for Washington, DC, was evaluated, and the impact on the metro system of Shanghai was examined.     

农村水利设施整体性供给与社会资本的关联效应测度

农村水利设施的有效供给是实现农村治理能力现代化的现实载体。通过梳理公共品整体性供给与社会资本的既有文献,进而以博弈论诠释农村水利设施整体性供给的行为选择。同时建构出社会资本对农村水利设施整体性供给的Logit回归模型,借助于CFPS中关于“农村水利基础设施”的数据证据进行分析。研究发现,社会资本的存量对农村水利基础设施整体性供给起到积极作用,其中社会网络、社会参与以及农户个体特征对整体性供给产生显著影响。为此,通过营造农民整合参与的有利环境,增强农村社会资本的建设,有效培育和发展农村精英,以此来实现农村水利设施整体性供给的有效性。     

大型基础设施项目融资风险动态评价体系研究

提出以“融资风险阶段划分-分担-评价”为主线的融资风险评价体系。基于“新两阶段论”把融资风险划分为缔约阶段融资风险和履约阶段融资风险;针对划分后的融资风险,构建灰色关联度和TOPSIS法相结合的分担模型;利用遗传算法优化支持向量机,在融资风险分担完成后,对融资风险展开评价;以青岛胶州湾海底隧道为例进行实证研究。研究表明:该评价体系实现了“动态性”“针对性”和“准确性”,是科学合理的,可以为大型基础设施项目中各利益攸关方及时准确地掌握各自的融资风险状况提供帮助。     

新常态下交通对中国经济质量增长的贡献

根据交通外部性和非线性理论构建交通门槛模型,并基于1985-2012年中国省际面板数据,采用Hansen门槛效应的内生分组方法检验新常态下交通对中国经济增长质量的贡献。结果显示：新常态下交通对经济增长质量贡献略低于"旧常态",但仍表现出区间"递增"趋势;把新常态下TFP分解为技术进步和技术效率,发现中密度地区要素配置结构已不适应技术进步的需要,高密度地区技术效率相对技术进步对经济增长质量的贡献较低;随着区间交通密度的增加,"政府干预经济"更有效率,但城市化和产业发展对经济增长质量贡献由正转负。为进一步提升新常态下交通对中国经济增长质量的贡献,应定向适度加大"中密度地区"交通投资力度,助其跳出"低增长陷阱";借助信息化、智能化手段引领交通建设转型升级以提高经济运行效率;构建"交通-产业-城镇"三位一体的协同新型综合交通体系;协调好城市化与交通基础设施建设之间的关系。     

Improving Participation in Green Infrastructure Planning

Green infrastructure is a strategic planning concept that is able to address environmental, social and even economic problems by supplying a variety of benefits for society. Especially in times of public financial crises and spatial transformation, it is important to ensure that those services are high quality to guarantee that they will provide the intended benefits by integrating stakeholders’ knowledge and experience into green infrastructure planning. Active stakeholder participation leads to legitimate and informed future planning that accounts for society’s needs. This paper investigates participation approaches of six green infrastructure investments in Belgium, the UK, Germany and the Netherlands. The major aim is to explore how and when participation should take place to optimize participation in green infrastructure planning. This is achieved by surveying the stakeholders involved and conducting stakeholder discussions to identify their views on the participation approaches employed and their integration into the planning process. We found that stakeholders were generally satisfied with how they were involved but desired a broader and more tailored mix of approaches. Furthermore, we found several Arnstein gaps, which lead us to conclude by suggesting recommendations that are helpful for successful participation in green infrastructure planning.     

房地产的可持续发展研究

可持续发展是一种全新的发展观,它要求人类的生产活动既能满足当代人的要求,又不对后代人生存的能力造成威胁。房屋作为人类生产、生活中最重要的一部分,开发商在向社会提供这种特殊的商品时,更应该注重可持续发展的理念。作者通过对房地产可持续发展的理论思考,提出了实现房地产可持续发展的基本思路,并举实例说明了如何在房地产开发的实践中做到可持续发展。     

中国基础设施投资对经济增长波动的冲击效应分析

基础设施是经济发展的重要影响因素，而“基础设施投资促进经济发展”这一主流观点已得到广泛共识，但人们对经济增长与基础设施的探讨仅局限于总量的分析框架，并未对基础设施的类型加以区分，更没发现经济发展的不同阶段对基础设施的需求结构也是不同的。而以“基础设施投资促进经济发展”为出发点，将基础设施投资细分为生产性、生活性、社会性基础设施投资，并分别讨论其对经济的影响。通过邹检验发现：自1994年以来，基础设施投资冲击改变了中国经济增长的特征。其结论是生产性、生活性基础设施对经济增长的影响是明确的、同步的，但社会性基础设施对经济增长的作用是不确定的。因此，加强社会性基础设施投资是一个渐进地逐步推进的过程。     

基础建设与经济状况的相关性研究——以四川省为例

影响四川省经济发展的因素众多,基础设施建设就是其中之一。通过＂了解基础设施建设与经济发展状况的关系＂—＂分析四川省基础设施发展状况＂—＂研究四川省基础设施建设对其经济发展的具体影响＂—＂总结问题并提出相关建议＂这一思路,对四川省的基础设施建设以及经济发展状况逐步进行实证分析,得出两者明显相关的结论,并给出相关政策建议。