嫩模现象：一种新兴青年文化

嫩模现象是个横空出世的新兴青年文化现象，亦是香港普及文化的重要一课。讨论嫩模现象的由来，以及在众声喧哗中隐含的各种文化政治，例如名人概念、青年概念、女性身体等，能检视社会主流论述对此等文化概念的意义转变和规训等。     

美国BIT范本的环境政策考量与变迁及其对中国的启示

美国从1981年启用第一个BIT范本,之后历经数次修订,形成不同版本。其中的环境保护条款从无到有、从简到繁,2012年版本对环境保护又有大力强化。虽然环境例外条款具有法律形态,但因其为缔约方保留环境规制的空间,没有消极影响,其他环境条款尤其专门环境条款则只具有政策形态,对缔约方只有倡导和督促作用,因而也不具有负面意义。基于此,对于中美BIT谈判,中国应该持有像实践WTO规则一样的心态,研究它、接受它,为投身国际实践走出第一步,为将来参与更大范围的规则制定做好准备。     

固定效应部分线性变系数面板模型的快速有效估计

本文将最小二乘支持向量机(LSSVM) 和二次推断函数法(QIF) 相结合，为个体内具有相关结构的固定效应部分线性变系数面板模型提供了一种新的快速估计方法；在一定的正则条件下，论证了参数估计量的渐近正态性和非参数估计量的收敛速度；采用Monte Carlo模拟考察了估计方法在有限样本下的表现并将估计技术应用于现实数据分析。该方法不仅保证了估计的有效性和统计推断力，而且程序运行速度得到较大幅度提升。     

Testing for Serial Independence: Beyond the Portmanteau Approach

Portmanteau tests are typically used to test serial independence even if, by construction, they are generally powerful only in presence of pairwise dependence between lagged variables. In this article, we present a simple statistic defining a new serial independence test, which is able to detect more general forms of dependence. In particular, differently from the Portmanteau tests, the resulting test is powerful also under a dependent process characterized by pairwise independence. A diagram, based on p-values from the proposed test, is introduced to investigate serial dependence. Finally, the effectiveness of the proposal is evaluated in a simulation study and with an application on financial data. Both show that the new test, used in synergy with the existing ones, helps in the identification of the true data-generating process. Supplementary materials for this article are available online.     

Control Chart for Monitoring Autocorrelated Process with Multiple Exogenous Inputs

We propose to use AR-Sieve Bootstrap in the construction of a control chart of an autocorrelated process influenced by multiple exogenous inputs. The control charts are compared with Exponentially Weighted Moving Average (EWMA) control chart through a simulation study. AR-Sieve bootstrap control limits are narrower than EWMA control limits. While the proposed method yields a higher rate of false alarms, it is quick in detecting even minimal structural changes.     

空气污染治理与公众健康———来自“大气十条”政策的证据

为探究《大气污染防治行动计划》 (以下简称“大气十条”)的健康效应,本文基于中国健康与营养调查(CHNS)数据及省级面板数据,利用基于多项Logit模型的双重差分法(Logit-DID),从微观与宏观两个维度考察“大气十条”政策的健康改善效应及其传导机制,并进一步通过异质性分析探讨环境健康不平等的内在原因 研究发现:“大气十条”实施带来显著的健康效应,该政策不仅能有效控制与空气污染高度相关疾病的发病率和死亡占比,还能够间接降低受空气污染影响较小的疾病病情。其作用机理主要通过控制PM2.5浓度改善公众健康,同时该政策对二氧化硫(SO2)、氮氧化物、烟(粉)尘等其 他污染物浓度的下降起到了协同作用。进一步分析显示环境福利不公平的现象依然存在,“大气十条”政 策显著降低了疾病高发人群的发病率,且对女性、城镇居民和低、高年龄段等疾病高发人群的健康影响更显著。本文为政府构建环境健康公平发展路径,推进“健康中国”战略提供了经验证据和政策借鉴。     

Sparse group lasso for multiclass functional logistic regression models

Sparsity-inducing penalties are useful tools for variable selection and are also effective for regression problems where the data are functions. We consider the problem of selecting not only variables but also decision boundaries in multiclass logistic regression models for functional data, using sparse regularization. The parameters of the functional logistic regression model are estimated in the framework of the penalized likelihood method with the sparse group lasso-type penalty, and then tuning parameters for the model are selected using the model selection criterion. The effectiveness of the proposed method is investigated through simulation studies and the analysis of a gene expression data set.     

An m-estimation-based model selection criterion with a data-oriented penalty

In Wu and Zen (1999), a linear model selection procedure based on M-estimation is proposed, which includes many classical model selection criteria as its special cases, and it is shown that the selection procedure is strongly consistent for a variety of penalty functions. In this paper, we will investigate its small sample performances for some choices of fixed penalty functions. It can be seen that the performance varies with the choice of the penalty. Hence, a randomized penalty based on observed data is proposed, which preserves the consistency property and provides improved performance over a fixed choice of penalty functions.     

1906-1908年的郑孝胥与预备立宪公会

考虑到我国未来年度的OD分布预测中的路网构成变化、区域经济布局变动、区域经济增长速度差异等一些具有时变性和特殊性因素，采用在“四阶段法”运量预测基础上改进而成的“三阶段法”进行高速铁路短期客运量预测。首先采用组合预测模型进行趋势运量预测，然后采用多元LOGIT模型进行方式分担，最后采用弹性系数诱增模型进行诱增运量预测。以京沪高铁为例，采用“三阶段法”预测了2014年和2015年京沪高铁本线及跨线单向客流量。     

Deriving Behavior Model Parameters from Survey Data: Self‐Protective Behavior Adoption During the 2009–2010 Influenza A(H1N1) Pandemic

In this paper, we demonstrate how public opinion surveys can be designed to collect information pertinent to computational behavior modeling, and we present the results of a public opinion and behavior survey conducted during the 2009–2010 H1N1 influenza pandemic. The results are used to parameterize the Health Belief Model of individual health‐protective decision making. Survey subjects were asked questions about their perceptions of the then‐circulating influenza and attitudes towards two personal protective behaviors: vaccination and avoidance of crowds. We empirically address two important issues in applying the Health Belief Model of behavior to computational infectious disease simulation: (1) the factors dynamically influencing the states of the Health Belief Model variables and (2) the appropriateness of the Health Belief Model in describing self‐protective behavior in the context of pandemic influenza.