Determinants of fertility levels and change among developed countries: 1958–1978

This article provides a multivariate cross-national test of the hypothesis that national population/family planning policies have effected levels, and changes in fertility in developed nations over the past two decades. Variation is assessed in the total fertility rates (TFR) in 1978, and in the change in these rates between 1958 and 1978, among thirty developed countries. Measures include socioeconomic development, divorce, percent in consensual unions, female labor force participation, abortion policy, and level of contraceptive use by married couples and, government population/family planning policy. Seventy percent of the variation in 1978 TFR is related to the percent contracepting, female labor force, and the population/family planning policy measures. These are the only measures with significant direct effects. A longitudinal analysis of 1958 to 1978 change in TFRs is also conducted. This model increases R² to 75%, and the three independent variables remain significant. Implications of these findings for policy makers interested in increasing or decreasing fertility rates are noted.     

佛山大学教师队伍建设的现状及其优化对策

认为当前佛山大学的发展巳从侧重于面的铺开转入重在提高质量上,对师资的要求大为提高,必须抓紧师资工作提出了要从学校的实际出发,把坚持方向,提高水平,克服断层,调动积极性,作为师资工作的重点。把实行培训与引进并举,重在培训提高;认真加强教师的思想政治教育;大力加强骨干教师和学科带头(人的培养、认真做好青年教师的工作;深化职称改革,实行评聘分开,在职务聘任工作中引进竞争机制等作为提高教师整体水平的师资工作对策。     

The social “R & D” paradigm in child and youth services: Building knowledge convivially

Adaptation of agricultural and industrial research and development models offers new methods for bridging the worlds of research and practice in child and youth services. Social R & D methodologies provide effective means for generating new social technologies because they are product oriented and use a wide array of traditional and nontraditional data sources. This article discusses one social R & D paradigm—Developmental Research and Utilization. Permanency planning and community support systems research are used to illustrate the past and potential application of this methodology to the field of child and youth services.     

Food security, consumption diversification and foreign exchange balances in Indonesia: Results from a multi-commodity simulation

Many countries adopt economic development strategies, within which an important element is the maintenance of low and stable food prices. In Indonesia, this is achieved principally through government subsidies to consumers of imported rice, the total cost of which fluctuates considerably from year to year, depending on world price movements and domestic production performance. Higher and possibly less stable domestic food prices appear inevitable in Indonesia, however, as the spectre of reduced oil revenues increases the government's concern with the cost of its food policy. Results from a stochastic simulation model of the agricultural sector show that the food price risk to which consumers and producers would be exposed in the absence of the stabilizing component of Indonesia's food policy would be considerable, rendering this component an unlikely area for significant change. A viable policy option appears to be the continuance of rice and wheat price stabilization, but with a graduated increase in the relative price of rice, reaching a total of 10% by 1985. Such a policy could result in net self-sufficiency in foreign exchange from staple food trade by 1990 and an improvement in aggregate economic surplus, although the expected decade improvement in food-energy consumption per capita would fall from 10% to 8%.     

高等学校要确保教学工作的中心地位

培养德、智、体等方面全面发展的社会主义事业的建设者和接班人是我国高等学校的根本任务。大连理工大学始终把人才培养作为学校的根本任务,确保教学工作在学校的中心地位,把人才培养质量作为学校的生命线,逐步形成了"领导重视教学、教师热爱教学、政策倾斜教学、经费优先教学、科研促进教学、管理服务教学、后勤保障教学、舆论导向教学、人人关心教学、一切为了育人"的良好局面。     

团办“素质训练学校”与大学生素质训练体系构建的探索

必须以创新的思路推进"大学生素质拓展计划",弘扬高校共青团工作的主旋律.素质拓展的关键在于素质训练体系的构建,把团办"素质训练学校"作为大学生素质训练体系的有效载体和有机组成的探索实践是有益的.湖南师范大学团办"楚源素质训练学校"已经凸显出成功的个性特色课程设置市场化;管理方式弹性化;教学手段多元化;评估机制效能化;强操作性、强实用性与强适应性.加强与企事业单位及相关行业资格培训中心的结合,是改进与完善的二大亮点.     

“人的工作”中激励理念与策略特点分析

坚持"以人为本"的管理理念,运用各种激励手段激发教师的积极性和创造力,吸引和稳定教师队伍是高校"人的工作"的重要内容.本文以江苏工业学院"人的工作"的实践创新活动为例,从六个方面详细分析了"人的工作"中激励理念和激励手段的运用.     

Commodity price stabilization models: A review and appraisal

This paper is designed to bring into focus the numerous modeling attempts to analyze commodity price stabilization that have recently appeared. The studies examined begin with the Waugh-Oi-Massell framework and advance to econometric commodity modeling. Such a critique is considered necessary: None of the studies examined has overcome the myriad of problems that analysts have pointed out as essential for assessing the welfare outcomes of price stabilization schemes. As a consequence, stabilization analyses for similar commodities have produced conflicting results regarding predicted welfare outcome. The present appraisal attempts to provide a unity of direction to this work by (1) comparing recieved studies of a theoretical, empirical, and econometric modeling nature, and (2) suggesting possibilities for improving modeling analyses.     

The goal-oriented approach to evaluation: Critique and case study from drug abuse treatment

The specification and measurement of program goals remains central to most evaluation research strategies, yet procedures for implementing this approach are not well-articulated. It is the purpose of this discussion to describe a stepwise procedure for programmatic goal setting and monitoring used in a demonstration drug treatment program for women. Three implementation steps are described: (a) goal setting, (b) checking for consistency, (c) monitoring and feedback. The advantages and limitations of this approach are discussed and useful complementary measurement strategies are suggested.     

Resource reallocation under alternative trade regimes: A simulation of Turkey's entry into the EEC

A general equilibrium model that is applicable for simulating the directions in which resources would be reallocated under alternative trade regimes, in particular, a free trade regime, is developed and applied to the Turkish economy. Because of the likelihood that Turkey will gain full entry into the EEC, the model is also used to identify sectors in which Turkey may have a comparative advantage relative to the EEC countries and to estimate magnitudes of static gains from full entry. To provide some tests of important generalizations from the theory of customs unions, these estimates of static gains are compared with some estimates of total welfare effects of the entry of the United Kingdom into the EEC.