Comparison of the effectiveness of forecasts obtained by means of selected probability functions with respect to forecast error distributions

The forecasting of sales in a company is one of the crucial challenges that must be faced. Nowadays, there is a large spectrum of methods that enable making reliable forecasts. However, sometimes the nature of time series excludes many well-known and widely used forecasting methods (e.g., econometric models). Therefore, the authors decided to forecast on the basis of a seasonally adjusted median of selected probability distributions. The obtained forecasts were verified by means of distributions of the Theil U² coefficient and unbiasedness coefficient.     

On extreme order statistics from heterogeneous beta distributions with applications

This paper treats the problem of stochastic comparisons for the extreme order statistics arising from heterogeneous beta distributions. Some sufficient conditions involved in majorization-type partial orders are provided for comparing the extreme order statistics in the sense of various magnitude orderings including the likelihood ratio order, the reversed hazard rate order, the usual stochastic order, and the usual multivariate stochastic order. The results established here strengthen and extend those including Kochar and Xu (2007 Kochar, S.C., Xu, M. (2007). Stochastic comparisons of parallel systems when components have proportional hazard rates. Probab. Eng. Inf. Sci. 21:597–609.[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]), Mao and Hu (2010 Mao, T., Hu, T. (2010). Equivalent characterizations on orderings of order statistics and sample ranges. Probab. Eng. Inf. Sci. 24:245–262.[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]), Balakrishnan et al. (2014 Balakrishnan, N., Barmalzan, G., Haidari, A. (2014). On usual multivariate stochastic ordering of order statistics from heterogeneous beta variables. J. Multivariate Anal. 127:147–150.[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]), and Torrado (2015 Torrado, N. (2015). On magnitude orderings between smallest order statistics from heterogeneous beta distributions. J. Math. Anal. Appl. 426:824–838.[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]). A real application in system assembly and some numerical examples are also presented to illustrate the theoretical results.     

Classification with minimum ambiguity under distribution heterogeneity

The traditional classification is based on the assumption that distribution of indicator variable X in one class is homogeneous. However, when data in one class comes from heterogeneous distribution, the likelihood ratio of two classes is not unique. In this paper, we construct the classification via an ambiguity criterion for the case of distribution heterogeneity of X in a single class. The separated historical data in each situation are used to estimate the thresholds respectively. The final boundary is chosen as the maximum and minimum thresholds from all situations. Our approach obtains the minimum ambiguity with a high classification accuracy allowing for a precise decision. In addition, nonparametric estimation of the classification region and theoretical properties are derived. Simulation study and real data analysis are reported to demonstrate the effectiveness of our method.     

明末到民国时期康区宗教性集会与集市之关系考察——以甘孜镇为例

宗教性集会是藏传佛教传统文化的重要内容,既有宗教和文化娱乐的功能,还具有经济功能--为剩余产品的交换提供时空条件.这样,借助宗教性集会形成藏区集市.文章以甘孜镇宗教性集会、集市为例,简要探讨明末到民国时期这一时间段内,康区宗教性集会与集市的关系及其特点.     

以知识管理解决政府信息失真问题的对策与建议

解决政府信息失真的问题,是提高政府管理能力和管理效率的重要途径。要从根本上真正解决政府信息失真的问题,光靠技术上的信息管理是不够的。文章指出运用知识管理理论来解决政府信息失真问题可能是一条有效途径,运用知识管理理论,建立起学习型政府,明确以知识管理解决政府信息问题的原则,并采取一系列切实有效的对策和措施从根本上解决政府信息失真。     

模糊学与模糊美学的现状与未来

作为观察世界的基本方法之一 ,模糊学是针对事物的模糊性而产生的。它和精确方法并不冲突 ,而是各自都有自己的范围。从某种角度上说 ,模糊方法是精确方法的沿伸和补充。受模糊学方法启发而产生的模糊美学 ,不但对于美学 ,对其它人文社会科学无疑也有十分积极的影响 ,因为它出现的本身就具有不可忽视的方法论意义。作为一门新学科、自然还需要不断完善 ,还需要多种学科的通力协作     

Who Is the Boss and Who Is Not? Accuracy of Judging Status

We investigated whether people were accurate at judging other people's status, what behavioral and appearance cues they relied on when assessing status, whether the way those cues were used was accurate, and whether target gender affected any of the results. Targets (N = 48) were university employees (faculty and staff) who were photographed while interacting with a coworker. One sample of perceivers (66 females, 42 males) rated the relative status of the two people in the photograph to each other, and another sample (60 females and males) rated each target in the photograph on status. Additionally, an array of behavioral and appearance cues of targets in the photograph was assessed. Results showed that (1) people were able to assess status in others, (2) the cues they used to assess female and male targets were somewhat different, and (3) how much people relied on specific cues corresponded to how status was expressed in these cues.     

多传感器系统的灵敏度、选择性与精度

对多传感器系统预处理部分的灵敏度、选择性、精度及分离性作了全面分析，并引用矩阵范数证明了估计精度和分离性的上界。这些上界揭示了精度和分离性与设计阵的条件数［Ｃｏｎｄ（Ｂ）］以及设计阵偏离值δＢ和随机变量ε之间的关系。这表明，欲提高多传感器系统的估计精度，可通过控制Ｃｏｎｄ（Ｂ）、δＢ和ε来实现     

关于双销定位中工件转角定位精度的研究

本文就削边销及其配合孔的直径与工件最大转角误差的关系进行了分析计算。结果表明：对于有较高转角定位精度要求的工件，在保证原有孔、销配合精度不变的前提下，适当加大削边销与其配合孔的直径，可以减小转角误差，提高定位精度；对于转角定位精度要求一般的工件，加大削边销与其配合孔的直径，可在不降低转角定位精度的情况下，成倍地增加销间公差，从而使夹具易于制造，降低了夹具的制造成本。     

加强教代会建设 维护教职工合法权益

本文从工会的基本职责谈起,探讨了高校工会履行维权职责的必要性,提出要建立畅通的维权渠道,指出教代会是高校工会维护教职工合法权益的重要手段,因此要提高对教代会的认识,建立制度,落实职权,充分发挥高校教代会的作用。