Bayesian mixture modeling for spatial Poisson process intensities,with applications to extreme value analysis

We propose a method for the analysis of a spatial point pattern, which is assumed to arise as a set of observations from a spatial nonhomogeneous Poisson process. The spatial point pattern is observed in a bounded region, which, for most applications, is taken to be a rectangle in the space where the process is defined. The method is based on modeling a density function, defined on this bounded region, that is directly related with the intensity function of the Poisson process. We develop a flexible nonparametric mixture model for this density using a bivariate Beta distribution for the mixture kernel and a Dirichlet process prior for the mixing distribution. Using posterior simulation methods, we obtain full inference for the intensity function and any other functional of the process that might be of interest. We discuss applications to problems where inference for clustering in the spatial point pattern is of interest. Moreover, we consider applications of the methodology to extreme value analysis problems. We illustrate the modeling approach with three previously published data sets. Two of the data sets are from forestry and consist of locations of trees. The third data set consists of extremes from the Dow Jones index over a period of 1303 days.     

THE EURO AND THE GEOGRAPHY OF INTERNATIONAL DEBT FLOWS

Greater financial integration between core and peripheral European Monetary Union (EMU) members not only had an effect on both sets of countries but also spilled over beyond the euro area. Lower interest rates allowed peripheral countries to run bigger deficits, which inflated their economies by allowing credit booms. Core EMU countries took on extra foreign leverage to expose themselves to the peripherals. We present a stylized model that illustrates possible mechanisms for these developments. We then analyze the geography of international debt flows using multiple data sources and provide evidence that after the euro's introduction, core EMU countries increased their borrowing from outside of the EMU and their lending to the EMU periphery. Moreover, we present evidence that large core EMU banks' lending to periphery borrowers was linked to their borrowing from outside of the euro area.     

自动窗帘远程控制系统

针对目前自动窗帘需要通过按钮或遥控器且只能实现近程控制的现状,提出了一种以STM32F103芯片为核心, 结合Wi-Fi通信技术和互联网技术,能够简单有效地对自动窗帘进行远程控制的解决方案。方案采用模块化的设计思 路,重点分析了系统无线通信模块、继电器模块、按键模块、电源保护和电平转换模块的设计过程,介绍了系统的基本工 作原理和操作方法,设计了基于TCP通信协议的服务端和客户端软件以通过互联网或者个人移动设备实现窗帘的远程 控制。实际结果表明,该方案可以应用于家居或办公环境,具有稳定性高、操作简单等特点。     

基于分布式结构的铁路工程建设信息管理系统

为适应铁路工程建设中信息管理的要求 ,在现代铁路建设中引入BPR、MRP等先进管理思想 ,以WindowsDNA技术设计开发出一种基于网络的信息管理系统 ,系统采用了全局数据库管理系统结构 ,降低了系统的构建及维护成本。最后 ,给出了系统的物料管理子系统的逻辑结构示意图 ,并列出构建该系统的主要程序段。     

从ERP到SCM--我国中小企业发展道路的思考

ERP是上个世纪90年代兴起的一种管理模式,但由于我国中小企业不都具备导入ERP的条件以及ERP存在的先天缺陷使其并不完全适合我国所有中小企业的发展,在这方面,SCM为我国中小企业的发展提供了一种全新的管理思路。     

专业外贸企业供应链管理战略研究

本文从分析我国专业外贸企业困境和机遇、劣势和优势入手,提出专业外贸企业实施供应链管理战略的必要性和符合其转变经营模式的供应链管理战略模型,进一步提出了打造专业外贸企业精益敏捷供应链的具体对策,并就专业外贸企业的供应链管理战略的实施过程、信息化、内部管理和供应链管理战略的持续改进等方面提出相应的建议。     

供应链下建筑业大集团战略营销

从供应链及战略营销的内涵可推供应链管理的过程就是市场营销的过程。文章从战略 合作伙伴关系的建立、供应链成员协同工作、市场营销信息平台的搭建三个方面分析基于供 应链的战略营销,在此基础上着重分析建筑业大集团如何构建战略营销链。     

供应链管理模式下采购策略的分析研究

采购策略的制定对供应链管理起到至关重要的作用。传统物流在供应链管理模式下采购特点发生了根本的变化,包括供应商角色的转变,采购流程增值最大化和库存管理方式的改变。供应链管理模式下制定采购策略应考虑以下问题:关键因素分析、供应商合作关系、精益化库存管理等。这些相关分析可以为企业制定采购策略提供理论基础。     

优化TOPSIS模型在木材加工企业的评价应用——基于SCM视角

考虑到林产品经销商在参与木材加工企业构建供应链时需选取其作为上游合作伙伴,构建包括竞争力、绿色行为、质量、成本和交货期5个一级指标及其14个二级指标的评价指标体系,运用TOPSIS优化改进模型,结合模糊数学评价木材加工企业,最后通过案例证实该评价指标体系的可行性,为林产品经销商提供参考借鉴。     

Does inflation targeting lower inflation and spur growth?

Over the last few decades several countries have turned to inflation targeting as a policy choice for instilling stability into their economies. Prior studies have shown that inflation targeting has reduced inflation in those countries without significantly impacting GDP. This study seeks to improve upon these results by identifying the impact of timing on the policy decision as well as its impact as related to specific regions of the world. The focus is on developing countries across six regions. We find significant regional variation in developing countries in our sample in terms of the direction of changes in inflation following a switch to the inflation targeting policy. Moreover, although the impact of inflation targeting on real GDP is minimal overall, there is a statistically significant increase in real GDP among developing countries in certain regions only, namely, Europe, Latin America, and the Middle East.