Shrinkage confidence intervals for the normal mean: Using a guess for greater efficiency

If the unknown mean of a univariate population is sufficiently close to the value of an initial guess then an appropriate shrinkage estimator has smaller average squared error than the sample mean. This principle has been known for some time, but it does not appear to have found extension to problems of interval estimation. The author presents valid two‐sided 95% and 99% “shrinkage” confidence intervals for the mean of a normal distribution. These intervals are narrower than the usual interval based on the Student distribution when the population mean lies in such an “effective interval.” A reduction of 20% in the mean width of the interval is possible when the population mean is sufficiently close to the value of the guess. The author also describes a modification to existing shrinkage point estimators of the general univariate mean that enables the effective interval to be enlarged.     

Improved model selection criteria for SETAR time series models

The purpose of this paper is threefold. First, we obtain the asymptotic properties of the modified model selection criteria proposed by Hurvich et al. (1990. Improved estimators of Kullback-Leibler information for autoregressive model selection in small samples. Biometrika 77, 709–719) for autoregressive models. Second, we provide some highlights on the better performance of this modified criteria. Third, we extend the modification introduced by these authors to model selection criteria commonly used in the class of self-exciting threshold autoregressive (SETAR) time series models. We show the improvements of the modified criteria in their finite sample performance. In particular, for small and medium sample size the frequency of selecting the true model improves for the consistent criteria and the root mean square error (RMSE) of prediction improves for the efficient criteria. These results are illustrated via simulation with SETAR models in which we assume that the threshold and the parameters are unknown.     

财务治理效率：决定公司治理中的核心地位

财务治理从公司内部治理入手,抓住关键控制权———财权以及关键信息———财务信息和相应的激励机制,在治理目标上超越权力的制衡,对公司的财务决策与经营效率起到有效的制度保障作用,真正体现了治理的效率与公平,决定了其在公司治理中的核心地位。     

Some results on optimality in models with heteroscedastic errors from partial optimum designs

This paper studies optimum designs for linear models when the errors are heteroscedastic. Sufficient conditions are given in order to obtainD-, A- andE-optimum designs for a complete regression model from partial optimum designs for some sub-parameters. A result about optimality for a complete model from the optimality for the submodels is included. Supported by Junta de Andalucía, research group FQM244.     

城乡结合部农村信用社的发展

城乡结合部农村信用社有其特殊的地缘优势,应抓住目前改革机遇,努力提高职工素质、改善办公条件、开发新产品新业务,并建立自己严格的职工考核体系。同时中国人民银行也应加大对农村信用社的扶持力度,共同促进农村信用社的发展。     

我国私人银行业务发展探讨

在西方发达国家已有相当长历史的私人银行业务,适应环境的变迁发生了一系列新的变化;我国商业银行私人银行业务较之西方发达国家明显滞后,但近年来发展的步伐显著加快;蓬勃发展中的我国商业银行私人银行业务目前存在着一些不容忽视的问题;我国私人银行业务正处于成长期,具有无限的市场潜力和广阔的发展前景。     

论中国证券市场监管低效的制度性因素

分析了作为政府强制性的制度安排,中国证券市场在发展过程中产生的市场不规范问题,认为证券市场监管制度的低效运行是问题产生的主要原因。而监管困境的背后则是制度的缺陷,主要表现为两个方面:一是监管当局政策目标与监管目标的冲突;二是以个人和企业信用为核心的信用管理体系的缺失。     

基于顾客维度的质量成本管理探讨

在运用平衡记分卡进行企业绩效评价时，顾客视角是一个重要的衡量标准。成本管理作为影响企业绩效的一个重要因素，更应考虑顾客对质量的经济性要求，在质量管理时应从产品提供者的质量管理转变为产品使用者的质量管理。本文从顾客角度出发，在分析传统质量成本模型局限性的基础上，提出了基于顾客维度的质量成本管理修正模型，并对优化企业质量成本管理的相关策略进行了探讨。     

湖南省科技人力资源现状与使用分析

对湖南科技人力资源的分析 ;分为三个基本层次进行 :一是全省专业技术人员总量 ;二是科技活动人员情况 ;三是R&D人才资源。分别从人员的分布、结构、密度、质量以及人才使用效益等方面进行分析。     

商业银行跨营基金业务的风险与防范

作为混业经营的尝试,商业银行设立基金管理公司,在提升金融效益的同时,伴随而来的是巨大的金融风险。风险主要来自两方面:跨市场经营和分业监管体系.进一步完善资本市场,建立严密的业务隔离机制和联合监管新体制,将是我们防范和化解此类风险的必然选择。