Robust inference for generalized partially linear mixed models that account for censored responses and missing covariates – an application to Arctic data analysis

In this article, we propose a family of bounded influence robust estimates for the parametric and non-parametric components of a generalized partially linear mixed model that are subject to censored responses and missing covariates. The asymptotic properties of the proposed estimates have been looked into. The estimates are obtained by using Monte Carlo expectation–maximization algorithm. An approximate method which reduces the computational time to a great extent is also proposed. A simulation study shows that performances of the two approaches are similar in terms of bias and mean square error. The analysis is illustrated through a study on the effect of environmental factors on the phytoplankton cell count.     

和谐社会语境中法官民事裁判的伦理维度——以对民事司法个案的反思为视角

民事裁判是通过对具有伦理属性的法律规则的适用,来引导对人们的行为,以达到实现伦理生活之目的。从几个与公共道德生活密切相关的司法个案来看,我国民事裁判中存在着违背法律逻辑的道德实用主义倾向和以法律人的意识误读社会生活伦理等问题。在民事裁判中,法官应该从法律与伦理关系的视角,更为深刻地分析法律与道德的分离及其限度,从而作出更有说服力的裁判。     

Convolution power kernels for density estimation

We propose a new type of non-parametric density estimators fitted to random variables with lower or upper-bounded support. To illustrate the method, we focus on nonnegative random variables. The estimators are constructed using kernels which are densities of empirical means of m i.i.d. nonnegative random variables with expectation 1. The exponent m   plays the role of the bandwidth. We study the pointwise mean square error and propose a pointwise adaptive estimator. The risk of the adaptive estimator satisfies an almost oracle inequality. A noteworthy result is that the adaptive rate is in correspondence with the smoothness properties of the unknown density as a function on (0,+∞)$(0,+\infty )$. The adaptive estimators are illustrated on simulated data. We compare our approach with the classical kernel estimators.     

有限理性视角下提升危机决策能力的方法

危机决策能力是政府执政能力的重要组成。有限理性视角下的危机决策强调细分决策问题,避免常规问题分散决策者注意力;强调充分发挥经验、直觉和洞察力等非理性因素,当机立断,最大限度控制危机蔓延;强调从常规制度结构建设入手,解决权力划分灰色区域的问题,不断提高危机决策的能力。     

语言适应论的认识论意义

语言适应论的形成和发展,极大地丰富了语用学的研究思想。它的认识论意义在于：语言适应论在很大程度上体现了“满意决策”理论的“有限理性”思想与复杂适应系统（CAS）理论的“适应性”思想。它充分考虑到语言使用过程中的确定性与不确定性、偶然性与必然性、适应性与复杂性之间的相互作用,不仅超越了传统语用学思想与经典完美理性观,而且建构了语用学新的研究范式。     

Citizenship Consciousness,Nonbounded Solidarity,and Social Justice

This article analyzes the concepts of bounded and nonbounded solidarity. It first reviews some fundamental propositions from the sociological literature and then looks at Amnesty International's conception of solidarity. A third part discusses solidarity as it applies to social work with groups. The conclusion raises five questions social workers need to address to make social justice a standard part of social group work theory and practice.     

Bounded Memory and Biases in Information Processing

Before choosing among two actions with state‐dependent payoffs, a Bayesian decision‐maker with a finite memory sees a sequence of informative signals, ending each period with fixed chance. He summarizes information observed with a finite‐state automaton. I characterize the optimal protocol as an equilibrium of a dynamic game of imperfect recall; a new player runs each memory state each period. Players act as if maximizing expected payoffs in a common finite action decision problem. I characterize equilibrium play with many multinomial signals. The optimal protocol rationalizes many behavioral phenomena, like “stickiness,” salience, confirmation bias, and belief polarization.     

Stochastic Choice and Consideration Sets

We model a boundedly rational agent who suffers from limited attention. The agent considers each feasible alternative with a given (unobservable) probability, the attention parameter, and then chooses the alternative that maximizes a preference relation within the set of considered alternatives. We show that this random choice rule is the only one for which the impact of removing an alternative on the choice probability of any other alternative is asymmetric and menu independent. Both the preference relation and the attention parameters are identified uniquely by stochastic choice data.     

基于有限知识和理性的双寡头战略定产纳什均衡问题研究

经典古诺寡头模型以及目前相关的寡头定产竞争模型最致命的缺陷是对寡头博弈目标的假设、时序假设、有限理性与知识的假设与现实严重不符.本文依据新的博弈条件假设,构建了一种对现实决策情形具有较强的普适性的描述性博弈结构模型.该模型能够对现实中的主导与从属型厂商之间、存在先知先觉博弈者的战略定产决策问题进行很好地描述,且经证明经典古诺博弈模型是该模型的一种特例.在此基础上,本文证明了:一般情况下,斗争策略是基于战略利益的双寡头定产竞争的纳什均衡策略,并找到了双寡头战略调整的聚点均衡;发现了:存在战略扩展阻尼条件的先期决策寡头的阻尼纳什均衡,并给出了该问题的构造性的证明和仿真算例.