新世纪反观历史小说《李自成》

《李自成》是当代长篇历史小说中的一个光辉闪耀点,它的不少经验做法,如"深入历史,跳出历史"的创作观、"单元共同体"的结构艺术、"生活化"的艺术描写等,丰富了我国历史小说的艺术宝库,深刻地影响了继姚雪垠之后的好几代历史小说作家。尽管它在人物塑造方面间杂着某些过于理想化的痕迹,艺术处理上枝蔓松散的缺点也比较明显,但它的开拓之功是无可抹煞的。笔者拟分析和反思《李自成》,力求给这部刚竣工的当代长篇历史小说的开山之作以客观的评价。     

Characterization of discrete populations through conditional expectations of order statistics

In this paper we give some properties of the expected values of any order statistic when one of its adjacent order statistics is known (order mean function) from a sequence of sizen of independent and identically distributed random variables with discrete distribution. Furthermore, we obtain the explicit expressions of the distribution from these order mean functions, and finally, we show the necessary and sufficient conditions for any real function to be an order mean function. We also add some examples of characterization of discrete distributions from the order mean functions. Partially supported by Consejería de Cultura y Educación (C.A.R.M.), under Grant PIB 95/90.     

清人对《儒林外史》人物原型及情节本事的考据--纪念吴敬梓诞辰三百周年

清代同治(1862-1874)年间,受"乾嘉学派"学风的影响,一些学人以考据的方式来解读《儒林外史》,指认出一些人物原型与情节本事,其代表人物有金和、张文虎、平步青等.本文扫描了他们对《儒林外史》考据的发展轨迹;认真辨析了他们考据的结论是否符合作者的原意和作者的实际,从而对他们在《儒林外史》研究史上的地位进行了客观公允的评价.     

二甘醇二苯磺酸酯与二甘醇二苯醚的合成与表征

从二甘醇开始,经二甘醇二苯磺酸酯合成了二甘醇二苯醚.在中间体二甘醇二苯磺酸酯的合成中,用苯磺酰氯代替传统的对甲基苯磺酰氯作磺酰化试剂,用氯仿作稀释剂以控制催化剂吡啶的恰当使用量,确定了反应的最佳物料配比、反应温度和反应时间,二甘醇二苯磺酸酯的收率达84.5%,与二甘醇二对甲基苯磺酸酯的合成相比,产率提高了 10%以上,成本降低了8%-10%.在二甘醇二苯醚的合成中,增设分水装置以提高酚钠和醚的生成率,用正戊醇代替传统的正丁醇作溶剂,二甘醇二苯醚的收率达到87.6%,比通过Williamson反应的合成产率略高,反应时间缩短6 h.用显微照相、薄层色谱、红外光谱、紫外光谱、元素分析等技术对两种产物的性质、状态进行了系统研究.     

论识别冲突问题

识别问题是国际私法中的一个基本问题。依不同国家的法律观念进行识别 ,会导致适用不同的冲突规范和不同的准据法的结果 ,此即识别冲突。本文通过对识别冲突及其解决方法的分析比较 ,提出了我国在解决识别冲突时应持的态度与做法。     

Properties of the elasticity of a continuous random variable. A special look at its behavior and speed of change

Belzunce et al. (1995 Belzunce, F., Candel, J., Ruiz, J.M. (1995). Ordering of truncated distributions through concentration curves. Sankhya 57:375–383. [Google Scholar]) define the elasticity for non negative random variables as the reversed proportional failure rate (RPFR). Veres-Ferrer and Pavía (2012 Veres-Ferrer, E.J., Pavía, J.M. (2012). La elasticidad: una nueva herramienta para caracterizar distribuciones de probabilidad. Rect@ 13:145–158. [Google Scholar], 2014b Veres-Ferrer, E.J., Pavía, J.M. (2014b). On the relationship between the reversed hazard rate and elasticity. Stat. Pap. 55:275–284.[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) interpret it in economic terms, extending its definition to variables that can also take negative values, and briefly present the role of elasticity in characterizing probability distributions. This paper highlights a set of properties demonstrated by elasticity, which shows many similar properties to the reverse hazard function. This paper pays particular attention to studying the increase/decrease and the speed of change of the elasticity function. These are important properties because of the characterizing role of elasticity, which makes it possible to introduce our hypotheses and knowledge about the random process in a more meaningful and intuitive way. As a general rule, it is observed the need for distinguishing between positive and negative areas of the support.     

A Case Study Evaluating the Risk of Infection from Middle Eastern Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus (MERS‐CoV) in a Hospital Setting Through Bioaerosols

Middle Eastern respiratory syndrome, an emerging viral infection with a global case fatality rate of 35.5%, caused major outbreaks first in 2012 and 2015, though new cases are continuously reported around the world. Transmission is believed to mainly occur in healthcare settings through aerosolized particles. This study uses Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment to develop a generalizable model that can assist with interpreting reported outbreak data or predict risk of infection with or without the recommended strategies. The exposure scenario includes a single index patient emitting virus‐containing aerosols into the air by coughing, leading to short‐ and long‐range airborne exposures for other patients in the same room, nurses, healthcare workers, and family visitors. Aerosol transport modeling was coupled with Monte Carlo simulation to evaluate the risk of MERS illness for the exposed population. Results from a typical scenario show the daily mean risk of infection to be the highest for the nurses and healthcare workers (8.49 × 10^?4 and 7.91 × 10^?4, respectively), and the lowest for family visitors and patients staying in the same room (3.12 × 10^?4 and 1.29 × 10^?4, respectively). Sensitivity analysis indicates that more than 90% of the uncertainty in the risk characterization is due to the viral concentration in saliva. Assessment of risk interventions showed that respiratory masks were found to have a greater effect in reducing the risks for all the groups evaluated (>90% risk reduction), while increasing the air exchange was effective for the other patients in the same room only (up to 58% risk reduction).     

爱尔杰小说中的人物塑造与“美国梦”主题阐释

霍瑞修·爱尔杰毕生创作了百余部“从乞儿到王子”式青少年励志作品，塑造了一大批对美国社会和传统文化影响颇深的人物形象。他们有的是性格单一、纯粹的扁平静态人物，有的是性格复杂、多变的圆形动态人物；还有的两类性格兼而有之。爱尔杰通过塑造一系列圆润丰满的人物形象，凸显和传递了“从乞儿到王子”式“美国梦”主题，使其蕴含的正能量成为影响和激励世代美国青少年乐观向上、不懈努力的精神食粮。     

Expert Views on Biological Threat Characterization for the U.S. Government: A Delphi Study

Biological threat characterization (BTC) involves laboratory research conducted for the purpose of biological defense. BTC research is important for improving biological risk assessment and informing resource prioritization. However, there are also risks involved in BTC work, including potential for escape from the laboratory or the misuse of research results. Using a modified Delphi study to gather opinions from U.S. experts in biosecurity and biodefense, this analysis explores what principles and safeguards can maximize the benefits of BTC research and ensure that it is conducted safely and securely. Delphi participants were asked to give their opinions about the need for BTC research by the U.S. government (USG); risks of conducting this research; rules or guidelines that should be in place to ensure that the work is safe and accurate; components of an effective review and prioritization process; rules for when characterization of a pathogen can be discontinued; and recommendations about who in the USG should be responsible for BTC prioritization decisions. The findings from this research reinforce the need for BTC research at the federal level as well as a need for continued review and oversight of this research to maximize its effectiveness and reduce the risks involved. It also demonstrates the need for further discussion of what would constitute a “red line” for biothreat characterization research—research that should not be performed for safety, ethical, or practical reasons—and guidelines for when there is sufficient research in a given topic area so that the research can be considered completed.     

区域外部性问题表征及内部化思考

由于发展机会占用差异、资源及要素占用差异以及区域行业区别差异等原因,使得区域外部性也成为当前经济发展过程中的一个突出问题,主要表现为对资源的不均衡吸引和占用、政府干预过程中显现的外部化、产业结构不同所引致的区域外部化和其他方面。文章在对这些表现特征进行分析的基础上,提出了区域外部性内部化的基本模式和对策建议。