休谟与启蒙运动——基于《人性论》引言的思想史考察

当前对休谟的研究常把他和启蒙运动相隔裂.通过对休谟代表性著作《人性论》引言的分析,可以发现他和法国启蒙思想家共享认识世界的“力学模式”和实验方法,都试图将当时在英格兰兴起的“自然哲学”应用于人类境况,都致力于用对人类生活有用的经验研究所产生的新理论代替传统形而上学.同时,休谟对经验主义方法自身的局限有着更为健全的认识,主张在经验和可观察现象范围内的实验方法.这一认识在我们反思启蒙时极富价值.     

A likelihood ratio test to discriminate exponential–Poisson and gamma distributions

The exponential–Poisson (EP) distribution with scale and shape parameters β>0 and λ∈?, respectively, is a lifetime distribution obtained by mixing exponential and zero-truncated Poisson models. The EP distribution has been a good alternative to the gamma distribution for modelling lifetime, reliability and time intervals of successive natural disasters. Both EP and gamma distributions have some similarities and properties in common, for example, their densities may be strictly decreasing or unimodal, and their hazard rate functions may be decreasing, increasing or constant depending on their shape parameters. On the other hand, the EP distribution has several interesting applications based on stochastic representations involving maximum and minimum of iid exponential variables (with random sample size) which make it of distinguishable scientific importance from the gamma distribution. Given the similarities and different scientific relevance between these models, one question of interest is how to discriminate them. With this in mind, we propose a likelihood ratio test based on Cox's statistic to discriminate the EP and gamma distributions. The asymptotic distribution of the normalized logarithm of the ratio of the maximized likelihoods under two null hypotheses – data come from EP or gamma distributions – is provided. With this, we obtain the probabilities of correct selection. Hence, we propose to choose the model that maximizes the probability of correct selection (PCS). We also determinate the minimum sample size required to discriminate the EP and gamma distributions when the PCS and a given tolerance level based on some distance are before stated. A simulation study to evaluate the accuracy of the asymptotic probabilities of correct selection is also presented. The paper is motivated by two applications to real data sets.     

Inference for quantile measures of kurtosis,peakedness, and tail weight

Insight into measures of peakedness, heavy-tailedness, and kurtosis can be gained by studying Ruppert’s ratios of interquantile ranges. They are not only monotone in Horn’s measure of peakedness when applied to the central portion of the population, but also monotone in the practical tail-index of Morgenthaler and Tukey, when applied to the tails. Non-parametric confidence intervals are found for Ruppert’s ratios, and sample sizes required to obtain such intervals for a pre-specified relative width and level are provided. In addition, the empirical power of distribution-free tests for peakedness and bimodality are found for some symmetric distributions.     

That's My Art: A Case Study on Children's Views of Cultural Policy

How do children experience a participatory TV cultural policy project and, related to that, which views do they share on cultural policy matters? These questions guided a case study on a TV show aired on the Flemish children's public service channel, which staged children as cultural experts. Although the programme was presented as a participatory project, we found that the children's views were minimally involved in the production process. The children also expressed concerns about how (their) art and cultural practices were represented. Yet, from a cultural policy perspective, the children accepted adults’ authority in art and cultural matters.     

Testing Wagner's Law in India: A cointegration and causality analysis

The present study empirically analyzes the validity of Wagner's Law for Indian economy. With the use of annual time series data from 1970–71 to 2013–14, all the six versions of Wagner's Law have been analyzed to test the relationship between government expenditure and gross domestic product. Wagner's Law states that the economic growth is the causative factor of the growth of the public expenditure. The study applied the unit root test and cointegration test to find the long-run relationship between government expenditure and gross domestic product. The present study employed the various econometric techniques such as unit root test, cointegration, and causality analysis for empirical analysis. The empirical analysis under study inferred mixed results of Wagner's Law for Indian economy, where four versions, namely Peacock, Gupta, Guffman, and Musgrave, found valid for Indian economy. The study concluded that the Wagner's Law is valid for the Indian economy except the Pryor and Mann Versions of the Wagner's Law.     

论党的群众工作优良传统与社会工作创新

群众工作是我党的优良传统和政治优势,社会工作是解决社会问题的重要手段,在社会主义全面深化改革阶段,面临新的社会形势,群众工作与社会工作迫切需要创新。将党的群众工作优良传统与社会工作创新结合起来探讨,一方面有利于群众工作的创新;另一方面有利于社会工作的本土化发展。     

论杀人犯罪被害人与刑事司法参与

杀人犯罪被害人是指因杀人犯罪行为而遭受直接侵害的自然人。杀人犯罪被害人参与刑事司法，具有重要意义和价值，其途径主要有量刑参与和刑事和解。此外，在被害人具有过错的情况下，其也以独特的方式参与到刑事司法程序之中。     

政治过程视角下的执政党实现人民利益能力建设

实现人民利益有利于执政党的长期执政，而能否实现好人民利益，又要依靠党的执政，依靠党的实现人民利益能力的不断提升。从人民利益实现过程分析，党实现人民利益的能力主要包涵人民利益表达能力、综合能力、决策能力、执行能力以及反馈能力。现阶段执政党要提高实现人民利益能力，需要进一步加强思想建设、组织建设、作风建设以及制度建设，不断开创党的建设这一伟大工程的新局面。     

Young People Leaving Care: Participatory Research to Improve Child Welfare Practices and the Rights of Children and Young People

Abstract

This paper discusses participatory research with young people who are leaving public care in Finland to begin independent lives. The aim of the research, organised by SOS Children's Villages International, was to bring about change in alternative care arrangements, particularly those involving young people's transition to independence. The project used a participatory research design based on employing care-leaving peers as co-researchers. This paper adheres to the methodological principles of empowerment in analysing the personal experiences of young people leaving alternative care with the goal of informing good practice. The findings suggest that the peer research method can be an effective means of empowering young people to develop research skills and to be involved in knowledge production, as well as serving as a means of promoting improved services for “care-leavers”, those young people who are leaving either foster care or institutional care. The participatory and peer research method challenges the traditional understandings of expertise and knowledge production. Although the hierarchy between adult researchers and young people as co-researchers is still evident, the method provides possibilities for better understanding the social- and health-service systems and their challenges and pitfalls from a user's perspective.     

80后农民工的城市就业现状与对策建议

分析了80后农民工在城市的就业特征,主要从四方面提出了对策建议:建立健全80后农民工就业的社会保障机制;改革创新80后农民工就业培训模式;为农民工塑造良好的工作环境;构建农民工双向流迁就业体系。