中国电力消费周期的路径演化识别——基于Markov区制转移模型

基于1980-2016年中国第一产业、第二产业（工业、建筑业）和第三产业的年度电力消费数据,采用H-P滤波技术对中国电力消费的趋势成分和波动成分轨迹进行刻画,运用马尔科夫区制转移[MS（n）-AR（p）]模型分析中国电力消费周期在各区制间的动态转移过程,识别改革开放以来中国电力消费周期的路径演化特征,在此基础上预测未来5年中国电力消费周期的区制分布情况。研究发现:（1）中国电力消费增长率的波动程度自2003年明显缩窄,且从2007年开始进入下行周期。（2）中国电力消费周期具有较强的稳定性,不易向着其收缩期和扩张期跨越。且中国电力消费处于"低速增长区制"的年份往往对应着中国经济发展相对趋缓的大环境。（3）2014-2015年中国电力消费向其收缩期转移的迹象明显,但预测结果表明,未来5年中国电力消费整体上将继续保持稳定增长的趋势。     

精准扶贫的资源配置逻辑与实践困境

扶贫资源的合理配置是确保精准扶贫战略目标顺利实现的关键所在。然而,当前精准扶贫资源在配置的过程中存在着资源的项目化与社会生活的不规则性、政策执行的科层逻辑之间的张力。这一巨大的张力使极具科学性和合法性的程序受到非正式制度的倒逼,从而产生“反科层”的逻辑,进而使精准扶贫资源的配置面临实践的困境。要走出这种困境,精准扶贫资源配置应着力于增强资源配置的灵活性、增强贫困人口自身能力建设和因地制宜地发掘地方优势资源,以激发扶贫对象为主体的内生动力。     

The logic of strategic ignorance

Ignorance and knowledge are often thought of as opposite phenomena. Knowledge is seen as a source of power, and ignorance as a barrier to consolidating authority in political and corporate arenas. This article disputes this, exploring the ways that ignorance serves as a productive asset, helping individuals and institutions to command resources, deny liability in the aftermath of crises, and to assert expertise in the face of unpredictable outcomes. Through a focus on the Food and Drug Administration's licensing of Ketek, an antibiotic drug manufactured by Sanofi-Aventis and linked to liver failure, I suggest that in drug regulation, different actors, from physicians to regulators to manufacturers, often battle over who can attest to the least knowledge of the efficacy and safety of different drugs - a finding that raises new insights about the value of ignorance as an organizational resource.     

The State of Research in Latino Academic Attainment

In this essay, I present an interdisciplinary examination of the state of research in Latino education, addressing not only the cultural forces influencing Latinos’ educational attainment, but also the structural conditions faced by them—as a racialized minority group—throughout their schooling and that have a cumulative effect on their academic attainment. Overall, I suggest that by engaging in a critical review of the literature on Latinos’ educational attainment, the reader will acknowledge that the racially driven hierarchical structural arrangements are highly responsible for the patterns observed.     

A new test for multivariate normality by combining extreme and nonextreme BHEP tests

In this article, we propose a new multiple test procedure for assessing multivariate normality, which combines BHEP (Baringhaus–Henze–Epps–Pulley) tests by considering extreme and nonextreme choices of the tuning parameter in the definition of the BHEP test statistic. Monte Carlo power comparisons indicate that the new test presents a reasonable power against a wide range of alternative distributions, showing itself to be competitive against the most recommended procedures for testing a multivariate hypothesis of normality. We further illustrate the use of the new test for the Fisher Iris dataset.     

A comparison of recent nonparametric methods for testing effects in two-by-two factorial designs

The two-way two-levels crossed factorial design is a commonly used design by practitioners at the exploratory phase of industrial experiments. The F-test in the usual linear model for analysis of variance (ANOVA) is a key instrument to assess the impact of each factor and of their interactions on the response variable. However, if assumptions such as normal distribution and homoscedasticity of errors are violated, the conventional wisdom is to resort to nonparametric tests. Nonparametric methods, rank-based as well as permutation, have been a subject of recent investigations to make them effective in testing the hypotheses of interest and to improve their performance in small sample situations. In this study, we assess the performances of some nonparametric methods and, more importantly, we compare their powers. Specifically, we examine three permutation methods (Constrained Synchronized Permutations, Unconstrained Synchronized Permutations and Wald-Type Permutation Test), a rank-based method (Aligned Rank Transform) and a parametric method (ANOVA-Type Test). In the simulations, we generate datasets with different configurations of distribution of errors, variance, factor's effect and number of replicates. The objective is to elicit practical advice and guides to practitioners regarding the sensitivity of the tests in the various configurations, the conditions under which some tests cannot be used, the tradeoff between power and type I error, and the bias of the power on one main factor analysis due to the presence of effect of the other factor. A dataset from an industrial engineering experiment for thermoformed packaging production is used to illustrate the application of the various methods of analysis, taking into account the power of the test suggested by the objective of the experiment.     

Feminist power and its implications on Uganda’s malaria communication campaign

This paper examines power and its manifestation in Uganda’s “Stop Malaria Campaign.” It specifically questions the apparent radical feminism, which is conceptualized as a quest for power, and how such excesses drive implementation of the campaign. The paper explains data collected through focus group discussions and key informant interviews using feminist communication theory as informed by the critical ideas of feminism and power. These three ideas help to put into perspective: domination of the campaign by one gender, interpretation of the campaign’s objectives to suit that one gender, and communication methods used in the campaign. Analysis of the above three processes shows that men are the weaker gender in the malaria prevention drive, an idea that has clashed with the existing male chauvinism on which several families still thrive in Africa. A view that radical feminism should be seen as an organized form of power that needs to be checked if Uganda’s malaria communication campaign is to be implemented successfully is herein proposed, along with some solutions to the challenges.     

A latent variable model for analyzing mixed longitudinal (k,l)-inflated count and ordinal responses

A random effects model for analyzing mixed longitudinal count and ordinal data is presented where the count response is inflated in two points (k and l) and an (k,l)-Inflated Power series distribution is used as its distribution. A full likelihood-based approach is used to obtain maximum likelihood estimates of parameters of the model. For data with non-ignorable missing values models with probit model for missing mechanism are used.The dependence between longitudinal sequences of responses and inflation parameters are investigated using a random effects approach. Also, to investigate the correlation between mixed ordinal and count responses of each individuals at each time, a shared random effect is used. In order to assess the performance of the model, a simulation study is performed for a case that the count response has (k,l)-Inflated Binomial distribution. Performance comparisons of count-ordinal random effect model, Zero-Inflated ordinal random effects model and (k,l)-Inflated ordinal random effects model are also given. The model is applied to a real social data set from the first two waves of the national longitudinal study of adolescent to adult health (Add Health study). In this data set, the joint responses are the number of days in a month that each individual smoked as the count response and the general health condition of each individual as the ordinal response. For the count response there is incidence of excess values of 0 and 30.     

Confidence interval estimation and hypothesis testing for a common correlation coefficient

Several procedures have been proposed for testing the hypothesis that all off-diagonal elements of the correlation matrix of a multivariate normal distribution are equal. If the hypothesis of equal correlation can be accepted, it is then of interest to estimate and perhaps test hypotheses for the common correlation. In this paper, two versions of five different test statistics are compared via simulation in terms of adequacy of the normal approximation, coverage probabilities of confidence intervals, control of Type I error, and power. The results indicate that two test statistics based on the average of the Fisher z-transforms of the sample correlations should be used in most cases. A statistic based on the sample eigenvalues also gives reasonable results for confidence intervals and lower-tailed tests.     

中华武术散打之局部力量与整体力量解读

散打之力量是散打运动中除运动技术等要素外,非常重要的另一要素,散打之力量在运动中表现出两个方面的应用,即散打之局部力量和整体力量;散打之局部力量和整体力量在比赛中交替展现,正是由于散打之局部力量和整体力量的不停变换使用及不同情况下各种力量共同作用,运动员才能在比赛中赢得胜利。散打之局部力量与整体力量的科学应用与训练不仅塑造了练习者完美的运动身形,而且培养了个人不凡的运动气质,是一项完美的体育运动。