Link-tracing sampling with an initial sequential sample of sites: Estimating the size of a hidden human population

We proposed a modification to the variant of link-tracing sampling suggested by Félix-Medina and Thompson [M.H. Félix-Medina, S.K. Thompson, Combining cluster sampling and link-tracing sampling to estimate the size of hidden populations, Journal of Official Statistics 20 (2004) 19–38] that allows the researcher to have certain control of the final sample size, precision of the estimates or other characteristics of the sample that the researcher is interested in controlling. We achieve this goal by selecting an initial sequential sample of sites instead of an initial simple random sample of sites as those authors suggested. We estimate the population size by means of the maximum likelihood estimators suggested by the above-mentioned authors or by the Bayesian estimators proposed by Félix-Medina and Monjardin [M.H. Félix-Medina, P.E. Monjardin, Combining link-tracing sampling and cluster sampling to estimate the size of hidden populations: A Bayesian-assisted approach, Survey Methodology 32 (2006) 187–195]. Variances are estimated by means of jackknife and bootstrap estimators as well as by the delta estimators proposed in the two above-mentioned papers. Interval estimates of the population size are obtained by means of Wald and bootstrap confidence intervals. The results of an exploratory simulation study indicate good performance of the proposed sampling strategy.     

超越“范式”：国际问题研究的路径探微

当代国际政治理论的发展演变表现出一种对国际政治现象进行多重视角、多种层次研究的趋势，它给予人们的一个重要启示就是，没有一种能够解释一切的理论。但反过来说，不同的理论针对不同的对象也具有各不相同的解释力。我们必须认识到任何单一的理论都不可能解释国家对外行为的全部复杂性，必须提出一种综合的分析框架，结合现实主义、自由主义和建构主义各自精到的阐述，从历史、经济、政治、文化的视角来进行阐述和分析。     

大学英语交际教学法新思考

自20世纪70年代以来，交际教学法已成为国内外语言教学颇受青睐的教学方法。交际教学法主张以具体的交际功能项目为线索来安排教学内容，而不是以语言形式来安排内容，激发学生的学习兴趣，提高了语言运用能力。然而，交际教学法的教材增加了语法学习的困难，为此，同一功能表达形式多样对测试的不利及对教师专业培训要求更高等问题，足以引起英语一线教学同仁们的新思考。     

解读“80后”大学生道德认识矛盾性提高德育效益

为了探索新形势下实施德育的有效途径,提高德育效益,笔者针对“80后”大学生的道德认识进行了问卷抽查。在对调查结果进行综合分析的基础上,认识到：“80后”大学生的道德认识具有矛盾性,并分析了道德认识矛盾性的原因,重点从三个层面提出提高德育效益的途径：第一,社会层面,重构社会高层价值体系;第二,学校层面,要树立全员育人的大德育观念,内容要具有可接受性,方法上要加强情境性教育、体验性教育;第三,大学生要注重自我教育。     

哈贝马斯话语语境中的理想社会

新自由主义、后现代主义是西方20世纪晚期两个非常重要的思想流派。“新自由主义以启蒙的继承者自居，对启蒙和整个社会的现代化表达了一种发自内心的赞美，并从普遍主义出发主张西方社会的现在预示了所有非西方社会的未来。”而“后现代主义则以启蒙的批判者自居，现代化的社会在后现代主义者眼中或者呈现出一片‘白色恐怖’（利奥塔），或者简直就像一座‘大监狱’（福柯）。”哈贝马斯的观点既不同意新自由主义对现代性的那种乐观和肯定的态度，又不同意后现代主义对现代性的那种悲观和否定的态度。他认为，“现代性是一项未竞的事业”。或者说，他的思想始终是在对启蒙的热情赞美和严词谴责之间寻找一个稳固的平衡点。     

内向的小佳如何变成孩子王——幼儿交往发展中的家庭影响因素典型个案研究

交往能力在个体终身成长中的作用显著，家庭是影响幼儿交往能力发展的至关重要的环境。本文通过对一则典型案例的调查访谈，梳理分析，揭示了在一个孩子交往行为发展进程中家庭因素的变化，以及可能对幼儿交往行为造成的影响。鲜活生动的事例便于身处其中的幼儿父母、幼教工作者们对照反思，以获取实用的育儿心得，对培养幼儿交往行为的发展具有一定指导和借鉴意义。     

Home-Based Palliative Care Study

Abstract

Purpose: To examine differences in site of death and costs of services by primary diagnosis for patients receiving home-based palliative care as compared to usual care at the end of life verity of illness, service use, and site of death.

Design and Methods: A nonequivalent group design was employed with 298 terminally ill patients diagnosed with cancer, CHF, or COPD enrolled. The treatment group received an interdisciplinary home-based palliative care program and the comparison group received usual Kaiser Permanente services. Data collected included patient demographics, se-

Results: Among all diseases, patients enrolled in palliative care were more likely to die at home. Enrollment in palliative care was significant associated with cost reductions for patients with cancer, COPD, and CHF. No significant difference was found between diagnostic groups in terms of magnitude of cost savings.

Implications: Provision of interdisciplinary home-based palliative care at end of life can effectively increase the likelihood of dying at home for patients with CHF, COPD, and cancer while realizing significant COSt savings.     

翻译教学应从表层向深层转变

以传授所谓“翻译技巧”为目的的传统教学法在翻译教材和翻译教学中仍很常见，其实它是一种只注意语言的表面现象而忽略了语言实质的翻译教学路径，对提高翻译学习者的翻译能力起不到指导作用。本文根据现代翻译学、语言学及外语教学理论，对传统翻译教学法进行剖析，指出其局限性，并提出翻译教学的新思路和一些建设性意见。     

汉字的表音化取向

长期以来大家都普遍认为汉字属表意体系的方块文字,汉字不是音素文字,但汉字表音的方式仍是十分明显的。它用特殊的形式来表现读音,这就是汉字里占80%以上的形声字。汉字这种形声化的取向从甲骨文开始就表现得极为清晰,经金文、篆文、隶书到今天的简化汉字,汉字表音的取向已经发展成为汉字发展的主流。     

A Semiparametric Approach for Accelerated Failure Time Models with Covariates Subject to Measurement Error

There are relatively few discussions about measurement error in the accelerated failure time (AFT) model, particularly for the semiparametric AFT model. In this article, we propose an adjusted estimation procedure for the semiparametric AFT model with covariates subject to measurement error, based on the profile likelihood approach and simulation and exploration (SIMEX) method. The simulation studies show that the proposed semiparametric SIMEX approach performs well. The proposed approach is applied to a coronary heart disease dataset from the Busselton Health study for illustration.