Adaptive Build-up and Breakdown of Trust: An Agent Based Computational Approach

This article employs Agent-Based Computational Economics (ACE) to investigate whether, and under what conditions, trust is viable in markets. The emergence and breakdown of trust is modeled in a context of multiple buyers and suppliers. Agents develop trust in a partner as a function of observed loyalty. They select partners on the basis of their trust in the partner and potential profit, with adaptive weights. On the basis of realized profits, they adapt the weight they attach to trust relative to profitability, and their own trustworthiness, modeled as a threshold of defection. Trust and loyalty turn out to be viable under fairly general conditions.     

Community Resilience and Decision Theory Challenges for Catastrophic Events

Extreme and catastrophic events pose challenges for normative models of risk management decision making. They invite development of new methods and principles to complement existing normative decision and risk analysis. Because such events are rare, it is difficult to learn about them from experience. They can prompt both too little concern before the fact, and too much after. Emotionally charged and vivid outcomes promote probability neglect and distort risk perceptions. Aversion to acting on uncertain probabilities saps precautionary action; moral hazard distorts incentives to take care; imperfect learning and social adaptation (e.g., herd‐following, group‐think) complicate forecasting and coordination of individual behaviors and undermine prediction, preparation, and insurance of catastrophic events. Such difficulties raise substantial challenges for normative decision theories prescribing how catastrophe risks should be managed. This article summarizes challenges for catastrophic hazards with uncertain or unpredictable frequencies and severities, hard‐to‐envision and incompletely described decision alternatives and consequences, and individual responses that influence each other. Conceptual models and examples clarify where and why new methods are needed to complement traditional normative decision theories for individuals and groups. For example, prospective and retrospective preferences for risk management alternatives may conflict; procedures for combining individual beliefs or preferences can produce collective decisions that no one favors; and individual choices or behaviors in preparing for possible disasters may have no equilibrium. Recent ideas for building “disaster‐resilient” communities can complement traditional normative decision theories, helping to meet the practical need for better ways to manage risks of extreme and catastrophic events.     

从启蒙者到依附者——“17年诗歌”诗人角色的易换

回望17年诗坛,我们在大多数诗歌千篇一律的声音里发现,那个自"五四"以来就置身于"启蒙"潮头的身影,在三十年后竟然成为政策的传声筒、政治的依附者。社会状况、读者对象、诗歌审美标准、诗人心态的改变,及其病态的"先锋情结",是这代诗人们最终选择"依附者"角色的至关重要的因素。     

Complex home care: challenges arising from the blurring of boundaries between family and professional care

Over the last 50 years, increasingly complex care (such as tracheostomy management, dialysis or enteral feeding) has shifted from hospital to home, with a concomitant rise in patient self-management and care given by family members. Recognition of the importance of the contribution of family care to the health system is also growing. This article reports the findings of a New Zealand study which explored the experiences of family carers who manage technical health procedures at home. It then draws attention to some broader issues raised by shifting complex care from professional management in hospital settings to family care at home, namely the ways in which complex home care blurs the boundaries between professional and family care (creating the ambiguous position of the expert carer) and questions of safety and responsibility in family care. We also discuss the implications for policy around family caregiving in New Zealand. Given the potential physical and mental health impacts of caring, it is time for renewed consideration of what family carers should be expected or allowed to manage and how the health system can support them in their important role.     

Generating synthetic data to produce public-use microdata for small geographic areas based on complex sample survey data with application to the National Health Interview Survey

Small area statistics obtained from sample survey data provide a critical source of information used to study health, economic, and sociological trends. However, most large-scale sample surveys are not designed for the purpose of producing small area statistics. Moreover, data disseminators are prevented from releasing public-use microdata for small geographic areas for disclosure reasons; thus, limiting the utility of the data they collect. This research evaluates a synthetic data method, intended for data disseminators, for releasing public-use microdata for small geographic areas based on complex sample survey data. The method replaces all observed survey values with synthetic (or imputed) values generated from a hierarchical Bayesian model that explicitly accounts for complex sample design features, including stratification, clustering, and sampling weights. The method is applied to restricted microdata from the National Health Interview Survey and synthetic data are generated for both sampled and non-sampled small areas. The analytic validity of the resulting small area inferences is assessed by direct comparison with the actual data, a simulation study, and a cross-validation study.     

A Stylistic Analysis of Hemingway’s A Clean,Well-Lighted Place

One important theme of Hemingway＇s A Clean, Well-Lighted Place is the nothingness of life itself, At the beginning of this short story, Hemingway presents a setting--the cafe, which is familiar to us, and then moves our attention to focus on the characters within that setting, The story is told through the dialogues between the two waiters and is in third-person narration, In the following paragraphs we will focus on stylistic characteristics of this short story,     

论海外华人网文中的感伤情结与忧患意识——以“寒胭”作品为例

海外华人的网络写作越来越普遍,大多以非功利的＂民间＂立场、＂性灵性＂写作特点与多元文化视角独树一帜。网名＂寒胭＂者写作中对家国文化传承、城市现代化进程、人性变异与现代人精神实质的追溯与揭示颇具代表性,其感伤情结、家国情怀和忧患意识体现于哀国、殇城、感人、忧世四个方面。此类写作的意义在于,当一个民族身为＂弱国＂的历史未过百年,被强势文化浸濡的现状尚在延续,物质的发展建构在一定道德文明代价的付出之上,而多数人已在现代化进程中麻痹自满时,作为愈是远离而乡情愈重的海外儿女,他们的民族危机意识对＂人的存在＂与＂现代化＂真正涵义的质询与考辨,无论是对于祖国民族道德传承,还是精神物质文明建构,均有着弥足轻重的镜鉴意义。     

弗洛伊德民族心理学思想述论

心理学大师弗洛伊德也是西方民族心理学的奠基者之一,他的俄底普斯情结、图腾与禁忌和民族群体领袖等理论,打开了民族学和心理学交叉研究的大门,对宗教思想和民族心理密切关系的阐释,补充了民族心理学的研究内容。     

基于共引网络理论的产业需求竞争网络

根据2002-2012年北京市投入产出的直接消耗系数,结合共引网络的建模思想,构建一类加权无向网络——产业需求竞争网络,并引入边权、单位权和差异性作为衡量网络中竞争关系的指标。通过研究发现:INCN-BJ网络的边权反映了产业链环节的完善程度,单位权反映了产品部门对产业系统的促进作用,差异性则区分出产业系统中需要加大产业政策指导的落后产品部门。