原则和出路:当代社会阶层变动下的利益关系调整

利益问题是关系到人的生存与发展的根本性问题。改革的过程实际上就是对社会各阶层既得利益的重新分配过程。文章针对当前各社会阶层之间利益冲突日益凸显的现象,以十六大精神为指导,从利益协调的原则和出路两方面着手,提出解决上述问题的思路。     

Quality Management in Multi‐Level Supply Chains with Outsourced Manufacturing

Outsourcing stretches supply chains longer with added contract manufacturers responsible for the manufacturing of parts and final products. Should a firm change its quality management approach as its supply chain becomes longer with outsourced manufacturing? This paper studies a brand owner's optimal choice between two commonly used quality management approaches: an inspection‐based approach and an external failure‐based approach, in two supply chains – a dyadic supply chain and a multi‐level supply chain where the brand owner outsources manufacturing to an independent contract manufacturer. Our study finds that the brand owner's optimal choice between the two quality management approaches could be opposite in the two supply chains. Specifically, we show that if agency costs exist between the contract manufacturer and the brand owner, the brand owner may prefer an inspection‐based approach in the multi‐level supply chain in contrast to preferring an external failure‐based approach in the dyadic supply chain. In particular, inspections can be effective for the brand owner to limit the manufacturer's profit by excluding defective finished products and components, which in turn reduce agency costs in the multi‐level supply chain. Hence, the efficiency of an inspection‐based approach relative to an external failure‐based approach can be higher in the multi‐level supply chain as compared to the dyadic one. Our findings suggest that firms should adjust to changes in supply chain structures and re‐evaluate the efficiencies of different quality management approaches accordingly.     

Competition and Coordination in Two‐Tier Public Service Systems under Government Fiscal Policy

As a result of government budgetary limits and rapid market growth, many public service systems—such as health care—are characterized by extensive customer wait times that have become a serious problem. This problem might be solved by allowing private firms to enter these markets, which would provide customers with a choice between a free (governmental) public service provider (SP) and a fee‐charging (or “toll”) private SP. In such a two‐tier service system, the two SPs are differentiated by service quality and cost efficiency. This study focuses on the competition and coordination issues for two‐tier service systems with customers who are sensitive to both service quality and delay. The free system attempts to maximize its expected total customer utility with limited capacity, whereas the toll system attempts to maximize its profit. Neither goal is aligned with the social welfare goal of the public service. To achieve the social welfare goal, the government plays a crucial role in coordinating the two‐tier service system via the budget, the tradeoff of social members' goals, and tax‐subsidy policies. Using a mixed duopoly game, we establish Nash equilibrium strategies and identify the conditions for the existence of the two‐tier service system. We employ several interesting and counter‐intuitive managerial insights generated by the model to show that the public service can be delivered more efficiently via customer choice and SP competition. In addition, we show that a relatively low tax‐subsidy rate can almost perfectly coordinate the two SPs to achieve most of the maximum possible benefit of the two‐tier service system.     

专家参与危机管理中的信任失灵与策略转换

公众科学知识素养的缺乏,社会功能的分工及科技民主价值观念的形成,决定了专家参与危机管理的必要性。中国危机管理面临着突出的专家信任失灵问题。公众对专家知识期望的理想化、专家自身知识的价值偏向、专家参与机制有效性无法保证、信息公开透明度不够等,从知识论层面与现实层面构成了信任失灵的根源。构建专家信息库、提高言论被“收买”的风险成本、完善良好的沟通机制是重获专家信任权威的有效策略。     

立式盘类转子动平衡机箱体有限元分析

旋转电极式电除尘器出口粉尘体积分数小,可降低PM2.5排放量,是目前新建和改造电除尘器的主流方向之 一,其清灰刷关系到旋转电极式电除尘器的除尘效率和使用寿命,为此搭建了清灰刷失效形式和寿命测试试验装置,其 中机械部分为框架结构,电气部分采用PLC控制,由减速变频电机驱动,最后通过ANSYS Workbench对其主要部件进行 了静态和动态性能分析,结果表明：装置框架的动态特性满足设计要求,不会在工作时引起共振,运行后该装置能够满足 试验工作需要。     

论清末新政失败的原因及其历史启示

《辛丑条约》签订之后,中国社会陷入了民族危机加深和国内阶级矛盾激化的双重困境,清王朝统治出现了功能性障碍,统治危机进一步加深。为了挽救摇摇欲坠的满清政府,以慈禧太后为首的清政府不得不推行改革,史称清末新政。但是事与愿违,它并没有达到挽救清王朝的目的,反而加速了它的灭亡。清末新政的失败是历史必然性和主体选择错误性互相作用的结果,这启示我们改革要想取得胜利,就必须既合乎规律性,也合乎目的性,在尊重历史必然性的前提下,充分发挥主体选择性。     

中药灌肠治疗慢性肾功能衰竭的疗效观察

目的探讨中药灌肠治疗慢性肾功能衰竭(CRF)的临床疗效。方法将60例CRF患者随机分为2组,每组30例。两组均给予优质低蛋白饮食、降血压、调血脂、降血糖、纠正贫血等一体化治疗,观察组在此基础上予以清肾汤灌肠治疗。比较两组临床疗效及血肌酐(Scr)、尿素氮(BUN)水平。结果观察组总有效率显著高于对照组(P0.05)下同,差异有统计学意义;治疗后,两组Scr、BUN水平均较治疗前明显降低(P0.05或P0.01),但观察组降低幅度更为显著。结论中药灌肠可有效降低CRF患者血Scr和BUN水平,提高临床疗效,值得临床推广应用。     

企业人力资源管理实践对跨功能团队创造力的跨层影响

在借助团队认知理论构建从企业人力资源管理实践、团队内隐协调到团队创造力研究模型的基础上,通过25家企业的95个跨功能团队的调研数据,利用多层线性技术进行研究分析.研究结果发现,参与导向型人力资源管理实践及其与关系导向型人力资源管理实践的交互作用均能有效提升跨功能团队创造力,且团队内隐协调对上述两者与团队创造力之间的关系分别起部分中介和完全中介作用,而关系导向型人力资源管理实践则与团队创造力和团队内隐协调不存在显著的相关关系.研究结论为跨功能团队在企业无边界化管理中的发展与应用提供了重要启示.     

Using repeated-prevalence data in multi-state modeling of renal replacement therapy

Multi-state models help predict future numbers of patients requiring specific treatments but these models require exhaustive incidence data. Deriving reliable predictions from repeated-prevalence data would be helpful. A new method to model the number of patients that switch between therapeutic modalities using repeated-prevalence data is presented and illustrated. The parameters and goodness of fit obtained with the new method and repeated-prevalence data were compared to those obtained with the classical method and incidence data. The multi-state model parameters’ confidence intervals obtained with annually collected repeated-prevalence data were wider than those obtained with incidence data and six out of nine pairs of confidence intervals did not overlap. However, most parameters were of the same order of magnitude and the predicted patient distributions among various renal replacement therapies were similar regardless of the type of data used. In the absence of incidence data, a multi-state model can still be successfully built with annually collected repeated-prevalence data to predict the numbers of patients requiring specific treatments. This modeling technique can be extended to other chronic diseases.     

New flexible models generated by gamma random variables for lifetime modeling

In this paper we introduce a new three-parameter exponential-type distribution. The new distribution is quite flexible and can be used effectively in modeling survival data and reliability problems. It can have constant, decreasing, increasing, upside-down bathtub and bathtub-shaped hazard rate functions. It also generalizes some well-known distributions. We discuss maximum likelihood estimation of the model parameters for complete sample and for censored sample. Additionally, we formulate a new cure rate survival model by assuming that the number of competing causes of the event of interest has the Poisson distribution and the time to this event follows the proposed distribution. Maximum likelihood estimation of the model parameters of the new cure rate survival model is discussed for complete sample and censored sample. Two applications to real data are provided to illustrate the flexibility of the new model in practice.