A Note on Exponentially Smoothed Seasonal Differences

Filtering economic time series can be justified if variations within a certain frequency interval are relevant for the problem at hand. It is shown here that exponential smoothing of seasonal differences provides a simple means of damping short oscillations, including seasonal ones.     

P-value adjustment for multiple binary endpoints

The p-value-based adjustment of individual endpoints and the global test for an overall inference are the two general approaches for the analysis of multiple endpoints. Statistical procedures developed for testing multivariate outcomes often assume that the multivariate endpoints are either independent or normally distributed. This paper presents a general approach for the analysis of multivariate binary data under the framework of generalized linear models. The generalized estimating equations (GEE) approach is applied to estimate the correlation matrix of the test statistics using the identity and exchangeable working correlation matrices with the model-based as well as robust estimators. The objectives of the approaches are the adjustment of p-values of individual endpoints to identify the affected endpoints as well as the global test of an overall effect. A Monte Carlo simulation was conducted to evaluate the overall family wise error (FWE) rates of the single-step down p-value adjustment approach from two adjustment methods to three global test statistics. The p-value adjustment approach seems to control the FWE better than the global approach Applications of the proposed methods are illustrated by analyzing a carcinogenicity experiment designed to study the dose response trend for 10 tumor sites, and a developmental toxicity experiment with three malformation types: external, visceral, and skeletal.     

Reporting cumulative proportion of subjects with an adverse event based on data from multiple studies

Experience has shown us that when data are pooled from multiple studies to create an integrated summary, an analysis based on naïvely‐pooled data is vulnerable to the mischief of Simpson's Paradox. Using the proportions of patients with a target adverse event (AE) as an example, we demonstrate the Paradox's effect on both the comparison and the estimation of the proportions. While meta analytic approaches have been recommended and increasingly used for comparing safety data between treatments, reporting proportions of subjects experiencing a target AE based on data from multiple studies has received little attention. In this paper, we suggest two possible approaches to report these cumulative proportions. In addition, we urge that regulatory guidelines on reporting such proportions be established so that risks can be communicated in a scientifically defensible and balanced manner. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The Contribution of Internal and External Resources to Emotional Adjustment: A Comparison of At-Risk and Normative Adolescents

The article discusses the differences between normative and at-risk adolescents with regard to the contribution of background variables (gender and age), internal resources (mastery and emotional maturity), and external resources (parental support and peer support) to their emotional adjustment. The results indicate lower levels of mastery, emotional maturity, parental, and peer support among the at-risk adolescents, than the normative adolescents, and the former display more emotional symptoms. The findings also show that gender does not contribute to emotional adjustment in either research group. In the normative group, the age of the adolescent was found to have a small contribution. With regard to internal resources, while both mastery and emotional maturity were found to contribute significantly in the at-risk group, only the emotional maturity of the adolescent was found to contribute in the normative group. Of the external resources, contrary to the research hypotheses, the contribution of peer support was not found to be higher in the normative group. In both groups, and particularly the normative one, parental support contributed to emotional adjustment. The discussion suggests explanations for the research findings and their implications, as well as recommendations for further research.     

辽宁与朝鲜经贸合作的战略思考

辽宁省边境地区与朝鲜的经济贸易合作不仅是辽宁对外开放总体战略的重要组成部分,而且关系到我国的国家利益。分析了中朝双方经贸合作的基础和优势,对双方经贸合作的现状和存在的问题进行了较深入地探讨,并提出了加强双方贸易秩序管理,建立贸易信息平台,广泛开展多方式、多层次的经贸合作等相应的对策和建议。     

论学校管理伦理的四大功能

学校管理伦理具有导向功能、调节功能、激励功能、教化功能。认识学校管理伦理的这些功能,可以让我们从动态上整体地把握学校管理伦理的本质和特征,深入了解学校管理伦理对于学校管理活动的重要意义和价值。     

浅析存货暂估入账的具体账务处理

本文着眼于从实务的角度的,从要不要暂估增值税、如何设置会计科目、要不要每月月初冲回、如何对应每一笔暂估账款及要不要进行纳税调整等角度探讨存货暂估入账的具体会计处理。     

试论网络传播与记者传播方式的调适

:作为第四大传播媒介 ,互联网以其交互性、信息量大、传播权利平等 ,将传统媒体整合为一等巨大优势 ,对传统媒体 (广播、电视、报纸等 )构成威胁。但网络时代的到来并不意味着传统媒体记者“下岗时代的来临”,只要记者面对新兴媒体作传播方式的调适 ,即转换传播观念、重新认识受众、提高质量意识、学会数字化生存和“超链接”文本写作等 ,记者仍然是网络新闻传播的主力军     

民族地区特殊的社会关系及其战略调整

一定的社会是由特定的社会关系建立起来的，它既是社会个体和群众赖以生存和发展的基本条件，又是人们社会行动的基本限定要素。民族地区的社会关系既有一般性又有特殊性，民族关系实质上是一种特殊的社会关系，调整和构建和谐的社会关系对促进民族地区的发展和繁荣具有重要意义。     

Understanding the 2001 UK census migration and commuting data: the effect of small cell adjustment and problems of comparison with 1991

Summary.  Origin–destination statistics have been produced from the last three UK censuses. The paper describes what is new about the 2001 census interaction data on migration and commuting, considers the disclosure control methods that were applied to cells containing small values and demonstrates the problems that are associated with making comparisons with 1991 data. The effect of small cell adjustment procedures on the interaction data sets is investigated by means of selective analyses at different spatial scales. Some recommendations are made in light of the problems that were manifest in 2001.