Conditional covariance penalties for mixed models

The prediction error for mixed models can have a conditional or a marginal perspective depending on the research focus. We introduce a novel conditional version of the optimism theorem for mixed models linking the conditional prediction error to covariance penalties for mixed models. Different possibilities for estimating these conditional covariance penalties are introduced. These are bootstrap methods, cross-validation, and a direct approach called Steinian. The behavior of the different estimation techniques is assessed in a simulation study for the binomial-, the t-, and the gamma distribution and for different kinds of prediction error. Furthermore, the impact of the estimation techniques on the prediction error is discussed based on an application to undernutrition in Zambia.     

The business of writing: literature as a commodity in Claudia Piñeiro’s Betibú

This article presents considerations about the status of literature as a commodity and writers as professionals in the twenty-first century. These considerations are based on an analysis of Argentine writer Claudia Piñeiro’s Betibú (2011), which follows the story of an Argentine crime novel writer who becomes a ghostwriter after her latest novel receives harsh reviews for being considered commercial rather than literary. I argue that the novel in question points out misconceptions about the influence of the book industry on the aesthetic quality of literary writing, highlighting the need for literary criticism to look into everyday relations between readers, authors, and editors.     

Bootstrapping Periodic State-Space Models

This article is concerned with how the bootstrap can be applied to study conditional forecast error distributions and construct prediction regions for future observations in periodic time-varying state-space models. We derive, first, an algorithm for assessing the precision of quasi-maximum likelihood estimates of the parameters. As a result, the derived algorithm is exploited for numerically evaluating the conditional forecast accuracy of a periodic time series model expressed in state space form. We propose a method which requires the backward, or reverse-time, representation of the model for assessing conditional forecast errors. Finally, the small sample properties of the proposed procedures will be investigated by some simulation studies. Furthermore, we illustrate the results by applying the proposed method to a real time series.     

Self‐Esteem,the Fear of Crime,and the Decision to Protect Oneself From Victimization

This research extends prior work that examines self‐esteem as an outcome of protective behaviors against crime victimization by focusing instead on the moderating influence of self‐esteem on the relationship between the fear of crime and the decision to protect oneself from victimization. The fear of crime is conceptualized as two separate components (fear of victimization and perceived risk) in accordance with prior work. Self‐esteem is conceptualized as three separate components (worth, efficacy, and authenticity), and measured with a recently designed instrument for capturing each aspect of self‐esteem separately. Data are collected through surveys of a population at high risk for victimization (undergraduate college students). Logistic regression analyses demonstrate that self‐esteem does play a role for deciding whether to engage in protective behaviors, and that the specific components of self‐esteem moderate defensive behavioral outcomes differently. Specifically, the self‐worth, self‐efficacy, and authenticity components of self‐esteem influence the decision to carry protection, but not the decision to take a self‐defense class. Implications for both the fear of crime and self‐esteem literatures are addressed.     

胡尖山地区长 6、长 4+5 储层有利区预测

摘要：以胡尖山油田长 6、长 4+5 油藏为例，综合应用地质资料、岩芯分析资料、测井资料以及试油资料，开展了长 6和长 4+5 油藏小层划分和对比、单井相分析，建立测井相识别模式，编制小层沉积相平面展布图，进而分析沉积相演化规律；探讨储层砂体展布以及物性分布规律，从而深入认识研究区的储层特征。在此基础上对储层进行流动单元的划分，然后结合试油资料对胡尖山油田长 6、长 4+5 油藏的储层进行有利区域的预测，为油田待开发区域的合理建产开发提供了理论指导     

Adolescents’ perceptions of the ‘substance use-violence nexus’: a South African perspective

The aim of the study was to explore adolescents’ perceptions of substance use as a contributing factor to community violence by employing a conceptual framework proposed by Goldstein. Data were collected from a sample of adolescents between the ages of 15 and 16 years by means of focus group interviews. Theoretical thematic analysis was used to analyse and interpret the findings. The participants’ perceptions indicated that substance use and withdrawal symptoms induce physiological and behavioural modifications resulting in aggression and violence. The findings also suggest that participants believed that substance users frequently commit property and violent interpersonal crimes such as theft, robbery, assault and murder to procure their substances. Further, the adolescents’ perceived violence to be rooted within gang culture as well as the involvement in shared markets for illicit substance trading.     

Bid-rigging networks and state-corporate crime in the construction industry

This study highlights the symbiotic relationship that may arise between political and business actors in conspiracies organized around public construction bids. Based on a core-periphery social network analysis, the study tracks the emergence of such a conspiracy in the city of Laval (Canada) by illustrating the evolution of bid-rigging networks revolving around suspected and persistent acts of corruption, bid-rigging, and bribery. To assess this process, the study monitors irregular bidding indicators across a data set compiled from more than 7000 public construction tenders that were processed by the city from 1966 to 2013. Findings reveal that firms suspected of bid-rigging activities were perennial core participants largely as a result of a state-corporate crime system that served as the guiding force for agreements between the main construction entrepreneurs.     

论拒不执行判决、裁定罪的犯罪构成之改革

拒执罪以立法形式出台以来,虽对"执行难"的情况起到了一定的遏制作用,但由于在犯罪对象、犯罪行为、犯罪主体等构成要件方面存在重大立法缺陷,致使执行实务中适用此罪的情形尚不多;在"诚信守约"的社会风尚遭到严重破坏的新时代背景下,除保护其法益之外,拒执罪的任务还应包括保护"社会信用";拒执罪应以保护"人民法院判决、裁定的正常执行活动和人民法院判决、裁定的权威性"和构建"社会信用体系"为改革方向,以与其他相关的社会信用体系的法律制度形成动态衔接为改革方法,从犯罪对象、犯罪行为和犯罪主体三个方面对犯罪构成进行改革,从而改善本罪的适用状况、推进社会信用体系建设。