Framing Emerging Environmental Movement Tactics: Mobilizing Consensus,Demobilizing Conflict

This paper is a study of an emerging environmental decision-making model that attempts to move beyond traditionally adversarial approaches toward consensus building. Consensus-based decision making ostensibly allows activists equal power with industrialists and state actors in environmental policy-making. This research builds upon the growing literature on frame-analysis by demonstrating that there are instances when challengers actually engage in collaborative framing with their adversaries. This does not presume that activists reject oppositional framing altogether. In these cases, environmentalists actually draw on a mixture of confrontation and negotiation in this innovative form of collective action that positions them in contexts most environmentalists never experience—a place at the decision-making table with elites. This study reveals that environmentalists are becoming more sophisticated in their efforts to protect local communities and natural resources.     

Role of Comparative Risk Assessment in Addressing Environmental Security in the Middle East

During the 21st century, environmental challenges are likely to intensify across the world and possibly lead to violent conflicts. Strategies for conflict avoidance will be incomplete unless they recognize, discuss, and mitigate regional environmental stress factors. Comparative risk assessment (CRA) is one of the most critical tools emerging to influence modern environmental policies and is increasingly used to create a common language to help reconcile competing interests in development and environmental disputes around the world. This article considers the environmental challenges facing the Middle East in light of their "transboundary" nature and proposes CRA as a framework for setting environmental priorities and reducing tensions in the region.     

侵华日军细菌战诉讼案回顾与思考

20 0 2年 8月 2 7日 ,侵华日军细菌战受害者向日本政府索赔一案 ,在日本东京地方法院作出一审判决 ,认定了 731部队等在中国实施细菌战的事实 ,但驳回了原告的诉讼请求。细菌战诉讼案的实践 ,给了我们诸多启示 :对日索赔案的实质是政治斗争 ;细菌战诉讼案将是长期的、艰苦的斗争 ;我们应抢救历史 ;对侵华日军细菌战史的学术研究应该加强。     

The Quality of Stakeholder-Based Decisions

The increased use of stakeholder processes in environmental decision making has raised concerns about the quality of decisions these processes produce. Some claim that stakeholders make inadequate use of scientific information and analysis and are all too ready to sacrifice technical quality for political expediency. This article looks to the case study record to examine the quality of the decisions from stakeholder-based processes. The data for the analysis come from a "case survey," in which researchers coded information from 239 published case studies of stakeholder involvement in environmental decision making. These cases reflect a diversity of planning, management, and implementation activities carried out by environmental and natural resource agencies at many levels of government. Overall, the case-study record suggests that there should be little concern that stakeholder processes are resulting in low-quality decisions. The majority of cases contain evidence of stakeholders improving decisions over the status quo; adding new information, ideas, and analysis; and having adequate access to technical and scientific resources. Indeed, data suggest that it is the more intensive stakeholder processes--precisely those that have aroused recent concern--that are more likely to result in higher-quality decisions.     

Measurement error, skewness, and risk analysis: coping with the long tail of the distribution.

Probabilistic risk analyses often construct multistage chance trees to estimate the joint probability of compound events. If random measurement error is associated with some or all of the estimates, we show that resulting estimates of joint probability may be highly skewed. Joint probability estimates based on the analysis of multistage chance trees are more likely than not to be below the true probability of adverse events, but will sometimes substantially overestimate them. In contexts such as insurance markets for environmental risks, skewed distributions of risk estimates amplify the "winner's curse" so that the estimated risk premium for low-probability events is likely to be lower than the normative value. Skewness may result even in unbiased estimators of expected value from simple lotteries, if measurement error is associated with both the probability and pay-off terms. Further, skewness may occur even if the error associated with these two estimates is symmetrically distributed. Under certain circumstances, skewed estimates of expected value may result in risk-neutral decisionmakers exhibiting a tendency to choose a certainty equivalent over a lottery of equal expected value, or vice versa. We show that when distributions of estimates of expected value are, positively skewed, under certain circumstances it will be optimal to choose lotteries with nominal values lower than the value of apparently superior certainty equivalents. Extending the previous work of Goodman (1960), we provide an exact formula for the skewness of products.     

电子商务对企业定价决策的影响分析及对策

互联网的普及为买卖双方实现交易提供了便利的同时,网上的价格比较侵蚀了商品的价格底线。文章分析了电子商务对企业定价的冲击,给出了“成本透明”条件下企业定价决策的若干建议。     

无外部市场条件下中间产品转移价格的博弈分析与决策

本文首先用反例证明了文^[1]中在各分厂成本函数和最终产品需求函数已知的条件下,给出的中间产品最优转移价格的两个计算公式并不总是成立的,给出了这两个计算公式成立的充要条件,并分析了公司关于中间产品转移价格决策的动态一致性问题。接着,利用完全信息动态博弈对中间产品转移价格的确定问题做了进一步的分析研究。最后,针对文^[1]中给出的中间产品最优转移价格的两个计算公式不成立的情况,讨论了中间产品转移价格的确定问题。     

对方案有偏好的不确定语言多属性决策方法

研究了属性权重完全未知、属性值和对方案的偏好值以不确定语言变量形式给出的不确定语言多属性决策问题。首先,引入不确定语言变量的运算法则,以及不确定语言变量之间比较的可能度公式,给出了不确定语言变量间的距离的概念。针对属性权重完全未知的情形,给出了求解权重的公式。然后,利用不确定语言加权平均算子,对不确定语言决策信息进行加权集成,并利用可能度公式构造可能度矩阵(互补判断矩阵),继而利用互补判断矩阵排序公式对决策方案进行排序和择优。最后进行了实例分析。     

多个不确定性因素下跨国公司投资策略

利用实物期权方法,在汇率、国内外生产成本和产品价格均不确定的情况下,把跨国企业迁移生产和销售的空间决策柔性(spatial decision flexibility)模型为交换期权,分别给出了迁移生产的最优下界和迁移销售的最优上界、及其迁移决策规则,并讨论了关键参数对迁移决策规则的影响。最后,给出应用迁移生产和销售决策规则的数值模拟算例,体现了本文给出的决策规则在实际应用中具有可操作性。     

Bounded rationality and consumer choice: an evaluation of consumer choice of mobile bundles

Although numerous prior studies have examined consumer valuations in bundling transactions from a theoretical perspective, relatively few have focused on large datasets. In addition, little prior research has targeted developing telecommunication markets. To address these gaps in the literature, we examine the rationality of consumers' bundling choices in the mobile telecommunication industry, using operational data from China Telecom. We compare the current prices paid by consumers to the optimal prices of alternative bundling plans, based on the consumers' actual usage. We determine whether bundling choice is affected by risk aversion, the complexity of the bundle, and learning effects. The findings suggested that many users chose sub-optimal bundles that were more expensive than others were. The results showed that consumers were risk averse, and they were more likely to make non-optimal bundle selections with more complex usage patterns. No significant differences were found according to gender, age, or usage level.